Vote: Fed Stirs Again? Will SPX Stand on 4200 This Week or Not?

On tuesday trading,Fed Chair Powell says inflation is starting to ease, but interest rates still likely to rise.

“We expect 2023 to be a year of significant declines in inflation, My guess is it will take certainly into not just this year but next year” to get to 2%.

Seems the market downplayed the need for Federal Reserve to hike rate and even expected a rate cut by the end of this year in response to possible recession, turned a deaf ear to what J. Powell was delivering.

For past times, we see that the market reacted to Powell's speech as a blow:

Powell: Inflation is only temporary

Wall Street: Received

Powell: Inflation is really only temporary

Wall Street: Received received!

Powell: Inflation doesn't look temporary, we have more rate hikes to come

Wall Street: ..., got it

Powell: Inflation is very strong, we will continue to raise interest rates by 5.5%

Wall Street: Got it

Powell: Inflation is really strong, we will continue to raise interest rates, and we will not cut interest rates this year

Wall Street: Got it, what else?

POWELL: We're going to...

Wall Street: roll

Thuesday $S&P 500(.SPX)$ close at 4164, the next target may test 4200 above. 

Will this week successfully breakthrough? Below are some comments from Twitter:

Soure from RBswingtrader on Twitter:

Nice close at the end of the day confirmed 4100 as a good support level. Next, we got 4200 as a resistance point and 4230 and 4260. If i see a dip Wednesday to 4140, i may swing more calls.

Soure from Nostradamus on Twitter:

$SPX 4200 resistance test is coming, and soon we get the bear crushing box. Above that and you could see short sellers in liquidation mode. Bears and shorts forgot to look at forward-looking chart formations after a year of what we had in 2022.

In short: 4150/4125 will be support, 4200/4225 will be resistance.

If $S&P 500(.SPX)$ continues to hold 4132 it should test 4200-4223 by Thursday. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ 4200 can work on Friday

Optiontrader Sim on Twitter:

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ is at my resistance of 4163 points, we need to hold at or above this area to be bullish. Next resistance is at 4179 points. If we break past that level, look for a rejection at 4200 then back down to the 4140 area.

After watch the above 3 charts, please join to vote:

Can the S&P 500 manage to break above 4,200?

1. YES

2. NO

# Technical Analysis

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Comment103

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  • tradelaggard
    ·2023-02-08
    TOP
    yes cos of inflation, inflation in earnings. eventually
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  • Niskil
    ·2023-02-08
    TOP
    No. market is running on fumes now and needs a breather. I see further consolidation around 4100 level before being driven further up by good macro data
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    • CHUMOI
      Ok
      2023-02-12
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  • xiaobaii
    ·2023-02-09
    like & comment please
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  • Papa Bear
    ·2023-02-09
    TOP
    1. Yes , higher inflation and a reset to higher prices for consumers will raise stock prices eventually.
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  • trevor_t3
    ·2023-02-09
    No, more hikes will come as the inflation level is still not low enough
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    • blue sky
      agree
      2023-02-10
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  • TechnicalHunter
    ·2023-02-10
    TOP
    $S&P 500(.SPX)$ appears to turn Down?the high at 4195 is a probable peak. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed below its 10 DMA. ​ ​ Friday it's likely to hit hit its 20 DMA ~4050. If it holds above it the 16-17 TD cycle low and 80 cycle TD low may occur tomorrow. If it closes below the 20 DMA, the low will likely happen on Monday and target would be at least 4015.
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  • TechnicalHunter
    ·2023-02-10
    As long as 3950-3980 holds it can escape major fall in short term. Expecting it to loose temper after CPI next week.
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  • zlance
    ·2023-02-09
    1. The % increase in i/r is not as much vs 2022. Thus, the mkt will pay more attention to news of i/r cut when econ growth is in focus. The Russian war has to stop & China has to reopen.
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  • A.111
    ·2023-02-09
    yes! U.S. stocks fell Wednesday, reversing the prior session's rally, as investors focused on what recent remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell mean for the trajectory of interest rates.

    $S&P 500 index(.SPX.US)$ retreated 1.1%, a day after the benchmark index jumped 1.3% in a volatile session. $Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US)$ fell 0.6% while the $Nasdaq Composite Index(.IXIC.US)$ lost 1.7%. On Tuesday, all three indexes closed higher.

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  • airui
    ·2023-02-10
    unlikely, too overbought
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  • Bulltrader
    ·2023-02-09
    This week no way 4200. max 4185. turn down likely
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  • MilkTeaBro
    ·2023-02-09
    sideways market, s&p 500 can't breakout recently.
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  • Sandyboy
    ·2023-02-10
    The index will not go above 4200 as there is selling pressure and company estimates are lower for coming quarters
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  • AliceSam
    ·2023-02-10
    简言之:4150/4125为支撑,4200/4225为阻力。
    Agree[开心]
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  • wine18
    ·2023-02-10
    sideway... its bear market now.. probably will be hold down
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  • Optionspuppy
    ·2023-02-10
    Oh interest rate to 5.5%
    Should be thats why banks still offering 3.9%
    Hawish
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  • Xian789
    ·2023-02-10
    not yet.. may be turn down first slowly going to 4150.. dunno
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  • Kerrisdale
    ·2023-02-09
    tks for sharing
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  • 星期二789
    ·2023-02-19
    这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
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  • GerryLoh
    ·2023-02-12
    good sharing thanks
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