To The Moon

A break in the USD index above $112 should theoretically have caused a pullback, but it did not; In theory Treasuries should pull back above 4%, but they haven't.

Like Tesla last year, at $900 everyone was looking for a pullback to $1000, but it didn't, and the stock went straight to $1200.

It makes sense to be bullish and bearish at this point, just like Tesla last year. Do you think it's wrong to be bearish? Then it fell. But you say long is not money? How can 900 go to 1,200 and not make money.

But currencies can stay at the top for longer than stocks, and the greater the magnitude of capital, the greater the inertia.

The same is true of crude oil this year, with the top price much higher than the expected short price.

The market is completely following the dollar trend. After FOMC, I said that the bottom would be reached. Judging from the dollar situation, the dollar will not reach the top, and the bottom will be further broken in June. From yesterday's options to look at the large single stock began to have a bullish order, but the ETF generally biased down.

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$

The largest volume was in the put spread and straddle

• ​$SPY 20230317 310.0 PUT$​
• ​$SPY 20230317 350.0 PUT$

and

• ​$SPY 20221021 335.0 PUT$​
• ​$SPY 20221021 335.0 CALL$

The PUT spread is extremely bearish, the option expiration date is very far, which is a broad trend bearish; The straddle of a call, while a call is deep inside, often means that even a bullish call is a limited rally.

The common feature of both strategies is the attempt to avoid the opposite direction of volatility, one strategy is the use of time, the other is the use of in-the-money options.

$iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$

The biggest volume was in the PUT and PUT spreads

$IWM 20231215 165.0 PUT$

and

• ​$IWM 20221021 168.0 PUT$
• ​$IWM 20221021 163.0 PUT$

The directivity of the two orders is obvious, especially the spread is expected to fall below 168 and above 163 in the near future.

$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ)$

Call spreads and straddle strategies

• ​$QQQ 20220926 290.0 CALL$
• ​$QQQ 20220926 285.0 CALL$

and

• $QQQ 20230317 240.0 PUT$
• ​$QQQ 20230317 340.0 CALL$

The CALL spread believes that QQQ will not rise above 285 before September 26.

The spread covers the likely direction of future volatility in both directions.

$Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLK)$

• $XLK 20221118 120.0 PUT$
• $XLK 20221118 105.0 PUT$

As a weighted technology ETF, some traders think the XLK will continue to fall, below 120 and above 105.

It's important to note that both Apple and Google had big calls yesterday,

$GOOGL 20221118 105.0 CALL$

$AAPL 20221021 152.5 CALL$

This contradicts the above trade, as a look at the XLK components suggests that for the XLK to continue its decline, Apple must fall. Currently, only Apple has not fallen below its June low.

DIS also has big Call orders: $DIS 20221216 95.0 CALL$

Tesla has the most mixed views, though it's worth noting that the bullish large order expiration date selection has been pushed back again.

$TSLA 20230915 366.67 CALL$ & $TSLA 20230915 383.33 CALL$

Before the FOMC, the call was generally scheduled to expire in January or March next year. Now the call is scheduled to expire in June through September, consistent with the impact of the Fed delaying and raising the end point of interest rate hikes on the timing of stock market rallies.

At present, the most stable money making in the market is the Sell put (ATVI, KNBE, VMW) of the acquisition company.

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