To The Moon

We've very good data releases this week that points to Fed could be ending the interest rate hike as early as May. However, the stock market is still pointing downwards over the last two trading days. One reason is a healthy pullback after four days of spikes is due. 

Like a catapult, some pulling tension is required to propel the object to hit its target. Are we going to bounce from the lower channel to double top or break the critical trend towards 400 next week?

More Bullish Numbers For The Fed

We have a lower PMI number on Monday. Final data on ISM non-manufacturing activity for March came in lower than expected, at 51.2 versus forecasts for 54.5.

U.S. MARCH ISM SERVICES INDEX TUMBLES TO 51.2; EST. 54.5; PREV. 55.1

Bullish numbers for the market

Lower Private Payroll Figure

Weaker-than-expected private payroll numbers in March stoked concern that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases in the past year could tip the economy into a recession.

The U.S. private sector significantly slowed its hiring in March as last year's string of interest rate hikes took an ever-greater toll on activity, payrolls processor ADP said on Wednesday.

ADP said private-sector employment rose by around 145,000 through the middle of last month, a sharp slowdown from 261,000 in February and well below expectations for a gain of 200,000. 

The numbers are the latest to indicate that a labor market that stayed red hot all through last year is now cooling fast. They follow hard on the heels of a Labor Department report showing that job vacancies fell to their lowest level in 21 months in February, dipping below 10 million for the first time since May 2021.

"Our March payroll data is one of several signals that the economy is slowing," ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said in a statement. "Employers are pulling back from a year of strong hiring and pay growth, after a three-month plateau, is inching down."

The report contained conspicuous declines in payrolls in manufacturing (-30,000), financial activities (-51,000), and professional and business services (-46,000), while job gains were again concentrated in leisure and hospitality (+98,000).

Using RSI & MACD Indicators effectively

The market mood appears to have turned defensive as traders shift their attention back to economic data, given the implication they can have on rates. 

The major averages showed listlessness in early trading, flitting in and out of the unchanged line, before moving decisively lower in late morning trading. After steadily declining through the morning, the averages consolidated around these lower levels for the rest of the session.

Trade #1

Trade #2

⚠️ Trading Tips: Looking at calls above 407.86 and puts below 405.98 on Thursday. Market is closed on Good Friday so remember to scale down to enjoy the long weekend with profits! 💪

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