To The Moon

NIO $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ stock once gave me a rich return on investment, and it is still the only stock I hold in Wei Xiaoli. Back to the beginning of 2020, it was a big bet between NIO and Hefei. I made a bet at the table. As a result, this small position finally gained 12 times the investment income (there was a record of speeches at that time, haha), which made me extremely comfortable. 

How did you say that popular sentence? 

- Love to fight for Jia Ai to win.

At that time, in addition to the entry of Hefei, investment in NIO also had a lot to do with NIO as a brand with a different temperament. NIO's electric car started early. Its products are high, its reputation is good, its appearance is amazing, and it has formed a so-called cultural circle - self-communication, word-of-mouth effect, and entering the car is equal to entering the marketing team. And chocolate is not so coincidental. At that time, a friend of mine bought an ES6, and she was full of praise; she was a big trouble with everything that made your whole body numb, so I felt that it was not easy.

In the end, I voted, and I was lucky. I love to fight for Jia Ai to win.

1. You can still be optimistic about the electric vehicle industry with the simplest logic.

With the two electric vehicle positions of NIO and Tesla at the same time, I am sure that the industry will look good.

Although there are repeated repetitions, the electric vehicle industry itself, without talking about valuation, I still think you can close your eyes and look good. The logic is very simple. Sooner or later, 100% of all fuel vehicles will be replaced. Fuel vehicles will be killed by legislation, and will soon be swept into the trash can of history.

The European Union has passed legislation. After 2035, the sale of fuel vehicles was banned. Although legislation has not been established in the United States, Japan and China, it is basically planned around 2035. According to the calculation, the fuel car can be sold for more than ten years, and the replacement of the fuel car may be faster. For example, Audi will not even develop a new internal combustion engine by 2026. The historical mission of the automobile internal combustion engine is about to be completed. In a word, the death sentence for the oil truck has been handed down, and it will be beheaded after the autumn.

The penetration rate of electric vehicles is not very high. There has always been a theory called critical mass in market theory, which is difficult to translate, but it means an innovation. If the proportion of people generally use exceeds a certain threshold pointing, the penetration rate will accelerate. It's a little similar to that one "individual decision after another" piled up little by little, and finally the quantity changed to qualitative change. Gradually, the "individual" decision became a "collective" decision, and the whole society accepted the innovation. The critical point of qualitative change is critical mass, which has been verified when innovations such as the Internet and smartphones occur.

What is the specific size of the critical mass is not a very accurate scientific problem; but from experience, it is probably about 20%-30% of the market share (see the figure below).

From left to right, they are innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority and Laggards. ), when buying an electric car or in most new things, I should be regarded as the category of early adopters)

The proportion of electric vehicles is still very small at present. According to Canalys data, only about 9% of cars are electric vehicles every year. If the stock is calculated, EV/all licensed vehicles will be even lower. So don't look at the electric car, but it is still in the stage of innovators+early adopters at most, and the tipping point is actually far from coming. When the tipping point comes, you will find that the streets are full of turbulent electric cars.

So whether electric vehicles will be the future is not a problem; the question is whether electric vehicles will be NIO.

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