To The Moon

Confirming that the banking crisis is likely to have been averted, the capital needs of American banks did not continue to deteriorate last week. It is important to note that the phrase 'gathering momentum, declining rapidly' applies equally to the concept of shorting.

From last week's FOMC meeting, it can be seen that the Fed recognizes the impact of tightening credit on raising interest rates. However, some conspiracy theorists have suggested that Powell may have intentionally harmed small banks, only for short sellers to interfere. Within 48 hours, a bank unexpectedly failed due to the spread of social media, causing a run on regional banks and almost triggering a European banking crisis. This proved to be too much for central banks on both sides of the Atlantic, prompting them to hit the brakes and start over again.

Judging by the outcomes, it is difficult to argue that the Fed achieved its objective. The credit crash came and went as quickly as it did, and the tech sector continued to thrive. Grassroots consumption may not be affected just because a bank failure is trending for a few days. Instead, bank failure becomes the hottest topic for offline discussions.

So $First Republic Bank(FRC)$ 's deep out-of-the-money puts on Friday were awkward. Open positions on Friday out of the depth of the price put a lot of people, estimated that the mentality is anyway so cheap to bet on the collapse of the buy is not a loss.

But also shorting, $Signet Jewelers(SIG)$ shorts quietly retreated on Friday

​$SLG 20230519 20.0 PUT$ & $SLG 20230519 15.0 PUT$

So I also take a wait-and-see attitude to the Wall Street real estate stock explosion warning, may explode, but not the bears retreat now.If you ask me what would be a good trade right now, my answer:

• sell $MSFT 20230414 280.0 PUT$

Look at the chart, the annualized return is 42%. Selling at-the-money put option is bigger than the buy call, you know.

If you're really afraid of an option being exercised, or a stock crash, you can choose a lower strike price or simply buy a position. This has been the case this year, where going all-bullish is too risky and unnecessary, but going all-cash and waiting for a pullback will be regretted.