To The Moon

On a similar Friday, the market fell sharply.

If you had told me last year that ROKU$Roku Inc(ROKU)$ would drop to $100 in six months, I wouldn't have believed it. Just as I woke up in the middle of the night and saw a put bet at $100, how bad would it take to go from $140 to $100?

I woke up early Friday morning to find that ROKU was down 9%. At this point, any of the put's listed in this article are incredibly expensive

Why is ROKU down 9%? Oh, the market collapsed.

This is a loophole in the original article. In the original guide, it was written that you should buy Call if there was a big drop, but if there was a big drop in the market, even if ROKU's earnings could open higher, it would go lower, so it is not appropriate to buy Call.

But all the puts listed in the article are extremely expensive, because the stock has already fallen 9%. Theoretically, there is not much room for further declines after earnings. Moreover, the probability of a sharp drop followed by a sharp drop is not very common.

But WAKE up I am not willing to go to sleep so, so from the big single change to find inspiration, found more outrageous. Abnormal move big single unexpectedly bought is the strike price of 100 this week put!$ROKU 20220218 100.0 PUT$

The "put" is cheap, but cheap is cheap. If the "put" in the instruction manual does not make money, then the "put" at this price will only send money to the market.

In spite of all the difficulties, I chose to buy this PUT$ROKU 20220225 100.0 PUT$. It has a cushion of time value, and the price is really cheap, so I can not pay the pain from the profit.

Then I fell asleep.

Get up the next day, the feeling is very shocked, how can fall so much!

But if you ask me if I regret the operation last night, I answer no, because there is really no extra profit to pay the gambling fee. As described before, a big drop followed by a big drop is very rare, dozens of hundreds of companies every day, can drop more than 15% of the two or three, from the perspective of the probability is very low, so very low probability bet should pay attention to cost performance.

You might wonder why I'm so stingy about selling put for a couple of weeks without losing $1,000 on the bet. This problem is mainly because I cut Google$Alphabet(GOOG)$ , which eats up most of the profits, so I became very cheap in operation.

The advantage of the bull market is to operate casually, the probability of winning is very large, while the bear market is on the contrary, the test is that you do not make the decision to operate, the operation is much larger.

Miss the bull market.

Have a great weekend, everyone.