To The Moon

The story of Russia and Ukraine continues to be played out, and you come and go, but it doesn't look like you can really join hands. However, the market will not stop because of this. Gold once went up to 1900, while crude oil dropped sharply from a high level. For risky assets, if the oil price of another leading brother can't stand it, it will be a big trouble. After all, the former big brother's US stocks are already crumbling.

Two weeks ago, we gave a little advance notice of the challenges and risks that oil prices will face in terms of price and time period. Last week, crude oil was devoured by extremely negative bears. Fortunately, bulls fought back in the last two trading days, which made the weekly line form not too hip-pulling.However, in any case, we believe that the current position and time node of risky assets can no longer continue to be radical bullish or long.

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​For American Oil, the vicinity of 86 is a metronome that needs attention. After falling below this position and closing the weekly line,Oil prices, US stocks and commodities are all facing more downward pressure. This reason has been introduced to you many times before. Despite the prevailing market narrative that falling oil prices--easing inflation--and weakening Fed pressure--are good for risky assets. However, it is not difficult to find that when the oil price plummets, there are no good days for US stocks.

In fact, before the turning point of accelerating the downward trend in US stocks, it was only a monthly level problem in US stocks.If the S&P index finally closes below 4360 this month, it is also a clear bearish signal. Further down, a large level of support can only be found at 4000 psychological levels and around 3800, which means that there will be about 10-15% space.Even if it remains above that level this month, the risk will not be completely lifted, and the same problem will be faced in March. The only way to solve the trouble is to reach new heights. However, the current situation does not seem to be easy to reach new heights.

At present, we are also looking at another market indicator: copper price. Copper, as one of the main varieties of commodities, has long been called Dr. Copper. After refreshing the historical high in the first quarter of last year, copper prices entered a long high consolidation market. At present, the situation of triangular finishing is very clear. Obviously, choosing to break through down means a full-scale outbreak of risk-off mode, and going down means that there is not much trouble in the short-term market. It should be noted that although the copper price moved slowly for some time in the past, once the market started, the speed might far exceed expectations. Based on this, we believe that copper has the opportunity to do long volatility near the upper and lower tracks of the range.​​

​In the case that the gold express train has left and the speed of US stocks and crude oil cannot get on the train immediately, we can properly consider the trading opportunities for Dr. Copper.

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