To The Moon

The February FOMC meeting was neither dovish nor hawkish, and the market rallied because it was open to interpretation.Just recovered from the new crown Powell in the face of the audience of the reporter, although still wheels to say, but it will inevitably be some not rigorous, so individual words are amplified for the dovish pronoun. Overall, however, the meeting was not much different from the previous December meeting.

But the media will not write "this meeting is no different" or "no more new than the last one". After all, the market has soared, and the surge needs to have a reason to rise. The truth is that Powell did not admit or deny anything, so it is up to the market to make sense of it.

After all, there is no real data to disprove the strength of inflation, so it is now a soft landing with falling inflation and strong employment.

The analogy to the options strategy, the sell call strategy that Powell came up with, is that you can either think of a moderate rise in the near term, or you can think of a probability of a decline in the near term, uncertainty within a certain range.

What did Powell reveal this time?

Non-farm data:

we continue to get strong labor market data

Powell would not have been so sure if he had not known about Friday's nonfarm data in advance. So tomorrow's non-farm data is no surprise, still strong.

Mr. Powell did not take a position, saying instead that he wanted to focus on the minutes to be released in three weeks' time, where there was a lot of discussion about the path. So February 23rd May well be a turning point.

In addition to February 23, here are a few points to watch:

• January cpi on February 14
• The non-farm on March 10th
• March 14 February cpi
• March 23 FOMC (includes dot plot and economic forecasts)

$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ We must be very concerned about AMD after the rally how much space, over yesterday's move more reliable option portfolio is this pair:

• $AMD 20230616 95.0 CALL$ $AMD 20230616 95.0 CALL$ ​
• ​$AMD 20230616 80.0 PUT$ $AMD 20230616 80.0 PUT$ 

With yesterday's META experience, it is not easy to judge the direction of portfolio buying and selling. But looking at the overall goal of the rally, 95 is about the same.

With the rally as a whole targeting last April's lows, the focus should instead be on stocks that still have room for a scary rebound.