-The Federal Reserve hasMade a confession to the marketIn the first trading week of 2023, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting were released. This 14-page minutes of the meeting were the most hawkish since May 2022.Minutes are usually released three weeks after the Fed announces its interest rate decision, which has been misread by the market for three weeks before.​​​Here are the key points we have compiled that can affect the market:1. Reaffirm the determination to fight inflation (fighting inflation is serious)Summary: We are determined to bring inflation back to the target level of 2% even if there is a risk of rising unemployment and slowing growth.2. Not satisfied with the stock market rise (financial situation relaxation), warning that the financial situation

The macro news was another relatively calm day, but enough to scare some traders.-The US stock market rose, the S&P 500 index broke five consecutive losses and rose by 0.8%, the Dow Jones index rose by 0.5%, and the Nasdaq index rose by 1.1%;-While stocks rose Thursday, the recent rally in U.S. Treasuries lost momentum. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. debt rose to 3.492% on Thursday from 3.407% on Wednesday. The difference between the yields of 2-10-year government bonds rose by about 1.4 basis points to-82.91 basis points;-The US dollar index fell and risk sentiment returned. In addition, the seasonal trend in December is usually unfavorable to the US dollar;-The price of gold was small last week, and it is possible to test $1,800 again;-Oil prices have fallen for five consecu

Last night, three major events were settled, and the global financial market ushered in a carnival.Let's take a look at the market trend first:-The US stock market rose across the board, the Dow Jones index rose 2.17% (entering a technical bull market), the S&P 500 index rose 3.02%, and the Nasdaq index rose 4.41% (most of the gains occurred at the end of global trading hours, Beijing time this morning);-Oil, copper and gold prices rose simultaneously;-The US dollar resumed its decline;-The yield of US bonds fell across the board, and the yield of 10-year government bonds fell by 6 basis points to 3.6847%. The difference between the yields of 2-year and 10-year government bonds rose by about 4.4 basis points to-69. 35 basis points.What can you roughly perceive from the market trend?1.

The most important event this week, the minutes of the November meeting of the Federal Reserve, were released.Look at the market impact first:-The US dollar and US bond yields fell hand in hand;-Gold, US stock market rallied.Many media take it for granted that it is influenced by "the doves' voice in the minutes is strong".Let's talk about our conclusion:There is no major accident-this is a meeting minute that "there is no surprising hawkish argument" but is misread (there are no more hawkish voices).Looking at the details, there are three key sentences:1. Most officials believe that it is expected to slow down the pace of interest rate increase "soon" (this is a news that has been hyped several times);Many analysts believe that this sentence has affected the market, which is really mislea

When the central bank hits the brakes, someone bursts out of the windshield.On Tuesday, the global market volatility was not large. On the surface, it was a "dollar rising, everything else falling" model, 1. The US dollar index has risen for five consecutive trading days, but the increase is gradually narrowing. This usually happens, which does not necessarily mean changing the market, but it must be about to meet a bigger market;2. The US dollar/Japanese yen is close to the 24-year peak, not far from the point where the Bank of Japan intervened in the foreign exchange market last time (145.90);3. The US stock market began to rise and fall, the Dow Jones index rose, and the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq index both fell;4. The international oil price fell, but the recession began to be price

-This is the Fed's last attempt, putting everything on the line.As expected, the Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points to 3%-3.25% for the third consecutive time. Although this result is in line with expectations, it is still "rare" and caused market panic.-The US stock market fell sharply across the board, and the Dow Jones index fell 1.7% to 30,183.78 points; The S&P 500 index fell 1.7% to 3789.93 points; The Nasdaq index fell 1.8% to 11,220.19 points;-Bitcoin fell 0.28% to $18,918.08, and Ethereum fell 2.16% to $1,313.67-The US dollar rose to a 20-year high and the euro fell to a 20-year low;-The price of gold plummeted once in intraday trading, but closed up;The yield of-2-year US bonds rose above 4%, breaking through this barrier for the first time since 2007.From the detai

