JpMorgan will not fail, even if America fails
(Previously) There's an old saying that fear brings fear. Sure enough, FRC collapsed; Microsoft, not surprisingly, has 310.
As for the US banking sector, I have said before that the wave of small bank failures will not end and the big four banks are too big to fail.
The big fish eating small fish in America's financial markets is also striking. I wrote a previous article on how to watch short positions. It turns out that American regulators are not stupid. After all, these officials have been on Wall Street before, and they know their own best. It's just a matter of getting caught.
A bit of a problem on the employment front, written before the holidays: the current support level for US non-farm payrolls growth is healthier than thought.
From this new data, April added 253,000 non-farm jobs, expected 185,000; Private non-farm payrolls added 230,000 vs. expected 160,000. 2) April unemployment rate 3.4% vs. 3.6% expected; Labor force participation rate 62.6% vs. expected 62.6%. 3) April hourly earnings 4.4% on-year vs. 4.2% expected; Hourly earnings were 0.5% month-on-month and 0.3% expected.
New jobs were created not only in health care and services, but also in professional and business services. The scope of professional and business services is as follows:
The wave of AI industry not only stabilizes the stock market, but also reallocates human resources and stabilizes the job market in science and technology.
Powell also realized that the employment structure of the U.S. is not uniform, and it is not an unhealthy employment environment dominated by the growth of the service sector. So the FOMC press conference also changed its view of the nonlinearity of the recession, saying that there would be only a mild recession, in addition to tight credit pressures from a wave of bank failures.
What is nonlinearity? Just look at the price of doomsday options. And restaurants and entertainment closed due to the epidemic closure. Before the epidemic, the expected source of income could be stable, but the sudden closure resulted in zero income, which is non-linear. An economy supported only by services is not a healthy economy, so Mr Powell was optimistic that it would be a non-linear recession if services were suppressed.
The view, including that of many analysts, is that the U.S. economy is largely driven by the labor market and service consumption, and that if higher interest rates and tighter credit affect service consumption, the data is bound to hit the ground running.
I think Powell is more persuasive this time, but I haven't looked at the impact of the tech revolution on specific jobs, and I can't say there won't be a recession this year. But I don't think it has any effect on my trading level.
The non-farm revision is more noteworthy than the non-farm data's resilience. From the U.S. Department of Labor website：https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised down by 78,000, from +326,000 to +248,000, and the change for March was revised down by 71,000, from +236,000 to +165,000. With these revisions, employment in February and March combined is 149,000 lower than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)
The reason for the sharp revision is not known.
If the service sector collapses due to higher interest rates in the future, consumer services stocks will be the first to suffer.
For example, $Uber(UBER)$ $DoorDash, Inc.(DASH)$ , and you can see that some organizations have already put.
Bank stocks have just been beaten, so they will be in peace until the next FOMC (June 15). You noticed the expiration date of Wells Fargo's strategy, right? LoL
Other stocks have similar trends, but not the kind of moves that are easy to grasp. So you can see that the institutions in the range-bound trend, still think it is safer to sell options strategy:
sell $UPS 20230721 190.0 CALL$
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Watching short positions in markets can be tricky, but regulators are catching on to the big fish eating the small fish
I'm relieved to see positive data on non-farm payroll growth and hourly earnings, which bodes well for the economy.
Fear really does bring fear in the financial markets. FRC's collapse was inevitable, while Microsoft is going strong
banking sector is a cutthroat world where the big four banks are too big to fail
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Great ariticle, would you like to share it?
Great ariticle, would you like to share it?
Great ariticle, would you like to share it?
Great ariticle, would you like to share it?
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