🎢📉📈Recession-Risk Reduces As Labor Market & Economy Surprises But Statistical Analysis Shows Increase in Recession-Risk in Dec 2023
The largest holding in my 🇺🇸 portfolio that’s in the red🩸 is the S&P 500 Bear 3X ETF (SPXU). I didn’t sell at break-even in Dec 2022 thinking that a 🇺🇸 recession is inevitable. The reason why I bought SPXU was because recession-risk was high given the Fed’s aggressive rate hike cycle, the stubbornly high inflation that's still far-off from the Fed's 2% target🎯, & many companies laying off staff. The market did sell-off in Dec 2022 but it wasn’t as bad as I had expected it to be due to the sudden reopening in 🇨🇳 in Dec 2022 which greatly lifted the stock market. Even in Jan 2023, economists were still talking about 🇺🇸 entering into a recession, but suddenly in Feb, the recession-risk seems to have vanished💨💨💨
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$💡Learning Point: When buying leveraged ETFs in a 🐻 market, always wait✋ for the right opportunity✅⏰ to buy a 🐂 ETF because we can keep averaging down to wait for the 🐂 market which will eventually come❗️Hedging with 🐻 ETFs is Too Risky as we can be easily caught🎣 in the downtrend as there are Wayyy More Investors who are 🐂-ish than 🐻-ish even when economic data & 🌎📰 aren’t favourable😅🫠
Below, I’ll share the Recession-Risks Prediction Timeline for 2023🎢📉📈 so that fellow 🐯🐯🐯 can be updated & adapt your investing decisions accordingly😉
10 Jan 2023:
The Bloomberg survey of economists From Famous Financial Institutions were convinced that 🇺🇸 will enter a recession & pegged the likelihood of a recession occurring in 2023 to be about 70%⁉️
27 Jan 2023:
A statistical projection published by Statista Research Department indicates that by Dec 2023, there’s a 47.31% probability that the 🇺🇸 will fall into another economic recession. This is a significant increase from the projection of the preceding month where the probability came to 38.06%. The 🇺🇸 recession probabilities are predicted a year in advance by using the difference between 10-year & 3-month treasury rates.
This projection continues to show that recession-risk increases in 2H 2023🤷🏻♀️🤷🏻♀️🤷🏻♀️ But…less than a few days later,
6 Feb 2023:
After calling for a recession during the 1st half of 2022 & then for much of the latter half saying one was likely in 2023, some in the financial community are now reversing course. Wall Street titan Goldman Sachs, downgraded the odds of a recession within the next 12 months to 25% from its prior 35% on 6/2 (Mon). The revision came after the release of 2 economic data:
(1) 517,000 jobs added in Jan, nearly 3 times the number that had been forecast.
(2) Services sector index (from Institute for Supply Management) improved to 55.2 in Jan after having fallen to 49.2 in Dec.
🤔💭My Thoughts:
⭐️⭐️⭐️ We cannot rely solely on predictions from analysts or economists Even If They’re From Famous Financial Institutions to make our investing decisions as they can change their views in less than 1 month😧🥴😵💫⁉️
⭐️⭐️⭐️ We Need to Keep Ourselves Updated with the Latest📰 So That We Can Re-Analyse & Adapt our investing decisions based on Incoming Economic Data & 🌎📰💪💪💪
⭐️⭐️⭐️ We need to be dynamic & balanced in our investing ➡️ Change as economic data & 🗞🗞🗞 changes.
⚠️ I often read advice like “Don’t trade based on news📰” I honestly think this is a wrong advice because IF you didn’t follow 🗞🗞🗞, you would have missed out the 🇨🇳 re-opening rally💸💸💸
⭐️⭐️⭐️ Always buy undervalued profitable companies with strong fundamentals to hold during 🐻 markets, so that when the 🐻 is gone & hibernating, we’ll be able to reap profits💵💵💵 when the 🐂🐂🐂 come around❣️
Fellow 🐯🐯🐯 What are your thoughts on the above❓Do share them with me in the comments section❣️ Please help to click on the “Like” & “Share/Repost” buttons at the Bottom Right corner so that more 🐯🐯🐯 can access this information, many thanks🤗🥰 You will Greatly Encourage Me❣️
As usual-🤔💭 Consider POV & Actions of investors + 👩🏻💻👨🏻💻 Research + 🗑FOMO & Greed = Investing Wisely 🤓🤗 + Accumulating Wealth 💵💰
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
- snoopy123·2023-02-11TOPthe market tend to swing from euphoria to depression (and oftentimes this is news-driven)... and often we can't predict how it move ( it's like the weather sometimes...) so we need to hear different views and take a more balanced view (diversified) so we don't get stuck waist deep when we get it wrong.. I'm also learning not to let my convictions get the better of me.. and still get into knee high or ankle deep situations here and there..1Report
- Ericdao·2023-02-11TOPU reading 2 much dear. Need more time to relax. React to what the mkt is. Recession or not, mkt will price in accordingly. Cracking yr mind over so many details will make u crazy n confused. Just flow along with the wave n enjoy the ride [Cool]1Report
- MorganHope·2023-02-10TOPFactors such as increasing unemployment, weak consumer spending could all be causes of a potential recession.2Report
- 4everb13ssed·2023-02-09TOPthanks for sharing3Report
- FrankRebecca·2023-02-10TOPDon’t trade based on news, totally agree! Hard to follow all news.2Report
- Guy·2023-02-10TOPIt is important for investors to be aware of these risks and adjust their portfolios accordingly.2Report
- nerdbull1669·2023-02-09TOPthanks for sharing2Report
- snoopy123·2023-02-11TOPdid you ever wonder why snoopy likes to stay at the top of his house and not inside?1Report
- PhilipChow·2023-02-10TOPLargest stock in my portfolio is still BRK B3Report
- KryZ·2023-02-11TOPThanks for sharing yr insights. Always a good read!1Report
- Niskil·2023-02-10TOPBuckle up. Volatility is going up2Report
- tobe.....·2023-02-10TOPthanks for sharing1Report
- GoodLife99·2023-02-12I just feel like we have moved into recession for a while [LOL]1Report
- valentia·2023-02-12I like your learning point1Report
- LMSunshine·2023-02-10@KYHBKO Seems like recession is unlikely given the strong economic data? Fed official and Biden also publicly announced no reccession this week. Are you still of the view that worst times ahead for the stock market or has your view changed after last Friday’s economic data?1Report
- LMSunshine·2023-02-11@Ericdao What’s your analysis? Recession or no recession?LikeReport
- Cory2·2023-02-14ThanksLikeReport
- 会上吗·2023-02-11OK1Report
- Joe Lamborgh·2023-02-11OKLikeReport
- MLFL·2023-02-11👋1Report