To The Moon

On Friday, August nonfarm payrolls beat expectations. From the Fed's rate hike probability forecast chart, the probability of a 75 basis point rate hike is 65%, not much changed from last week's 67%. Now we are waiting for the last decisive data before the rate hike, August CPI (September 13). For now, the 75bps hike on September 21 is out of the question.

A look at the details of the non-farm data provides a glimpse of the current boom and bust in various sectors.

Service employment remains robust, with 45K new jobs in the whole goods-producing sector in August, while 263K new jobs in the service sector, maintaining the "goods 1: services 6" labor situation. Among them, the retail sales sector recruitment rebound, the new employment in August, mainly occurred in food and beverage stores 14.6k, department stores and warehouse supermarkets (15.1k, department stores 4.1k, warehouse supermarkets 11k). Food services added 18K jobs in August, reflecting steady demand for eating out.

On Friday, the market opened high and walked low, up and down the amplitude of 3%, the three indexes fell back to 60 days below the line. Today preplate high open, observe whether to break through again.

Individuals continue to maintain the bottom view of weight stocks, such as Apple, Amazon, Google and Microsoft, can continue to sell put.

Option Activity:

$Apple(AAPL)$

Nothing changed on Friday, which is why it's worth mentioning. Friday fluctuated so much, there is no one million big deal, I do not know is the institution to maintain the previous view (bottom), or wait for the layout of the press conference market tonight

$Alibaba(BABA)$ &$Baidu(BIDU)$

Based on the straddle strategy, there may be a big market in the near future, speculation with the Hong Kong stock market volatility consistent. I think that's the beauty of straddling, it doesn't matter if it's up or down, as long as it's big enough you can make money.

$BABA 20221021 95.0 CALL$ & $BABA 20221021 95.0 PUT$

$BIDU 20221021 140.0 CALL$ & $BIDU 20221021 140.0 PUT$

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ &$AMD(AMD)$

It's still a straddle: $NVDA 20220916 135.0 PUT$ & $NVDA 20220916 135.0 CALL$

It was observed that PUT, which opened positions in the early stage, had large orders on Friday. It's supposed to be close position. Could be a bottom signal. It should be noted that the liquidation is not equal to the horse rise:

$NVDA 20230217 140.0 PUT$ $AMD 20220916 100.0 PUT$

$SPDR DJIA ETF(DIA)$

Unlike the QQQ and SPY, the Dow Jones ETF is a large-cap ETF with less active options, but there was an interesting set of large orders traded on Friday, totaling more than $7 million:

• $DIA 20230616 325.0 CALL$
• $DIA 20221021 315.0 PUT$
• $DIA 20221021 338.0 CALL$

From the perspective of chip distribution, the transaction amount of PUT is 1.85 million recently, but the transaction amount of CALL due on June 16, 2023 is 5.78 million.

In my personal opinion, this is a combination of near-term cross + forward call, which means that the long-term is strongly bullish and the near-term is a bit bearish, but it also bets on the possibility that the market will go higher. You can see what different ideas you have.