To The Moon

How to be wrong and still make a profit and a new thesis forMarch

In my last post (1/6), i had a thesis to short the USD.

$USD/CAD(USDCAD.FOREX)$  $Canadian Dollar - Jun 2023(CAD2306)$  

 Dollar currency index was at 103.879 and today at 103.88.

Basically, 6 weeks and USD has remained the same.

There was tremendous volatility.

Lucky i was right for about 4 weeks and took 3k off the table.

(See photos)

The markets have now priced in higher interest rates.

I personally find that shocking but i have always lost money when i am overly optimistic.

So i was lucky this time around. 

There is also an off chance that interest rates may have to go even higher than wall street has priced.

If true, businesses are sleep walking into a nightmare.

I think a good non risky bet is now to identify companies:

(I) with no upside exposure to any china reopening

(II) high debt to equity leverage ratio

(III) poor revenue position

(IV) revenue may be disrupted by AI technology

To me,  those will be great candidates for a short position

I am always optimistic.

I just wish chatgpt or bing chat is sophisicated to help me do that research.

Shorting a stock exposes you to unlimited losses, in theory.

The above sets out my thoughts on an anticipated trade.

It is mainly to keep myself honest.

Good luck out there, for a tough year ahead