To The Moon

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$Q3 earning released on Thursday, with the same day of Sep CPI. TSM has rebounded 4%, with the intraday high of 9%,

According to WSJ, TSMC and $Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.(SSNLF)$, have received a one-year license to keep their chip production in China, where they have factories, and continue to expand their business there. That maybe the reason to keep it rebound.

Of course, America's $Intel(INTC)$ has got the green light too.

TSMC Q3's performance had beat consensus by its previous monthly report, as we mentioned on previews.Prospect of TSMC Q3 Financial Report

Q3's revenue should reach more than NT $613 billion (according to the three-month monthly report of 789), with a growth rate of 48%, which is higher than the market expectation of NT $604.5 billion (a growth rate of 45%). However, given the strength of the dollar in Q3, the average depreciation of the NT dollar is 5%, and the growth rate in US dollars is only 40%.

In terms of profit, TSMC's performance beat market consensus, with gross profit margin of 60.4%, 9.4 percentage points higher than Q2, earnings per share of NT $10.83, higher than market expectation of NT $10.25, earnings per ADR of US $1.79 and ROE of 42.9%

Smartphone increased 25% quarter-over-quarter to account for 41% of our third quarter revenue. HPC increased 4% to account for 39%, IoT increased 33% to account for 10%. Automotive increased 15%, to account for 5% and DCE decreased 2% to account for 2%

It is worth mentioning that 5-nanometer process technology contributed 28% of wafer revenue in the third quarter, while 7-nanometre accounted for 26%. Advanced technologies, which are defined as 7-nanometer and below accounted for 54% of wafer revenue.

The demand for 3nm exceeds TSMC's supply, and it will be fully loaded next year, with revenue accounting for about 4-6% next year. At present, the development progress of 2nm is going well, even better than expected, and mass production is still expected in 2025 according to the progress.

And before$Micron Technology(MU)$Similarly, TSMC has lowered its capital expenditure. TSMC said that its annual capital expenditure is based on the expectation of growth in the next few years, and now it is further revised down. Apart from the challenge of equipment delivery, another major factor is the optimization of production capacity based on the medium-term outlook of current operation, so it has lowered its capital expenditure this year.

This is also regarded as a big signal of slowing growth.

At the same time, the utilization rate of 7nm declined, and the decline in demand was due to the weak market of smart phones and personal computers, and the delayed launch of products of corporate customers also had an impact.

In terms of outlook, the company expects Q4 revenue to be between 19.9 billion US dollars and 20.7 billion US dollars, with the median increasing by 0.4% from the previous month; The gross profit margin is expected to be between 59.5% and 61.5%, and the operating profit margin is expected to be between 49% and 51%. The company still expects the annual sales in 2022 to increase by about 30% in US dollars, and the annual capital expenditure is about 36 billion US dollars, compared with the previous forecast of 40 billion US dollars to 44 billion US dollars.

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