Geopolitical Deadlock PersistsOver the weekend, the U.S.–Iran conflict has approached the two-month mark, and the negotiation deadlock remains unresolved. The Strait of Hormuz is still blocked—regardless of whether the blockade is enforced by Iran or the United States, a large number of vessels remain stranded in the strait. Although financial markets have reacted relatively optimistically, with U.S. equities rallying while oil prices fluctuate and commodities remain broadly subdued, the underlying situation has not materially changed.Market Reaction and Inflation OutlookPersistently high oil prices will gradually feed into inflation over time, so any sudden surge in prices should not come as a surprise. Meanwhile, a shooting incident occurred during Trump’s White House press conference ov

Over the past week, the Middle East situation has been marked by a ceasefire that remains temporarily in place, stalled negotiations, and no meaningful improvement in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. On April 21, Iran declined to attend the second round of U.S.-Iran talks scheduled for April 22. The United States then extended the ceasefire period and said it would maintain maritime pressure and military deterrence until Iran submits a unified proposal. This suggests that developments are not moving toward smooth diplomatic progress.As for the Strait of Hormuz, market attention has shifted from whether it is nominally open to whether actual shipping has truly resumed. The latest reports still point to disrupted transit, indicating that although the ceasefire framework has not collaps

At present, global risk appetite across risk assets is still mainly driven by U.S. equities. As the marginal impact of Federal Reserve commentary has faded, the absolute dominant force shaping market sentiment remains the progress of the U.S.-Iran war. $标普500(.SPX)$ $标普500ETF(SPY)$ $SP500指数主连 2606(ESmain)$ $微型SP500指数主连 2606(MESmain)$ $微型SP500指数2606(MES2606)$ Why do we say the Fed’s commentary has become less influential at the margin? The reason is simple. First, there is no certainty that the so-called new chair, Warsh, will actually be able to take office smoothly

The two-week negotiation window between the United States and Iran has come to an end. Over the past two weeks, market expectations were highly optimistic—U.S. equities surged, and oil prices declined. Unfortunately, as the deadline arrived, weekend news suggested that the two sides failed to reach an agreement. The final outcome will only be confirmed once a formal agreement is signed. In any case, the key signal remains unchanged: when the strait is fully reopened, that will mark the true end of this event. All other news is merely noise.There were earlier rumors suggesting that the U.S. proposed the two-week negotiation period as a cover to deploy additional military forces. If this proves true, further escalation of conflict cannot be ruled out. Investors should remain vigilant.I. Can

This session focused on how the U.S.-Iran situation may affect oil, gold, U.S. stocks, the dollar, Treasuries, and crypto under different scenarios, with special attention to the key one- to three-week window ahead.Guest Speaker: Cheng Jun (CME Guest Lecturer with more than 10 years of margin trading experience, specializing in gold and FX trading through a combination of macro analysis and Demark technical analysis)Course Link1. The current market narrative is still primarily driven by changes in the geopolitical situationMost assets are still following the same pattern: they come under pressure when tensions rise and rebound whe

Since April 9, developments between the United States and Iran have broadly followed a pattern of “ceasefire implementation and advancing negotiations, but fragile execution and unresolved disagreements.” After the two-week temporary ceasefire entered the implementation stage, the Strait of Hormuz nominally resumed limited shipping, yet the actual volume of vessel traffic remained extremely low, suggesting that maritime tensions had not genuinely eased. Then, on April 10 and 11, the United States and Iran held high-level talks in Islamabad, discussing sanctions arrangements, ceasefire boundaries, and navigation through the strait. Despite the lengthy discussions, however, no substantive breakthrough was achieved. From April 13 to 15, there were brief expectations that the ceasefire might b

Recently, the core variable in crude oil trading has still been the evolving situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Based on the information currently available, a second round of negotiations between the United States and Iran has already been put on the agenda. That, in itself, is a very important development. It suggests that the Strait of Hormuz crisis is moving away from a war-based resolution path and gradually shifting toward a negotiation-based one. In other words, the situation is easing rather than escalating. This shift matters because it directly changes the pricing logic of crude oil. If the market was previously trading on the assumption of escalating conflict, supply disruption, and uncontrolled risk, it is now beginning to price in easing tensions, advancing dialogue, and a dec

This week, ahead of the deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump, the U.S. and Iran reached a temporary two-week ceasefire agreement on April 7, brokered by Pakistan. Under the agreement, Iran consented to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for controlled navigation and submitted a "10-Point Peace Proposal," which includes the lifting of sanctions, as a foundation for subsequent comprehensive negotiations. However, less than a day into the ceasefire, Israel launched a surprise attack on Lebanon, causing the situation to deteriorate rapidly. Before the ceasefire could even take effect, conflicts escalated. Iran reacted swiftly, declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed once again and threatening to consider withdrawing from the U.S.-Iran talks. Following this series of changes, the market's barely-

In fact, the two week window of de-escalation in the conflict has long been priced into capital market movements. Although a week ago the US and Iran were still trading harsh rhetoric, with the US even threatening to destroy Iranian civilization, after all that saber-rattling you may have noticed that crude oil did not register a new high. Moreover, the US one-year inflation expectations – which typically spike along with crude oil – and the 10-year Treasury yield – which is most sensitive to US equity moves – remained remarkably calm：  $美国10年期国债收益率(US10Y.BOND)$ $3倍做空7-10年期国债ETF-Direxion(TYO)$ $20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares(TLT)$    In fact, the 10-yea

Pentagon Reshuffle Signals Ground War Last week, oil prices experienced a new round of surging—with single-week gains exceeding double digits—driven by President Trump's aggressive, pre-war mobilization-style remarks. Although a dramatic rescue of an American pilot took place over the weekend, the more critical focus remains the personnel upheaval within the upper echelons of the US military. From a logical standpoint, this could be a strategic move to install loyalists in preparation for an eventual full-scale conflict. Therefore, even if a "ground war" is not necessarily the optimal choice, the risk of its outbreak can no longer be ignored. According to public sources, at least three top military officials have been "reassigned" or "forced into retirement," including the high-ranking Arm

Market Overview This weekend coincided with China's Qingming Festival, and while overall news was quieter, international media was flooded with a barrage of unverified rumors. These ranged from President Trump falling suddenly ill to an imminent US-Iran negotiation agreement, and even a US ultimatum demanding Iran reach a deal or face escalated conflict. The strait blockade has persisted for a month, and although a few vessels are passing through, we remain far from a full reopening. Approaching Storage Limits As we enter April, the timeline previously projected by Goldman Sachs for Gulf nations' storage capacities to reach their limits is rapidly approaching. If normal navigation is not restored soon, the chain reaction across financial markets will inevitably intensify. Therefore, until

U. S. President Donald Trump delivered a national televised address on the evening of April 1, unilaterally claiming a "swift, decisive, and overwhelming victory" in military operations against Iran. He also stated that the U.S. will continue to heavily strike Iran over the next "two to three weeks," while negotiations with Iran are simultaneously proceeding. His remarks have utterly shattered the market's expectations that the "U.S.-Iran war" could end in the short term. Moreover, his approach of negotiating while launching military strikes strongly highlights an anxious state within the Trump administration: attempting to stabilize oil prices and inflation while being unable to conclude the war quickly, essentially being dragged down by Iran. The situation has clearly spiraled out of con

1. US Equities Outlook $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2606(NQmain)$ $Micro E-Mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2606(MNQmain)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(ESmain)$ $Micro E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(MESmain)$I undoubtedly remain bearish on the current trajectory of US equity indices. However, for those holding naked short positions or buying the VIX on dips,

The market initially seemed to expect the Strait of Hormuz disruption to fade quickly, much like last year’s Iranian missile retaliation, but that has not happened. Shipping disruptions have persisted, oil has surged, and investors are paying much closer attention to the inflation and growth risks that come with a prolonged energy shock. What has changed even more is the dollar. After spending much of the past year in a weak trend, the greenback has started to behave very differently since the Strait disruption. With higher oil feeding inflation concerns, rate-cut expectations for this year have been pushed back sharply, and the market is now pricing in very little easing from the Fed, which is helping support dollar demand. If the next Fed chair also turns out to be more focused on balanc

Trump ultimately opted for the "Winning Strategy" we predicted to try and defuse the situation in Iran. While this somewhat delayed move briefly pushed oil prices down from $119 to below $80, the unresolved issue in the Strait of Hormuz has kept oil prices firm, preventing the situation from returning to an ideal state. As the Middle East narrative is likely to stretch into a significantly longer cycle, the risks of high oil prices transmitting into broader inflation will materialize. One thing is certain: the longer this drags on, the bigger the trouble for financial markets.​ From a technical standpoint, oil prices printed a massive Doji star last week, characterized by exceptionally long upper and lower shadows. Typically, after such a structure appears, the market requires time to dige