To The Moon

Since the beginning of this year, we have all seen a strong rebound in technology stocks. In 2022, with the soaring dollar, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations and the tough tightening operation, technology stocks became one of the best performers at the beginning of 2023. However, last Friday's U.S. employment data showed that the rebound stopped. NFP data is 2.5 times closer to market expectations, while the unemployment rate has hit a 50-year low. Traders are now carefully considering whether this means that the Federal Reserve will remain tough on interest rates, because the economy is obviously better able to cope with the current austerity than expected.

With this in mind, the focus now shifts to Powell, who is about to speak at the New York Economic Club. I think because the U.S. economic data is excellent, the market is more cautious about the Federal Reserve's expectations of interest rate policy. This may have an impact on technology stocks, because the high interest rate environment may affect the company's profitability and stock price. Therefore, the market will pay close attention to Powell's speech today to determine the specific direction of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy.

Hawkic speech risk

Behind last Friday's data, the main risk now is whether Powell will take a tougher stance. Although the Federal Reserve was seen on FOMC reaffirming its commitment to continue to raise interest rates, Powell's comments on inflation made the market begin to end tightening expectations early, and falling interest rates began to be priced until the end of the year. However, I think that because the economic data are obviously well maintained, the Federal Reserve may now decide that it has room to continue to raise interest rates to reduce inflation faster, which may see the US dollar continue to soar in the near future, pulling down technology stocks again. However, if there is no important tough change in the Federal Reserve, traders may regard it as a "green light" and start buying technology stocks again.

Next, write some technical analysis points. The soar of the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $NASDAQ Composite Index.US Nasdaq index raised the test level of 12875.84. At present, with the weakening of kinetic energy, the rising market has stagnated here. However, I think that although the index remains above 12220.22, the focus is still the final breakthrough of the current high. If it is below 12220.22, then let's turn to the next 11540.72 support point.

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