Will China market be bullish again?

Bearish Sentiment in China

In the 2020s, the news of Evergrande's debt leveraging, Alibaba's mishap and DIDI's removal has shook the world.

We have experienced a huge downfall in Chinese market for the last 12 months due to the intervention of CCP.

Be it your Hang Seng Index or Shanghai Composite Futures, or different Chinese equities.

Most of them have taken a beating of at least 20-60% during the last 2 years.

CCP's actions

In my fair opinion, I believe the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has applied those methods as a form of deleveraging their economy.

As they are aware of China's excessive indebtedness in their own market, which ultimately triggered a property meltdown last year.

Their actions prevented the next US financial crisis in 08 and 09s.

However, there is repercussion to their actions, that causes fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD) throughout the world.

Most analysts deem Chinese stocks as dead or scam, while others saw it as an opportunity to invest.

China Current Situation as of now..

It is unclear how Chinese stocks will grow in the next few years..

The start of the year has shown PBoC and Chinese government has injected stimulus to their economy to recover the market.

- On December 27, the MoF reiterated that it would “strengthen the coordination and linkage of fiscal and monetary, employment, and other policies” and added that the government will “give play to the role of fiscal policy to stabilise investment and promote consumption.”

- On January 5, Premier Li said the government should implement “new and greater combined tax and fee cuts to ensure a stable start for the economy in Q1 and stabilise the macroeconomics".

- The PBoC recently added a new call to “take more proactive measures to boost support for the real economy” and “better stabilise the aggregate credit growth” as well as “bring down the overall financing costs for businesses.”

A glimmer of hope has been shown for most Chinese's investors, whom have held their stocks in HKSE or SZSE for the last 24 months.

But that is still insufficient to move the market quickly back to the bull market.

And below, we show the opposite price action in China’s stocks and bonds relative to the US.



The graph shows that Chinese market is now quite attractive as compared to the US market. And Bond Yields have room to fall, which makes stocks more attractive in the long run compared to the US market, which is relatively overextended as we speak.

My Opinion

I believe the Chinese government will do what it takes to ensure stability in longer term for their economy and to regain investors back into their stock exchange. In addition, I am certain that Chinese stocks are at a discounted price as of now [for fundamentally strong businesses only]. 

With that i have accumulated quite a few positions for Chinese stocks and i will continue to add and find undervalue stocks in the Chinese market.

