To The Moon

1. Global EVs Sales Map in 2021

According to the latest statistical analysis of Autohome Inc, a total of 6.5014 million Energy Vehicles were sold in 2021, an increase of 108% over 2020, and the penetration rate reached 10.2%.

Norway is the country with the highest penetration rate of 89.32%, followed by Sweden with 45.79%, and Denmark with a penetration rate of 36.23%. China has the highest sales of EVs with a global market share of 45.22%, more than four times that of Germany and the United States, and its penetration rate is also above the average level, reaching 13.77%. The European emission reduction policy has still played a role.

Data From AUTOHOME INC, Jan 26th, 2022

The sales of EVs in the United States reached 658,000 units, a year-on-year increase of more than 80%, and the penetration rate reached 4.4%, which is still far lower than that of Europe and China. At present, the penetration rate of 4.4% is still a little far from the "a target of 50% EV sales share in 2030" expected by US President Biden on August 25, 2021.

It's not hard to see that the third-best-selling, but low penetration market, America, still hasn't really adopted EVs. This suggests that Americans still love "powerful" pickup trucks. While The lowest penetration rate was in India, Japan, and Australia. The main reasons may be that Japan has not been enthusiastic about pure electrification, Australia is sparsely populated, and India, the fifth-largest auto market in the world, has just begun to apply the government's incentive plan for EVs.

The highest sales volume electric car in the world in 2021 is the Model 3, with a global registered sales of 507,100 units. The runner-up is Model Y, with global registered sales of 426,000 units. Hongguang MINI EV (parameters | Inquiry) ranks third with a sales volume of 390,000 units.

In terms of brand sales rankings, Tesla, BYD, and Wuling Motors are the top three in terms of sales. Among the top three, only Tesla "sells worldwide", followed by Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes-Benz. The global sales of EVs from the aforementioned companies in 2021 will be 350,000, 250,000, and 230,000 respectively, with growth rates of 62.6%, 57.9%, and 57.5% respectively.

In 2022, as traditional fuel vehicle companies continue to exert their strength, the balance of power in the world EV market will inevitably undergo new changes. 

2. ARK Forecasts EVs Sales Will Increase at a 53% Annual Rate

Regarding the Future of EVs sales, The ARK's BIG IDEAS 2022 Annual Report pointed out that EV sales soared and continued to gain share globally. In contrast, growth in global EV unit sales accelerated from 60% in 2013 to an estimated 112% in 2021.Ark also forecasts that EV sales will increase at a 53% annual rate, to 40 million units in 2026.In their view, the biggest downside to the forecast is whether traditional automakers will be able to transition successfully to electric autonomous vehicles.

ARK expects that sales of smaller, cheaper “neighborhood electric vehicles” will take off by 2026.

Besides that, ARK forecasts that Electric Vehicle Costs Could Rival Gas-Powered Options In 2023. Because the battery cell costs will fall by 28%, EV production costs and sticker prices are likely to drop below those of gas-powered vehicles in the next one to two years and undercut them by 25-35% in 2025.What's More, ARK believes Wright’s Law also models improvements in EV charging rates, the ability to charge an EV quickly is impacted by both the vehicle and the charging infrastructure. Once EV charging rates reach an acceptable level, ARK expects the industry will optimize for other features like autonomous driving, safety, and possibly entertainment.

Final Question For You: 

Do you believe that ARK's expectations in the EVs market will be realized in the future?