To The Moon

Base on what I have gathered, courtesy from lplresearch the average bear market drop is nearly 30% and last about a year. So where are we so far? 

From market peak to trough, S&P 500 is down 27.5% (4818 peak dated 4 Jan and 3491 trough dated 13 Oct) and is about 11 months now so statistically we are nearer to the start of the new bull than continuation of the current bear.

For more details, you can refer to https://www.google.com/amp/s/lplresearch.com/2022/05/18/six-things-to-know-about-bear-markets/amp/

Bull case - so if we are assuming base on the thesis that S&P500 had bottomed, where could it be heading? According to Charlie Bilello (source I had obtained from Twitter), S&P returns on the next calendar year is generally bullish with the exception of 1931. Do note that 1931 happen to be part of the depression era so unless you think our world is coming to an end because of inflation or rate hike or because Jerome Powell wants to end capitalism 😂, it is remotely impossible 😉. By moving 1931 from consideration, the average return from 2008, 1937, 2002 and 1974 comes to 26.3%.

Using the closing price of 3934 as of 9 Dec close, multiple by 26.3% average return would give me 4968 (my optimistic target for S&P 500 in a year's time). However being prudent consider we are still in a bear market, let's half the projected return to 13.15% which would give me a price target of 4451. This is a more realistic target for S&P 500 to achieve in 2023 so let's see.

Bear case - we had that inverted yield curve this year which tends to imply that 'recession is coming'. It may well happen in 2023 ..... or not, no one knows for sure. Statistically it's high probability but not certainty so let's see.

For more details, you are refer to https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2022/12/08/yield-curve-inverts-to-depths-not-seen-since-1980s-raising-recession-fears/?sh=7f90e2ca5022

Price target for the bearish camp. Using the average bear drop of 30% from market peak of 4818, it comes to 3372. Separately from the weekly chart of the S&P 500 weekly, I see some support around 3400 region so my bear case is around 3370-3400 so let's see.

So which camp am I on? Bull or bear? If you have been following my posts, you will know I'm more inclined towards bull. My projection is simply base on past statistics and facts as shown above not crystal ball prediction by plucking the figure from the sky. Of course it can never come with 100% accuracy. No one have that 'god like power' to know for sure where S&P 500 will be in 2023. With past stats as guidance, it give us an idea where we can be heading from here. Hope you like my sharing 😊.