$NIO Inc.(NIO)$Have to admit that the last 4 months have been brutal since the spike to 16 and the fall thereafter. It really tests your conviction specifically if you are heavily invested in it. The past few weeks leading into the end of the year it has been pummeled unfairly to break your will and make you sell for a tax loss. That will end soon. I think a spike back to 16 is coming soon in the new year.
$NIO Inc.(NIO)$If you're a bear you are fixated on weekly registrations and monthly deliveries and how they are less than certain selective competition. True, more deliveries would always be better, but the vast amount of NIO's revenue comes from charging since they have the largest network of chargers and swaps in China. This makes the growing total number of NIO ev's on the road the most important metric.
$NIO Inc.(NIO)$it has been super frustrating to hold this, I am calling a bottom on this and likely going to start building my position here if at all it goes below 7.20. I am holding 1600 shares as of now and will be looking to add 400 more to make it 2000. 2024 is the year for Nio. I am super ultra bullish.
$NIO Inc.(NIO)$you can't compare Li Auto to Nio based on numbers sold. Nio makes premium EVs where as Li Auto makes hybrids that are son to be eliminated via the Chinese government. Why do you think Li Auto just came out with an expensive all ev? They are following Tesla's tired play book. Expensive car first... that don't work no more.
$NIO Inc.(NIO)$As you bash this holiday season, make sure you take note of how many packages you, and your family open that read “made in China”… Yup, everything is made in China, including the world’s best EV. If you don’t understand this basic fact, you’re in denial, and probably support the orange Cheeto! Embrace reality and the king of all EVs, Nio!
$GameStop(GME)$GameStop are transforming into a profitable company with over $1.21B in cash, no long term debt (in contrast to their competitors), a heavily invested CEO who's working for free, a stocked inventory and a loyal fanbase. They are perfectly positioned for the upcoming web3 boom! The hedgefunds, marketmakers, banks and brokers who tried to cellar-box GameStop out of existence made a huge mistake. They're by all evidence still trapped with their bags of (naked) shorts, which they'll have to close sooner or later. tick tock...
$GameStop(GME)$Well, that's a wrap folks. Back to the normal Trend. Sure.. the trend won't be as bad as in the chart below, but that's the relative spirit of the Trend until the Next Hype. Thanks to those who sold me shares on the cheap for a few great swings. Your money will be well spent.Working Stock Market GIF by Adult Swim
$GameStop(GME)$kg and market makers openly talking about manipulation of the market is a good thing and they control real value of all companies as needed, definitely wouldn’t want any retail investors to over value anything by our $$ since we our gamblers and know nothing while we actually live in the every day world, true exposure that citadel is not completing anyone’s weekly trades-FTD & icing on top, we will allow short synthetic to infinity
$GameStop(GME)$I’m thinking invest in private brands to make them sell exclusively at Gamestop. This way they can raise capital without the risk of listing on the market and getting shorted to death. Maybe when GME collects a ton of brands together in one place, is that GMErica? Hmm
$GameStop(GME)$Eric has awoken, or he just switched to his main account, whatever. It would be nice if the bearish users could provide facts and numbers to backup their claims, instead of tossing insults and threats at everyone they disagree with. It's almost like they're getting paid to spread fud.
$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ Rivian is appropriately priced.EVs have higher production costs as it’s a new products and companies are still learning to build more cost effectively.Rivian R1S is twice the car and yet is priced lower than Model X.R1T is about the same as Tesla truck.
$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ Isn't happening today as the stock is under extreme pressure. Appears more selling than buying today. Mega Cap is driving this market higher not the EV segment. It will be interesting to hear RJ and team talk about future demand. Even if they top production at the end of the month, all the focus on the company is cash burn and profitability. Investors what to see significant improvement on all cylinders and then you can anticipate the stock to head up from here for sure. That is a few years out. The big catalyst I am waiting for is them to announce another partnership for their EV vans similar to Amazon. If they can get another company to invest like Amazon then that will help them until they can get the R2 out to t
$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$Just coming back to this board. If you ever have a chance to visit Dubai, Salt at the Burj Al Arab is an amazing restaurant😂So we have not dropped to 15? Timber and all these other shorts, did you not predicted a massive drop? Bringing up the people who got fired, etc? Your credibility is at zero… or below zero. So many 🤡 here.GoRivian
$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$If Rivian can really get the prices down, then they have a good shot at being the pickup truck version of Tesla. I like their chances and will keep building my position. I understand completion is fierce with BMW and Mercedes SUV but neither produce a pickup truck. GM and Ford are there but they are much bigger. Seems to me Rivian is in a good slot. I do recall reading Ford was planning on building their trucks on similar skateboard of Rivian but not sure if that has changed.
$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$currently US sells some 3M trucks and 6M SUV, the question is what % of that will belong to EVs going forward? Based on product it is likely that if EV take market share from ICE vehicles then Rivian will be a leader among EV manufacturers. Each 1% market share means 90,000 vehicles. Today EVs have a 7.9% market share of total US AUTO market, transfer that to trucks and SUVs and you will see some 720,000 vehicles a year and I would expect Rivian to dominate this segment since they have a very good product.
