To The Moon

If every trick is a trick, then the trick is not a trick.

If you are a veteran player of THE U.S. stock market or have been following my articles, you will find that the ups and downs of the U.S. stock market before and after every major announcement are the opposite: the market drops the day before the good news hits the market, and the market rises the day before the bad news hits the market.

Knowing this rule can stop the rush of thinking during booms and busts and tell yourself to wait. So this rule for me is just a signal, but also not to lose money, that is enough. In fact, my impression is that there is a probability of events landing before and after the market trend is the same.

1、CPI

The biggest event of the week, January CPI, came in worse than expected, rising 7.5% y/Y versus 7.3%, the highest since February 1982.

Ten-year yields shot up to 1.974%, heading for 2%.

What does the market think of such data?

Before the announcement, markets were pricing in around five hikes this year, while US interest rate futures now point to closer to six hikes in 2022.

Most people knew it would be either 25 basis points or 50 basis points in March, but put the probability of a 50 basis point increase at just 27 percent, while U.S. interest rate futures after the data suggested the market was betting on a 43 percent chance of a 50 basis point increase.

So the whole thing just collapsed. Don't look for reasons for your stock to fall, it's all big.$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$

2、It's a shame Disney's earnings bet didn't work, but that's okay. Judging from the companies reporting today, the ups and downs are the norm this quarter, especially for growth stocks. So just keep betting with profits, and keep playing small.$Doximity, Inc.(DOCS)$ $Twilio(TWLO)$ $Canada Goose(GOOS)$

​$Affirm Holdings, Inc.(AFRM)$ Options were adjusted due to yesterday's jump,$AFRM 20220211 60.0 PUT$，still bearish. Companies reporting earnings tomorrow are also worth watching.$Confluent, Inc.(CFLT)$ $Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$