To The Moon

According to foreign media reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting in Wyoming, USA on August 26th to discuss the economic prospects, and the content of his speech may indicate the trend of borrowing costs in the United States.

Powell is expected to make tough remarks as he strengthens the central bank's goal of curbing inflation and controlling expectations of future price increases.

One, is it a pigeon or an eagle?

Gold has long had an answer

Last week's post clearly told everyone that the rebound of gold price to around 1830 is a strong pressure area, which is suitable for reverse trading. Sure enough, the price of gold has been adjusted, and the process is rare. There is not a day in the whole week that it has closed higher.

Although the one-day decline is not big, the cumulative decline in the whole week has covered the increase in the past two weeks. Then it is enough to show that the market is still very afraid of the hawkish interest rate hike of the Federal Reserve, and it will become very difficult for the gold price to break through the price of 1830.

Therefore, the news of this week's annual meeting of the central bank will not be optimistic. Anyway, it is difficult to break through last week's high point. Therefore, it is strategically suggested to continue to sell call options near last week's high point to obtain option premium income. Technically, there is a demand for gold prices to explore the previous low again. If the previous low (1680) can't bear it this time, then gold prices will have to seek support at 1450, that is, return to the pre-epidemic level.

Second,

will crude oil rebound because of Powell's speech?

We have clearly told everyone that before the mid-term elections, oil prices are easy to fall but difficult to rise, because that is due to political demands. The United States is likely to agree to Iran's return to the crude oil market under the pressure of inflation, when the short-term supply will greatly increase, which will become a straw to crush the oil price. Therefore, Powell's speech at the annual meeting is not very important, and it has to fall.

From the perspective of opportunity cost, under the background of suppressing inflation, it is difficult for oil prices to rise rapidly, but the decline can be accelerated. The strategy is to stop gains and losses according to the moving average, and put options can be arranged slowly if there are channels.

In the short term, there are two possible trends, but neither of them can change the bearish trend.

One is the slight rebound trend that breaks through the 20-day moving average in the short term. If this trend is not supported by the news of major supply-side reduction, the increase will come back, and the oil price will not pass the $100 line.

The second trend is completely subject to the 20-day moving average, and then finally accelerates the breakthrough downward. The previous posts of this situation have been analyzed many times, including the decline rate and subsequent trend , which will not be repeated here. In short, we will stop the profit and turn more when we reach the goal.

Third

excellent trading opportunities for agricultural products

There was a good trading opportunity for agricultural products in the middle of last week. I have given real-time prompts and attached trading strategies and screenshots in the column of "Zhihui Investment Research" in Xiaohongquan, which has generated a lot of profits. As the opportunity is not over yet, interested friends can take a detailed look at it.

$NQ100指数主连 2209(NQmain)$   $道琼斯指数主连 2209(YMmain)$   $SP500指数主连 2209(ESmain)$   $黄金主连 2212(GCmain)$   $WTI原油主连 2210(CLmain)$