$Broadcom(AVGO)$ AVGO announces a 14% dividend increaseFrom $4.60/share/quarter to $5.25AVGO OG moveproviding FCF margin on the 4Q/FY press releaseImageAVGO 4Q as guidedYoYRevenue +4% (guidance mid point)Net income +5%Dil EPS +5%FYOCF +5%FCF +6%FY24 outlookexpect semiconductor to sustain its mid to high single digit revenue growth rateRevenue to $50 billion, and adjusted EBITDA to $30 billionhttps://twitter.com/DividendWave/status/1732872036911829247
Is the software recession over?? Nice discussion! In the episode they looked at one of the charts I put together that showed net new ARR growth YoY finally picking back up. I wanted to dig a little deeper on the data behind that chart, and show how net new ARR growth has trended for high, medium and low growth companies (see next tweets)Here's the original chart (updated for the final set of companies who reported earnings today)ImageHere's the same chart, but looking only at high growth software companies. As you can see, the re-acceleration this quarter was stronger!ImageHere's the chart for medium growth software companiesImageAnd finally, the chart for slow growth software companiesImagehttps://twitter.com/jaminball/status/1732963996712808937
There's usually a seasonal ARR dip in Q3, but Q3 '23 was less pronounced than prior years
There's usually a seasonal dip in Q3, but Q3 '23 was less pronounced than prior years. 2020 - 2022 the data starts to get skewed, but you can see the trends in 2018 / 2019. Q3 is generally about ~70% of the net new ARR of Q2. This year Q3 was ~90% of the net new ARR of Q2There's definitely an element of "the comps are getting easier" when looking at YoY growth rate trends. But looking at aggregate net new quarterly ARR added by the hyperscalers, we can see they started to turn the corner in Q3.Imagehttps://twitter.com/jaminball/status/1732975907642732769
Here's the growth profile of Fortinet $Fortinet(FTNT)$ Note two things:• The combination of margin expansion and share buybacks means FCF/share growth is faster than revenue ✅ • A low level of multiple expansion means share price growth was slightly faster than FCF/share growth, also suggesting a fair valuation ✅What are your thoughts on Fortinet's growth going forward?ImageTheir SBC/OCF is 11%. For reference Alphabet $Alphabet(GOOG)$$Alphabet(GOOGL)$ ’s is 21% and NVIDIA $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ ’s is 17%.https://twitter.com/long_equity/status/1733076997671174311
$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ Isn't happening today as the stock is under extreme pressure. Appears more selling than buying today. Mega Cap is driving this market higher not the EV segment. It will be interesting to hear RJ and team talk about future demand. Even if they top production at the end of the month, all the focus on the company is cash burn and profitability. Investors what to see significant improvement on all cylinders and then you can anticipate the stock to head up from here for sure. That is a few years out. The big catalyst I am waiting for is them to announce another partnership for their EV vans similar to Amazon. If they can get another company to invest like Amazon then that will help them until they can get the R2 out to t
$GameStop(GME)$GameStop are transforming into a profitable company with over $1.21B in cash, no long term debt (in contrast to their competitors), a heavily invested CEO who's working for free, a stocked inventory and a loyal fanbase. They are perfectly positioned for the upcoming web3 boom! The hedgefunds, marketmakers, banks and brokers who tried to cellar-box GameStop out of existence made a huge mistake. They're by all evidence still trapped with their bags of (naked) shorts, which they'll have to close sooner or later. tick tock...
$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$currently US sells some 3M trucks and 6M SUV, the question is what % of that will belong to EVs going forward? Based on product it is likely that if EV take market share from ICE vehicles then Rivian will be a leader among EV manufacturers. Each 1% market share means 90,000 vehicles. Today EVs have a 7.9% market share of total US AUTO market, transfer that to trucks and SUVs and you will see some 720,000 vehicles a year and I would expect Rivian to dominate this segment since they have a very good product.
$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$If Rivian can really get the prices down, then they have a good shot at being the pickup truck version of Tesla. I like their chances and will keep building my position. I understand completion is fierce with BMW and Mercedes SUV but neither produce a pickup truck. GM and Ford are there but they are much bigger. Seems to me Rivian is in a good slot. I do recall reading Ford was planning on building their trucks on similar skateboard of Rivian but not sure if that has changed.
$GameStop(GME)$kg and market makers openly talking about manipulation of the market is a good thing and they control real value of all companies as needed, definitely wouldn’t want any retail investors to over value anything by our $$ since we our gamblers and know nothing while we actually live in the every day world, true exposure that citadel is not completing anyone’s weekly trades-FTD & icing on top, we will allow short synthetic to infinity
$GameStop(GME)$Well, that's a wrap folks. Back to the normal Trend. Sure.. the trend won't be as bad as in the chart below, but that's the relative spirit of the Trend until the Next Hype. Thanks to those who sold me shares on the cheap for a few great swings. Your money will be well spent.Working Stock Market GIF by Adult Swim
$NIO Inc.(NIO)$If you're a bear you are fixated on weekly registrations and monthly deliveries and how they are less than certain selective competition. True, more deliveries would always be better, but the vast amount of NIO's revenue comes from charging since they have the largest network of chargers and swaps in China. This makes the growing total number of NIO ev's on the road the most important metric.
