To The Moon

The 🇺🇸 Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for Dec tonight 12/1, at SG⏰ 9.30pm‼️

Fellow 🐯🐯🐯 as we get closer to the release ⏰, let’s check out the forecasts by the economists & researchers of some major banks together🕵🏻🕵🏻‍♂️

⭐️ Annual CPI is expected to decline to 6.5% from 7.1% in Nov

⭐️⭐️ Core CPI (excludes volatile food & energy prices) is expected to lower to 5.7% from 6%

⭐️⭐️⭐️ On a monthly basis, the CPI is forecast to stay unchanged while the Core CPI is projected to rise 0.3%.

(1) Wells Fargo ➡️ “We estimate CPI fell 0.2% in December, bringing the YoY rate down to a 14-month low of 6.3%. We expect another sizable decline in energy prices to weigh on the headline and offset further gains in food and core services prices. But the drop in prices should also be helped along by another decline in core goods, led once again by used autos. We expect core inflation to rise 0.2% with the pace of core services prices little changed. While we believe that shelter inflation is close to its peak, continuing strong gains in the price of other core services can really pump the breaks on progress toward 2% inflation.”

(2) Deutsche Bank ➡️ “In terms of the MoM rate, the headline CPI is expected at -0.15% at DB with Core CPI expected at +0.22% at DB. In terms of YoY, headline is expected to drop from 7.1% to 6.3% at DB with Core falling from 6% to 5.6%.”

(3) Commerzbank ➡️ “In the US, inflation is clearly on the retreat. From its peak of 9.1% in June, the YoY rate most recently fell to 7.1% in November. For December, we forecasts a further decline to 6.4%. Used car prices are likely to have fallen by almost 3% in December from November. We therefore also expect the Core inflation rate to decrease from 6.0% to 5.6%. This would mean a continuation of the easing in inflation – a trend that should continue in 2023. However, we stand by our assessment that the fundamental inflation problem will not be solved. A sustained return to 2% inflation is likely to be prevented by demographically induced labor shortages, the costs of climate policy and increasing protectionism.”

🤔💭 My Thoughts:

💭 Investors seemed to be sick of the 🐻 market & after ending the year with a bloodbath🩸, they are wanting to force a 🐂 reversal at the start of the new year from yesterday’s optimism buying on no news🗞🗞🗞

💭 2 scenarios on whether 🇺🇸 market will close up📈/down📉:

📈 If CPI meets expectation or comes in way below forecast of 6.5% (Annual) & 5.7% (Core CPI)🐂🐂🐂 $Nasdaq100 Bull 3X ETF(TQQQ)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$  $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ 

📉 If CPI comes in above forecast🐻🐻🐻

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