May the market be ever in your favour~

$Alibaba(09988)$$TENCENT(00700)$$BYD COMPANY(01211)$

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  • ValuInvestor
    ·2022-02-09
    Bullish long term but in the short term, I see headwinds with their zero covid strategy, geopolitics, and structural issues like housing debt. It’s a large economy and has the room to grow.
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    • Sunraya
      Absolutely, definitely less experience when handling crisis compared to US and UK. However, with the huge amount of talent pool in China. I believe they will be much more efficient in the future.
      2022-02-09
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  • Joelchua
    ·2022-02-10
    China will continue to do well. Theres alot more to grow in the rural areas too for urbanization!
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    • sunflower19Replying toSunraya
      yes.. true!
      2022-02-12
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    • Sunraya
      Yes, once rural areas become urbanised by tech. We will see exponential growth
      2022-02-10
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  • Angelinvest
    ·2022-02-09
    Let China sleep, for when she
    awakes, she will shake the world.
    -Napoleon
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    • Sunraya
      Well said!
      2022-02-09
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  • invinsor
    ·2022-02-09
    china will surpass US as largest economy in a few years. stock mkt will go up high again.
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    • Sunraya
      Highly doubt that! But there is a probability. Never know..
      2022-02-12
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  • Wayneqq
    ·2022-02-13
    Excellent perspective.. china look at things in decades instead of quarters.. their policies reflect that.. so one need to have patience when investing in china [Strong]
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    • WayneqqReplying toSunraya
      [Strong]
      2022-02-13
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    • Sunraya
      Well said!
      2022-02-13
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  • Humbly
    ·2022-02-09
    The Chinese government wants a stable economy and a stock market that does not swing wildly. With valuations looking fairly reasonable, I expect 2022 to be a turnaround year for Chinese and HK markets
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  • BangkokBali
    ·2022-02-13
    Isn't the China financial msrket a closed market? As far as I know, only a small proportion of A shares are available for foreign investors. Do correct me if I'm wrong.
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    • Sunraya
      Thats only for Shanghai market, and maybe Beijing market if it’s open. I do know HK and SZ is open for trading, inclusive of A and B shares. However, huge investors will need to be checked [cont]
      2022-02-13
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    • Sunraya
      Before issuing them A class shares. That’s why most of them trade in HK market in HKD. You will see usually big companies venture into HK market for volume and liquidity.
      2022-02-13
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  • KYHBKO
    ·2022-02-12
    I am bullish for the Chinese markets. it is NOT a Robin Hood approach as they addressed issues including anti competition, data security and privacy, leverage and more. may time prove us right.
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    • Sunraya
      Same sentiment! Absolutely agree on your points.
      2022-02-12
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  • RedpillBluep
    ·2022-02-13
    I think EV companies like Nio and Xpeng will still have tons of potential to grow due to the adoption of EVs plus the Chinese Government is seriously trying to reduce smog and pollution.
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    • Sunraya
      It’s all about your gameplan/strategy. If you think they have potential to disrupt other automobile companies. Go for it! As long as you don’t lose money, why not.. [Smile]
      2022-02-13
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  • 88huat
    ·2022-02-12
    Yes i thibk so too. But high regulatory uncertainty remains
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    • Sunraya
      Policies are meant to ensure fair competition and eliminate unfair practices like what happens in the US. E.g, Housing Crisis and Killing innovation. Short term seems gloomy, but not in the long run.
      2022-02-12
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    • 88huat
      .
      2022-02-12
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  • Kingcat
    ·2022-02-09
    agree with @MidasCapital @MengKeng Chinese gov would want to stabilise n grow their markets. Undervalued Chinese stocks will eventually reach their fair value again
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  • Geniethelamp
    ·2022-02-12
    Think still another 1-2 yr wait
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    • Sunraya
      I am uncertain! I see 5 years and more. Once US economy shakes, that’s where China comes. I speculate though.
      2022-02-12
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  • Anh
    ·2022-02-11
    That's assuming China can sustain its COVID-Zero policy in the medium term.
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    • Sunraya
      My guess is, they will admit defeat for the COVID-Zero Policy. It’s almost impossible to do it.
      2022-02-11
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  • TeslaTTM
    ·2022-02-10
    it will never be with political intervention in free market. good luck!
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    • Sunraya
      I will take that!
      2022-02-11
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  • TKY1978
    ·2022-02-10
    Find those stock with good divid end
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    • Sunraya
      Yes and no, sometimes dividends stocks can be bad because of their lack of innovation. But nevertheless, if you are confident in your pick, i think it is wise
      2022-02-10
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  • Bulltrader
    ·2022-02-11
    why byd? do china EV buy battery from byd?
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    • Sunraya
      If you look into financials, you can see ByD is clearly a profitable businesses in the long run. To your 2nd question, i am no battery expert. ByD & TSLA are manufacturing their own batteries. [Cont]
      2022-02-12
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    • Sunraya
      I think both companies are competing in power and duration for rechargable batteries! I have no clue about this. But i do know of a certain, ByD will survive in China in the long run.
      2022-02-12
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    • Sunraya
      I am pretty certain, most of the EV automobiles will buy from ByD in China. XPeng and NiO are just rolling our their vehicles. Comparing to ByD, their EV are being driven across China. [Continuation]
      2022-02-12
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  • Oldhead
    ·2022-02-10
    Always choose the right stocks to invest.
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    • Sunraya
      Correct! Always invest with margin of safety.
      2022-02-10
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  • arijit
    ·2022-02-13
    Better be careful
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  • SPOT_ON
    ·2022-02-10
    HPH Trust posted a profit of HK$1.75 billion (S$301.7 million), a 110.1 % increase from the HK$831.4 million posted in FY2020 !! DPU SURGED 20.8% Y.O.Y !!! CASH & CASH EQUIVALENT STOOD AT HKD 11.05B
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    • SPOT_ON
      BUY THIS GEM WITH UNDERVALUED LOW.P/E AND HIGH DIVIDEND

      MASSIVE PORTS BUSINESS IN HONG KONG AND PEARL RIVER DELTA

      $HUTCHISON PORT HOLDINGS TRUST(NS8U.SI)$

      👍 👍 👍 👍 👍

      2022-02-10
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    • SPOT_ON
      RCEP - WORLD'S LARGEST FREE TRADE AGREEMENT WILL BOOST THIS STOCK SKY HIGH!!!
      2022-02-10
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  • Netfalcon
    ·2022-02-14
    Bullish on China, but affected stocks will keep trading at a steep government intervention discount to account for the added risk, unless the government becomes more trustworthy.
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