$WTI Crude Oil - Feb 2023(CL2302)$looks like since my last post, consensus on oil has finally shifted post Jackson hole speech.

9 days ago, there was no talk of waning china demand, opec increasing production etc. 

UBS in fact predicted $125 oil in the coming months. 

At the same time UBS predicted recession risk of 60%.

Citibank predicts oil at $70 by 2024 on the basis of recession.

I am going with abt about $80 to $83 based on the argument that:

1. sanctions against Russia oil has effectively failed

2. Russia ability to circumvent sanctions means supply is close to prewar.

3. Energy demand has definitely been increasing but Russia is forced to sell at a cheaper price.

4. Iran supply may hit markets in 6 months time.

Higher baseline interest rates but no recession. 





# Focus on Jackson Hole Annual Meeting

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Report

Comment14

  • Top
  • Latest
  • Ericdao
    ·2022-09-04
    Citibank predict $70 by 2024? I predict $20 by 2050 [LOL]. They must be god to be able to see so far ahead. Rather than to predict, just play along with the trend
    Reply
    Report
  • rogerl
    ·2022-09-01
    thanks for your sharing
    Reply
    Report
  • kelvint
    ·2022-09-04
    Reply
    Report
  • Keke0709
    ·2022-09-04
    👍🏻
    Reply
    Report
  • Bee333
    ·2022-09-04
    👍🏻
    Reply
    Report
  • ben88
    ·2022-09-04
    like.
    Reply
    Report
  • JCWOO
    ·2022-09-02
    Ok
    Reply
    Report
  • Velisian
    ·2022-09-01
    👍🏻
    Reply
    Report
  • Sohtheworld
    ·2022-09-01
    Nicr nicr
    Reply
    Report
  • Prost
    ·2022-09-01
    Ok
    Reply
    Report
  • Avg123
    ·2022-09-01
    👌
    Reply
    Report
  • Nggimseng
    ·2022-09-01
    Nice
    Reply
    Report
  • 江海豚
    ·2022-09-04
    [微笑]
    Reply
    Report
  • Mushroom88
    ·2022-09-04
    K
    Reply
    Report