To The Moon

A friend asked me what I thought Tesla's investor day announcement would do to the stock price. My view is that there is no bearish reason for the investor day and no bullish reason for the market.

Musk has set his imagination and expectations high before this event, so it is not too much to be bullish before the event, or even to give a higher opening for the day. The big question is what happens after the higher opening?

• A Tesla investor meeting is scheduled for March 1, with a few highlights:
• Delivery: Tesla sales are forecast to increase 15-fold to 20 million vehicles by 2030
• Model 2: Whether production of the $25,000 small sedan will be announced
• The new master plan: How to scale up production and further strengthen the vertical integration model to control all aspects of manufacturing batteries and energy storage systems. Including a new generation of low-cost batteries.
• The mass production of cybertrucks and the location of Tesla's new factory.

From the overall situation of the market, the current market atmosphere is relatively tense. Treasury yields rose and the dollar rallied on a string of higher-than-expected data on inflation. Inflation resilience and the concept of non-landing added to the market correction, even in March 50 basis point rate hike probability rose to more than 20 percent, creating downward pressure. These factors from the macro limit Tesla rising ceiling.

Will large options orders show any signs of near-term volatility? It is a pity that the stock price can only be inferred from the recent transaction exercise price in the range of 220-180 volatility, there is no uniform direction on the strategy.

On the current overall trend of Tesla or there are three more suitable strategies can refer to trading

Bear call spread:

• sell $TSLA 20230310 250.0 CALL$ ​
• buy $TSLA 20230310 255.0 CALL$

The strike price was the high point in early October last year, and it is difficult to break through even the major positive news, which is suitable for investment to sell before the day to earn high volatility.

Based on the strike price of the option movement, 220 is the average ceiling. But I think the investors released a lot of good news before the meeting, giving up 220-230 and choosing a safer strike price.

Bull put spread：

• sell $TSLA 20230310 190.0 PUT$ ​
• buy $TSLA 20230310 185.0 PUT$ 

This strategy is biased to continue to positive after the sideways, although the stock price can not go up but also can not fall. 185 to 180 is a safer range.

Bull call spread：

• buy $TSLA 20230317 207.5 CALL$ ​
• sell $TSLA 20230317 220 CALL$ 

If the bullish investor day can choose this strategy, bullish but not overly bullish.

There are also roundabout ways to find institutional direction, such as looking at options movements on ETFs with the largest Tesla holdings$Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLY)$ & $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ .From arkk's options movement, the direction of recent trading is more bearish.