To The Moon

Most Wall Street banks expect the US economy to fall into recession sometime in 2023. They see more room for downward revisions to corporate earnings expectations in 2023. These downgrades as implying greater volatility for the stock market in early 2023. Why Banks Think There Will be a Market Crash? 1. Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson said the looming earnings recession "could itself be similar to what happened in 2008/2009. This could trigger a new stock market low that is "much worse than most investors expect. "Our advice is not to assume that the market has priced in such an outcome until it actually happens. While inflation has now begun to fall from historic highs, recent signs of weakness in the U.S. economy are worrisome." But Michael noted that there are no signs of systemic financial risk or distress in the housing market are foreseen, and the stock market is not expected to fall 50% as it did in 2008. data from bloomberg Morgan Stanley team forecasts that: The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ could fall to 3,000 next year, which means this index will fall another 22% from last Friday's close. 2. Societe Generale predicted that the US to fall into recession in the first quarter of 2024. We are bearish on the 2023 move, but not as bearish as we were in 2022. With the Fed nearing the end of its current rate hike cycle, returns should be much better in 2023. Under our 'hard soft-landing' scenario assumptions, the index's earnings per share growth rate will pick up to 0% in 2023. The S&P 500 is expected to reach 3,800 points by the end of 2023. We expect corporate earnings growth to be negative in the first half of 2023; the Fed's policy stance to shift in June 2023; and 3. UBS expects to expect the US to fall into recession in the second quarter - fourth quarter of 2023. The S&P 500 will reach 3,900 by the end of 2023, and the index is expected to earn $198 per share in 2023. The situation in 2023 is essentially a 'race' between a moderating inflation and financial environment and an impending shock to economic growth + corporate earnings. History suggests that economic growth and corporate earnings will continue to deteriorate until the financial environment is substantially eased and the market enters a trough." 4. CFRA chief investment strategist Sam Stovall said we're heading into a recession, but next year will be split in half. Stocks are likely to improve in the second half. The S&P 500 is expected to return to this year's October lows in the first half of 2023. However, the recent cooling of inflation provides optimistic signals. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged a 13% total return in the 12 months following 13 major inflationary highs, said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group. In the 10 cases where the index rose after a big spike in inflation, the S&P 500 also had an average total return of 22% in the following year, the firm's data show. Do you think market will crash or not in 2023? Is the investing logic in 2023 similar to that of 2022? What's your target price for SPX. in 2023? Share your thoughts in the comment section and win tiger coins~