Never grab a falling knife.Financial markets returned to turmoil on Thursday, with concerns over the Fed's decision hanging over broad markets:-U.S. stocks fell (fell at the start, rose briefly, and then fell again in shock), and the Dow Jones index fell 173.27 points, or 0.6%, to 30,961.82. The S&P 500 fell 44.66 points, or 1.1%, to 3,901.35. The Nasdaq dropped 167.32 points, or 1.4%, to 11,552.36.Note: The closing point of the S&P 500 index "3901" is very worthy of attention, which is a fierce battle level between long and short. The index fell to 3900 four times before stabilizing. On Friday, the $3.2 trillion option expired at an exercise price of 3,900 points. Once the S&P 500 index falls below 3900 points, it will trigger an accelerated decline.-Cryptocurrency was complet

Traders keep an eye on the screen before CPI data is released--From stocks and bonds to oil and gold, investors have suffered a tragic sell-off.This is a day that surprises the world.1. The CPI of the United States rose more than expected in August(As expected, the drop in oil prices has led to a sharp decline in CPI.)In August, CPI rose by 8.3% year-on-year (the market expected 8.10%, compared with the previous value of 8.5%), which is the 27th consecutive month that inflation has risen.​​​Key data:(The Fed's preferred indicator) In August, the core CPI excluding food and energy in the United States rose by 0.6% month-on-month, expected to rise by 0.3% (twice as much as expected), 6.3% year-on-year and expected to rise by 6.10%.The two most volatile factors in the CPI data, the US CPI ene

At 20:30 Beijing time tonight (Friday), the United States will release the highly anticipated non-agricultural employment data, and whether the panic selling will continue depends on tonight.Precautions:1. The market has returned to the trading state of "good news is bad news".The "unexpected increase in job vacancies in the United States" and "higher-than-expected US consumer confidence index" released earlier this week both triggered a wave of selling, because good data will strengthen the Fed's determination to raise interest rates sharply.If the non-agricultural data improves, it will trigger the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates for the third time.2. Before the release of non-agricultural data, the trend of financial market was "disordered".-The selling tide of US bonds continue

A major event has settled. The minutes of the July meeting of the Federal Reserve were released at 2:00 am Beijing time on Thursday, with a total of 12 pages, suggesting that it will continue to raise interest rates, but acknowledging the risk of excessive interest rate hikes for the first time.List of key points:1. It is revealed that the rate hike may be lowered, but there is no clear conclusion on "raising interest rates by 50 basis points or 75 basis points" in September, and it depends on economic data in the future.Before the announcement of the minutes of the meeting, the probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points and 50 basis points reflected by the market is roughly equal. After the minutes were released, futures contracts showed that the chances of raising interest

Anything is possible in this summer.The Fed has achieved initial results in fighting inflation:-The data released on Thursday showed that the PPI of the United States declined for the first time in more than two years in July;-The day before, the CPI data released in July also showed that inflation had cooled down.However, the market trend is not consistent with it. Gold prices and US Treasury bonds have fallen, and the US stock market has achieved an "inverted V" reversal. According to the original logic, when inflation falls, the Fed's interest rate hike is expected to fall simultaneously, which will benefit gold, US Treasury bonds and US stock market. However, after 23:00 last night, all three markets changed, and there was no important news at that time.The market trend shows the

Bad news is no longer regarded as good news.The US stock market closed slightly lower on the first trading day of August, but the signal was huge-bad news was no longer regarded as good news, which was a huge change in market sentiment.Look at other markets:-The US dollar index fell for four consecutive trading days, falling 1.71 or 1.73% in the past four trading days-In the bond market, the yield of 30-year US bonds fell below 2.92% for the first time since April. The 10-year yield was 2.605%, down from 2.642% last Friday (down sharply from the closing high of 3.482% hit in June). