To The Moon

The relationship between the dollar and the broader market trend: the dollar up the broader market down, the dollar down the broader market up.

If it is a day trade, according to the dollar resistance level to do more short broad market can be.

These two days the index opened up and fell in the middle of the day is because the dollar opened down and rose in the middle of the day, and vice versa.

Now the strongest certainty is the earnings report, especially retail earnings. Today's investment lead is a put option on $Foot Locker(FL)$ :

$FL 20221216 30.0 PUT$

FL is an apparel and athletic shoe retailer, a niche retail market in the sports category. Shares rose 20% after last quarter's earnings report, both because the company met expectations and because ULTA's beauty CEO Dillon was named FL's CEO, and Wall Street is bullish on her stellar performance in previous years. (The share price of $Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance(ULTA)$ does look somewhat convincing)

However, this quarter is facing a significant increase in retailer inventory, not only Nike, even Adidas pointed out in yesterday's third quarter report that consumer growth has slowed, and the stock price plunged. The sports market situation is not optimistic, so the retail chain stores as the direction of sports segmentation is facing the same unpromising situation.

From the fundamentals FL shorting profitability probability is high, but the risk comes from the dollar trend. Yesterday's Tesla earnings report gave the answer with a big drop in the dollar and a low share price. Beware of macro levels driving a broad market rally.

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