To The Moon

The policy market is difficult to give a clear direction. so it is a way of thinking to give policy indicators and then make long and short adjustments according to the indicators. ​

According to the above dollar and the United States stock change chart, we can judge flexibly.(Please note if there is a 15-minute delay in the dollar market you find)

Yesterday's rally was a surprise. The surprise point was that the rebound was still a little bit short of being ready from various data points, but the dollar fell first, so the market followed up with the rebound.

The fact that the VIX hasn't hit 35 is always a concern. But my understanding is that in a dollar correction, the dollar won't make new highs, and even if the Nasdaq drops 3%, the VIX won't go above 35.

After the CPI announcement on Thursday, the market overdrew expectations of a 75bps rate hike in December, and the market performance was first down and then up. In fact, this year's rate hike path is already locked in. If October's non-farm and CPI are not particularly bad, December will not see a 75bps hike, but 50bps as previously expected.

After the interest rate entered the range above 4%, the policy adjustment becomes more difficult, and the interest rate increase needs to be more cautious. And because of the lock of the interest rate terminal, the high probability before the dollar broke again is not big, then the market overdraft panic will become a rebound space.