Gene Munster: Market Will Hit Bottom After Earnings Season
This article is an excerpt from Gene Munster, Loup Ventures managing partner, who joined the 'Power Lunch'.
Here are the 2 key points of his talk, and may be helpful for investors.
- if the tech sector is near a bottom?
- what investors are likely to hear from companies in September?
1. Is the worst over for tech?
In this year, it’s a good position for us to have 50% in cash, which may be a bad situation in the last year.
Gene Munster said:
Tech has bottomed and bottom is not a single point. It is a forming of a bottom and I think we're in the early stages of that.
In particular,there are some positive signs:
- l $Micron Technology(MU)$ adjusted income guidance is down by 20%.
- l Last week stock closed down 3%.
- l June CPI reached 9.1% and rates are going to be up.
Some institutions would say that the commentary is going to be negative about September. But I think we're gonna hit a bottom probably after this earnings season.
And part of it is not just because the commentary I thinkresets a bar, but moreimportantly, the market looks six months forward. So the markets mentality, especially with big tech, is already in early 2023. And I suspect that some of these downward revisions that we're gonna see in the next few weeks, sets up for an easier bar and 2023.
So as you kind of play this forward and think about the bottom of forming over the next couple of months, and I think 2023 is going to be a great year for tech.
2. What's the big deal about September and what companies are likely to say and what you think we're likely to hear?
Well, the important part is just resetting that bar. And I think that what investors want is for companies to exceed expectations. They don't want surprises.
So in the theory is that the September quarter is the I think the first true reset quarter.
We've looked at the commentary from companies of March & June report commentary. And we looked at 20 the top rated companies. And six of them had negative commentary about June. I think it's going to be more like 12 or 20. We'll have some negative commentary.
Gene Munster said:
But I see that as kind of a changing moment here allows tech investors in particular just to take a deep breath and and say yes, we've been waiting for these cuts. Now the cuts have happened. Now we can start even more fully embracinga easier 2023.
Do you think the tech sector is near a bottom next quarter?
Share your thoughts and win tiger coins~
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Serious? [Doubt]