To The Moon

Business leaders have called for a halt in AI. They voice concerns that we don’t know what it’s capable of and could quickly spiral out of control.

In recent months, I feel like I’ve heard someone express their concern for the uncertain yet daunting future of AI on a near daily basis. Venerable figures like David Faber repeatedly discuss their worries that AI will replace everyone and everything.

This doomsday characterization could be right. But that doesn’t mean I buy it.

First of all, I think we should take business leaders’ warnings with a grain of salt. Sure David Faber is a journalist without a stake in the game, but he isn’t the voice calling for regulators to shut down progress in AI.

Elon Musk has gone on the record stating how he’s afraid of the lurking behemoth that could be OpenAI. He’s discussed how their progress could be dangerous for society. He has also publicly opposed the general idea of AI in the last few months.

Why don’t I trust this? Because I think he might be buying himself time. Elon has vehemently criticized AI, all the while trying to set up his own AI venture on the side.

He has fallen behind in the AI front, which many are deeming the next disruptive wave of innovation. Stalling others’ progress — getting regulators to step in, generating public outcry, creating obstacles within firms — could buy him the time to develop artificial intelligence to rival industry leaders.

We should not stall technological progress because tech leaders are afraid of losing their ground.

AI could make firms more efficient. By outsourcing tedious tasks to AI, humans can focus on more creative, high skill, or complex jobs. These are generally greater value creators and better economic engines.

AI might be unlike any technology we’ve ever seen and completely disrupt economics as we know it. I won’t be so naive as to say I can predict the future. But the warnings about AI seem like a tale as old as time.

People warned that the industrial revolution and manufacturing machinery would replace all human jobs. Instead, it propelled growth.

The flourishing brokers of the flashy 1990s Wall Street have been nearly all replaced by brokerage apps and commission free trading. Yet the financial services industry is even more so of a titan today.

Throughout history people have time and time again warned against the advent of new technology. Although there could be short-run harms, every time that people are replaced, insofar as the technology makes some process more efficient or generates some kind of value, we always end up in a better place than where we started.

I think that AI could very well be a unique beast. Insofar as it can create itself, its exponential nature seems uncontrollable in a way that other technology hasn’t been. I still don’t yet see the case for why we should hit the brakes.

There needs to be some major concern to warrant halting technological development. Right now the concerns are all speculative: this could happen down the line, that could be a potential problem…

There will always be speculative problems. That doesn’t negate the fact that the next great firms that redefine American life could be born from AI.

When you hear people cry out about the terror of AI, check where their money is.