To The Moon

What should come will come eventually, but it may be a little late in time.

After a last-ditch rally, gold failed to stand firm at 1800 and last week pierced both this year's and last year's lows. With the emergence of the new low, investors are most concerned about a topic: Will gold plummet?

To answer this question, in fact, the answer is not difficult, and the conclusion can be drawn basically from two angles. The first is the correlation between our old students' normality. As long as the trend of gold binding US stocks instead of US dollars since the second quarter of this year remains unchanged, it is impossible for gold to reverse Gankun. Because it is very likely that risky assets will continue to be depressed in the next 6-12 months, both fundamentally and logically. Only when gold follows the US dollar again will it become one of the safe-haven options in risk-off mode.

The second observation point can be placed on silver, which can be used as a reference index, whether it is the ratio of gold to silver or the fluctuation of silver price itself. Last week, when gold was under pressure, silver went out of two consecutive suns on the weekly line, which was more or less surprising. If the silver price returns to above 21, it is an important signal for bulls to counterattack.

Since the beginning of this year, the downward trend of high and low points on the weekly line needs to change before it can bring about a turning point. If we refer to the ratio of gold and silver, returning to below 82 will mean that silver is strong and gold is weak, which is also beneficial to the prospect of precious metals.​​

​Going back to gold itself, the strategy actually gave everyone a relatively stable choice a few weeks ago: to do long volatility. Whether it is a true breakthrough or a false breakthrough, derivative decline or short-selling market is profitable.From the simple graphic point of view, the large-scale double-headed form seems very dangerous, and the next strong technical support is far away from 1450.

In the remaining two weeks of this month, if bulls can't exert their strength, the risk of continuing to go down is obvious. However, considering whether gold has rebounded after several previous Fed resolutions, don't be too surprised if the market bottomed out and the monthly line showed a long shadow again.Before FOMC, laying out a two-way volatility option will be the best choice at present.​​

In the medium and long term, the current directional operation of one leg is not a good time. In the follow-up, if silver gets rid of the decline and gold itself has a bottom signal, it will reconsider the long-term long-term layout; If gold is confirmed to go down this month, it should take advantage of the trend and stand on the empty side.

Among the external news factors, apart from monetary policy, if the topics about geopolitics and economic recession rise and drive the mainstream assets to be under overall pressure, it is particularly critical whether gold can show the attribute of safe haven upstream.

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