To The Moon

Happy Spring Festival everyone! I was quite happy yesterday, but this morning WHEN I got up and saw the closing price, I was not so happy. I felt it was necessary to sort out my current thoughts.

January end of the market for the end of the month line, burst the short, 3 consecutive rise, there is a rebound that flavor. Good earnings from AMD and Google and Google's dividend also seem to confirm that the market rally will continue

But BTC was strange last night, quietly diving while the market was cheering, closing down 5%. At that time I did not think too much, the bear market rebound is not good to do, there is a contradiction between good and bad is very normal, what big bad can pressure over the split good? With that in mind, I bought $Google A(GOOGL)$, ignored PYPL, which dropped 17%, and happily went for A late-night snack.

You can see the results today. $Meta Platforms(FB)$Q1 Platforms earnings, down 20%, $Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$Stop annual subscription guidance earnings, down 10%.

Advertising, payment, all gone. Who's next? Amazon $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Earnings Thunder?

Not necessarily, at least according to Google and Apple's financial reports, advertising is not a problem; From the $United Parcel Service Inc(UPS)$ earnings, although the macro data of the American people's pocket money is tight, but express logistics is still thriving. However, express delivery data can only be a reference, after all, there is a lag between production and demand.

Why do Netflix, FB, SPOT and Google and Apple report so much against each other?

Beyond the generic excuse of Apple privacy policy, I think the most important thing is that long video and text photo communities are not competitive with short video Platforms, so I have no intention of bottom-fishing for $Meta Platforms(FB)$and $Netflix (NFLX)$.

The way people spend their time has completely changed. Netflix can also say that new shows don't appeal, but FB doesn't. There was no room for intervention in the field of short video, and FB felt it could not make a difference in this red sea, so it stepped into the meta-universe. FB and Netflix are losing out on traffic distribution driven by device and bandwidth advances, and so is the audio community SPOT.

Another reason not to buy Netflix, of course, is that Bill Ackerman, a money manager keen on rescuing has-been stocks, has also come in. I also temporarily wait-and-see FB, this decline is bound to be some strange institutions come in to copy the bottom, resulting in more and more deep copy.

As a matter of fact, the first stage of FB and Netflix has already been settled. The most critical impact is that if one of the pillars of the house falls down, what will be the impact on the house? Such a heavyweight company in the cause of the fall, will bring a chain effect and then bring collapse of the market?

We should know that market value is not only a number, but also represents the size of the industrial chain. For example, when Apple lowered its sales forecast, it represented the downward revenue forecast of millions of companies behind it. Apple is down 10%, and chain companies could be down 50%. At present, we can only be glad that the biggest industry chain of FB is advertising.

My experience with U.S. stocks is still too shallow, and this level of turnover should be common in THE history of U.S. stocks. I still remember that someone once suggested not to go into the market value trap when screening targets. Stocks with a market value of more than 200 billion are not safe, because the 200 billion you can see now are all 200 billion companies that have arrived now, and more 200 billion died in the long river of history.

The influence of replacement on the market remains to be studied.

Finally, trading strategies.

The current market is very complex, from the above summary can also see that the market is far less easy than before, a little omission will be taught by the market. The option strategy is not omnipotent, the direction of the strategy can not be contrary to the market, can only consider how to minimize the loss when the opposite, do not think about making money.

If you have no idea where the market is headed, wait for Musk's bottom-fishing signal. Be prepared to stop your losses if you have an idea. The market is as volatile as a washing machine.

Whether FB can hold the bottom is one of the key factors to maintain the market. From the point of view of the average, the stock price 252 is exactly the annual K support level, and the next support level is 231 and 223. According to the range of this year's correction THAT I thought before, it is basically in place, but the impact on the market remains to be further observed. Falling to within a year and falling to within a day are two completely different concepts.

Another key factor is Amazon's earnings tomorrow. If Amazon, Google, Apple and Microsoft all report good results, the market can remain wide swings; But if it goes south, the consequences could be catastrophic.

The stock pool list will be updated after this earnings season.