$NIO Inc.(NIO)$Have to admit that the last 4 months have been brutal since the spike to 16 and the fall thereafter. It really tests your conviction specifically if you are heavily invested in it. The past few weeks leading into the end of the year it has been pummeled unfairly to break your will and make you sell for a tax loss. That will end soon. I think a spike back to 16 is coming soon in the new year.
Here's what happened in China's markets today (12/7)
1. China’s foreign exchange and gold reserves climbed higher in November. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) reported the country’s foreign exchange reserves increased $70.6 billion in November to reach $3.17 trillion. The figure was slightly higher than the $3.14 trillion expected by the market, which points to resilience in the nation’s ability to generate a positive balance of payments despite the economic headwinds and slowing exports. However, slowing imports are also warning of weak domestic consumption, which needs to be addressed with stimulus. Meanwhile, China continues to accumulate gold, with central bank purchases up another 380k ounces in November. The country’s official gold reserves amounted to 71.58 million ounces last month, another record high.
$NIO Inc.(NIO)$As you bash this holiday season, make sure you take note of how many packages you, and your family open that read “made in China”… Yup, everything is made in China, including the world’s best EV. If you don’t understand this basic fact, you’re in denial, and probably support the orange Cheeto! Embrace reality and the king of all EVs, Nio!
$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$Just coming back to this board. If you ever have a chance to visit Dubai, Salt at the Burj Al Arab is an amazing restaurant😂So we have not dropped to 15? Timber and all these other shorts, did you not predicted a massive drop? Bringing up the people who got fired, etc? Your credibility is at zero… or below zero. So many 🤡 here.GoRivian
$NIO Inc.(NIO)$you can't compare Li Auto to Nio based on numbers sold. Nio makes premium EVs where as Li Auto makes hybrids that are son to be eliminated via the Chinese government. Why do you think Li Auto just came out with an expensive all ev? They are following Tesla's tired play book. Expensive car first... that don't work no more.
$NIO Inc.(NIO)$it has been super frustrating to hold this, I am calling a bottom on this and likely going to start building my position here if at all it goes below 7.20. I am holding 1600 shares as of now and will be looking to add 400 more to make it 2000. 2024 is the year for Nio. I am super ultra bullish.
$GameStop(GME)$Eric has awoken, or he just switched to his main account, whatever. It would be nice if the bearish users could provide facts and numbers to backup their claims, instead of tossing insults and threats at everyone they disagree with. It's almost like they're getting paid to spread fud.
Is the software recession over?? Nice discussion! In the episode they looked at one of the charts I put together that showed net new ARR growth YoY finally picking back up. I wanted to dig a little deeper on the data behind that chart, and show how net new ARR growth has trended for high, medium and low growth companies (see next tweets)Here's the original chart (updated for the final set of companies who reported earnings today)ImageHere's the same chart, but looking only at high growth software companies. As you can see, the re-acceleration this quarter was stronger!ImageHere's the chart for medium growth software companiesImageAnd finally, the chart for slow growth software companiesImagehttps://twitter.com/jaminball/status/1732963996712808937
$GameStop(GME)$I’m thinking invest in private brands to make them sell exclusively at Gamestop. This way they can raise capital without the risk of listing on the market and getting shorted to death. Maybe when GME collects a ton of brands together in one place, is that GMErica? Hmm
$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ Rivian is appropriately priced.EVs have higher production costs as it’s a new products and companies are still learning to build more cost effectively.Rivian R1S is twice the car and yet is priced lower than Model X.R1T is about the same as Tesla truck.
AI Empowers Robotic Stocks ROK, SYM & PATH Worth Buying
The performance of the industrial robot market has performed poorly this year. After four consecutive years of growth, market research firm Interact Analysis indicates that global warehouse automation revenue will decline slightly in 2023 compared to 2022, and this trend will continue until 2024. However, by the end of next year, the combination of multiple favorable factors in automation technology, coupled with the empowerment of artificial intelligence (AI), will reverse the downturn in industrial automation spending, and investment opportunities in US robotic stocks will also arise.The International Federation of Robotics expects the total number of robot installations worldwide to increase at an average annual rate of 7% until 2026, while Interact Analysis also predicts that the size
Here's a brief overview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report [click for latest]. I send this report out late Friday NZ time and aim to cover a good mix of macro/ideas/risk topics, across a global macro/multi-asset universe…This week I covered the following topics/ideas:1. Macro Outlook 2024: Despite weak confidence and pockets of economic weakness, the US (global) economy avoided recession in 2023 (thanks: capex/housing/labor), but don’t get complacent on 2024. $S&P 500(.SPX)$$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$$DJIA(.DJI)$ 2. Gold: Promising technicals, reset in sentiment/flows/positioning, fundamental support (falling yield