To The Moon

Last night, the US stocks enjoyed a long-awaited rally, with three major index- $S&P 500(.SPX)$ (3,936.69) up 2.76%, $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ (11,713.15)up 3.11%, $DJIA(.DJI)$ (31,827.05) up 2.43%. $Netflix(NFLX)$ surged 5.61% after its good guidance. Data from tradingview Under this background, we may question is it a rebound or a reversal of the bear market. We gonna analyze when the market will reach the bottom. 1. Bottom After Earnings Season? Recently, many influnencers said that the market may bottom after this earnings season. Mainly because: a. Market--$S&P 500(.SPX)$ already fell too much and has a very low P/E. There is no much room for subsequent plunge. b. The earnings season may bring very high volatility. If one big company released a disappointing earnings, the broader market will be dragged down. For example, $Apple(AAPL)$ made the whole market down the other day because it reported a "slow-hiring" guidance. c. It's expected that CPI may top in June, i.e. the inflation can be curbed, because the oil prices fell from its high recently. To learn more about their opinions, you can click: Gene Munster: Market Will Hit Bottom After Earnings Season In Bear Market, Leader Stocks Tends Bottom Before Indexes Market Still in Extremely Fear: 10 Indicators to Check Bottom Reverse 2. Bottom Before The End of Earnings Season? The long-awaited rally seems unreal after bear trend in the past 7 months. However, based on the above reasons on why the market can reach bottom after earnings season, we can also conclude that: a. From the technical analysis, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ may rise above the upper blue circle as it already filled the lower gap. Data from tradingview b. Probably there are no more big surprises in this earnings season. So far, the worrying $Netflix(NFLX)$ also enjoyed a rally although it lost 970,000 subscirbers in the 2Q. $Apple(AAPL)$ already reported the slow hiring and its earnings won't cause too much volatility because the market already priced in it. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ won't surprise the investors as it released data regularly. c. Rate hike expectations from cmegroup also lowered to 33.2%. (compared to 82% last week) Data from cmegroup.com What do you think of the recent rally: A happy rebound or cautious of earnings season? Do you think the market reach bottom during/after the earnings season/more challenges ahead? Share your comments and like me to win tiger coins~ Don't forget to follow me and join the latest discussion!