Tesla Q1 2023 Delivery Out. Share Price Rise or Fall Today?
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ has released its “unaudited” (?) Q1 2023 EVs production & delivery data.
Here is the skinny :
1) Total EVs production : 440,808 (Q1 2023)
2) Total EVs delivery : 422,875 (Q1 2023) vs 310,048 (Q1 2022). This is a +36% gain.
10,695 EVs comprises of Tesla’s higher-priced Model S and X. This makes up 2.53% of delivery vs 4.75% (Q1 2022); that is a -2.20% decline.
412,180 EVs comprises of Tesla’s lower priced Model 3 sedan and Model Y. This makes up the lion’s share 97.47% of delivery vs 95.25% (Q1 2022); that is a +2.22% gain.
3) Tesla’s delivery has fallen short of different Wall Street expectations. Details :
Wall Street’s Factset expected a delivery averaging 432,000 EVs; based on a guidance range of 410,000 to 451,000 EVs. That is -2.16% short of expectation.
Refinitiv, an LSEG (London Stock Exchange Group) business, is one of the world's largest providers of financial markets data and infrastructure expected delivery to be 430,008 EVs. That is -1.69% short of expectation.
Twitter influencer “Troyteslike” expected a delivery of 427,000 EVs. That is -0.975% short of expectation.
4) Tesla excluded production & delivery numbers for its heavy-duty Semi trucks, manufactured in Sparks, Nevada since Dec 2022.
1) Total Revenue for Q1 2022 was $10.39 billion as per 2022 quarterly report.
2) Anticipated total revenue for Q1 2023 would still be “higher” than last year’s.
This is because :
It has increased its delivery by 112.827 EVs (QoQ).
Its revenue will still register “growth”; thanks to a strong +36% gain in EVs delivered.
Personally, I feel that Tesla’s total revenue could’ve been more profitable, if only
i) Tesla was able to retain its 4.75% delivery (& sales) of the higher-priced EVs
ii) Tesla did not resort to several rounds of massive discounts of more than 20% of its EVs - worldwide. It has indirectly cheapens and damage its brand equity by resorting to undercutting its pricing.
Much have been written about the steep discount.
Tesla’s EVs were heavily discounted in order to :
Qualify for US subsidies.
Prop up and sustain falling demand elsewhere.
Starve off competitors; by engaging in unfair price warfare “dumping”.
3) Given the acceptable “ok” performance, I think Tesla’s stock price should gain anything between +0.5% and +1.5% on Mon (03 Apr 2023) when trading resumes on the third day of Apr.
4) Having said that, Wall Street may not “agree” to my view & analysis. Wasn’t it them who exited en masse the last time, when Tesla fell short of their expectations ?
Resulting in the “plunge” that Tesla never quite gotten out of the pothole since ?
Do you think Tesla has produced a good set of quarterly delivery data ?
Do you think Tesla stock price will increase anything between +0.5% and +1.5% or fall back down again ?
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