The market initially seemed to expect the Strait of Hormuz disruption to fade quickly, much like last year’s Iranian missile retaliation, but that has not happened. Shipping disruptions have persisted, oil has surged, and investors are paying much closer attention to the inflation and growth risks that come with a prolonged energy shock. What has changed even more is the dollar. After spending much of the past year in a weak trend, the greenback has started to behave very differently since the Strait disruption. With higher oil feeding inflation concerns, rate-cut expectations for this year have been pushed back sharply, and the market is now pricing in very little easing from the Fed, which is helping support dollar demand. If the next Fed chair also turns out to be more focused on balanc

Trump ultimately opted for the "Winning Strategy" we predicted to try and defuse the situation in Iran. While this somewhat delayed move briefly pushed oil prices down from $119 to below $80, the unresolved issue in the Strait of Hormuz has kept oil prices firm, preventing the situation from returning to an ideal state. As the Middle East narrative is likely to stretch into a significantly longer cycle, the risks of high oil prices transmitting into broader inflation will materialize. One thing is certain: the longer this drags on, the bigger the trouble for financial markets.​ From a technical standpoint, oil prices printed a massive Doji star last week, characterized by exceptionally long upper and lower shadows. Typically, after such a structure appears, the market requires time to dige

By the 11th day of the U.S.–Iran war, markets have gone through extreme turbulence. WTI crude futures have surged in the short term from 80 dollars—a level many traders saw as a point to close positions—to nearly 120 dollars, and then, within just one day, plunged sharply back down to around 83. U.S. equity indices also tumbled quickly when the war escalated, only to stage a broad-based rebound afterward. At this point, many investors are likely asking themselves: how should we position our portfolios now? What opportunities in the market are still worth our close attention? To figure out what opportunities in the market are really worth seizing right now, we first need to understand the macro logic that is driving current volatility. Let’s take a look at the macro transmission chain we’re

Ahead of the holiday, I told everyone to temporarily consider taking profits on bullish positions in the U.S. equity market, and to look at building small long put option positions once the S&P moved below its 20-week moving average; alternatively, you could try buying VIX-long exposure on dips, using the VIX 20-day moving average as the stop level. From what we’ve seen so far, the VIX-long position should already be profitable： $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ $ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF(VIXY)$ $ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF(UVXY)$ $Volatility Index - main 2603(VIXmain)$ My strategy remains un

The market’s focus is gradually shifting from gold and silver to U.S. equities, but we want to remind everyone that around the coming Spring Festival period, U.S. equities are actually the asset most in need of bearish “protection.” After a sharp sell-off, the U.S. stock market has recently seen a modest rebound, which is technically normal. However, I would not take this small rebound as evidence that Hong Kong stocks, A-shares, and U.S. equities have returned to a sustained upward trend. On the contrary, I prefer to interpret it this way: the volatility cycle in U.S. equities most likely has not finished, and this rebound looks more like a “covering” move within volatility rather than a signal that a trend has been confirmed. First signal: the DXY The first signal that U.S. equities may

The US dollar index has shown signs of long-term support, but a decisive break below this level could open up much greater downside potential. After Donald Trump assumed office and initiated a trade war, the logic behind the dollar’s movement shifted, which has already been discussed previously. As a result, the dollar has experienced a sustained decline over the past several months. From the perspective of current fundamentals and monetary policy comparisons, this downward trend appears to be ahead of itself and reflects expectations of future risks. Whether the dollar will continue to fall further depends not only on subsequent developments and news but also on whether the current key long-term support can hold.The chart below shows the monthly trend channel of the dollar since the 2007/

I. How did @666 Dazi make $1.55 million?Last week, the US stock market experienced a sharp decline followed by a significant rebound. This historic market movement caused panic among many investors.A futures trader named 666 Dazi posted a screenshot early on Friday, April 12, showing a profit of $1.55 million. He is likely another mysterious big shot.From his brief sharing, it appears that he made a profit of $1.55 million by shorting one contract of $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2506(NQmain)$ .It is worth noting that on April 10, the Nasdaq fell by 852 points, rose by 2,121 points on April 9, and fell by 1,165 points on April 4. The historic volatility of the market last week was evident to all.In the futures market, such volatility can indeed le

Only when the Fed starts to panic will the market stop panicking. Only when the market collapses will the Fed surrender After last night, the new main line of trading in the market began to become clearer-cutting the bet on raising interest rates (reassessing the Fed's path of raising interest rates). ​​ ​ -At present, the market expects the end rate of the Fed's current interest rate hike cycle to be 2.95% (which is expected to be further reduced), which is lower than the 3.1% expected on Monday and lower than the 3.5% at the beginning of the month. -The next two meetings are still expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points, but the probability has dropped from 82% on Monday to 68%. -It is expected that the rate increase in the next three meetings will be 134 basis points, which

$Micro E-mini Dow Jones - Jun 2022(MYM2206)$Sweet. Hedge the profit for countering next two week of volatility, expecting it sideway after 3 bigtech report then a continuity or reversal follow byFOMC in MAY first week.

The futures market, especially the gold contract, has been a roller coaster ride lately. In just one day last Thursday, gold fluctuated by nearly $100. Let's take a look at the minimum volatility of $Gold - main 2204(GCmain)$. We can check the contract profile on the Tiger app. The contract unit is 100 troy ounces. The minimum fluctuation unit of the GC contract is 0.1 (USD/oz), equivalent to $10. In other words, when the price goes up or down, you profit or lose at least $10. Let’s take last Thursday’s trend as an example. When GC contract drops from$1976 to$1892, how much would you profit if you short gold? 1976-1892 = 84 84/0.1 * 10 = $8400 On the&n