Goldman: European Gas Crisis May Cost $2 Trln
How expensive is this crisis? Goldman Sachs explained in detail in its report and give suggestions for Europe.
1. More Severe Than 1970s Oil Crisis
A Goldman Sachs study says Europe's energy affordability will reach its limits. Energy expenditures such as electricity and heating bills will grow by $2 trillion (10% of Europe GDP) across the continent next year.
It is equivalent to the total value of Italy's GDP in 2021.
Analysts warn that
the market has underestimated the depth, breadth and structural impact of the crisis. This crisis is more serious than the oil crisis of the 1970s.
In 1973, the global price of oil rose 300%, causing a significant increase in energy prices and triggering a recession in Western countries. Overall growth in Europe at the time fell by 2.5%.
2. 3x The Cost For Households
According to Goldman Sachs' calculations,
a typical European household could have monthly energy costs of up to 500 euros (about $500) by 2023. Compared to an average household energy cost of just €160 per month in 2021, it's a 3x increase.
Plus, the 500 euros is based on stable gas from Russia. As Russia completely cut off gas deliveries to Europe, the bills would reach 600 euros.
The EU have to increase reserves and conserve gas use. The EU also intends to impose a tough gas price cap to Russia, but it will still take time to see how effective this move will be.
But time is the one thing the EU lacks. Russia, by contrast, may have more time to spare.
3. Major Policies For EU
Goldman Sachs suggested that European governments will need to take major policy interventions in the next year in the face of a raging crisis.
Analysts say the EU's proposed cap on Russian gas prices would be a very positive development and could reduce energy pressure on Europe next year. But even if the price cap plan is successfully implemented, the crisis will still be very serious.
It is estimated that the price cap will probably save European households about 650 billion euros a year. But considering the still rapidly rising prices, the bill paid by households will be definitely more.
Analysts believe that the price cap will not completely solve the energy burden.
Goldman Sachs recommended that
- Fiscal spending be increased and taxes be adopted to amortize the cost of energy now over the next 10-20 years.
- Increase investment in renewable energy. This can make energy bill prices drop 75%, and make the future of energy costs more stable.
But renewable energy construction can't be done overnight.
Analysts expect the EU will need to invest more than €1 trillion by 2030 to meet its current renewable energy goals.
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