What a fantastic reversal from the depths of despair in June to the heights of optimism and hope in July! Such is the level of excitement of the US markets these days!
The financial gurus cannot seem to agree among themselves whether it is a Bear Market Rally or a New Bull Rally.
I believe that it all boils down to 2 factors:
1. The state of the economy - job numbers, GDP, supply constraints. Recently the US economy contracted in the last 2 quarters and technically it is in recession.
2. The action taken by the Feds in regards to raising interest rates. If the Feds are hawkish and continue to raise interest rates, then it will certainly dampen the markets.
The current market is actually pricing in a reduction in the quantum of interest rates in 2023. Moreover the earnings reports especially from Big Tech like Apple and Microsoft were not so bad as the markets had feared.
So the Feds may get their soft landing after all. I am of the opinion that a new Bull Market is on the way and I am sure that many investors would agree with me.
Let's trade with optimism and the belief that the Bull markets will always come back after the Bear goes away.
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Yayayaya papaya
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