To The Moon

​$AMD(AMD)$ lowered its guidance again, dragging down the semiconductor sector. Since September, more and more companies decreased their earnings guidances. They spanned multi-industries, such as Nike/Starbucks/Ralph Lauren for retailers, FedEx for transportation, Ford for auto, and Carnival Cruises.

The stock market was led by the US dollar in September, and the negative correlation between the US dollar and US stocks was continuing in October.

S&P 500 index closed at the weekly MA200 level in September, and bounced from here in October. The index rose for two days to fill up for the decline gap created by September 23, but left a bounce gap of 3700-3720. Now the market is extreme, and we just have to wait for a short-term bottom to form when the gap between 3700-3720 is made up.

The MACD indicator showed a golden-cross on a daily basis for the first time since June 24th. I will keep an eye on whether MACD will be quickly folded back. MACD has not given an optimistic signal on a weekly basis, and the S&P 500 may confirm the position of the MA200 repeatedly.​

In regards to the Nasdaq, I hope it stays firmly above its double bottom and does not fall below it. There is no direction to judge for now. Nasdaq's weekly basis closed below the 200-week line last week. As a result, it may become the position of resistance, which is not optimal. Nasdaq's reversal depends on Apple and Microsoft's earnings this month.​October is still difficult to trade. I am cautious about the earnings season. The upcoming CPI release next week can be expected to bring big volatility, so straddle and strangle options strategies may be good choices.

Personally, I will bet primarily on M&A stocks. At present, I hold Twitter's Sell Call, Sell Put for VWM, and ATVI shares + Sell Put + Sell Call.

I will continue to sell Apple’s Put to buy more shares, and I am still willing to bet that Apple will become a strong stock in the recession.

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $Apple(AAPL)$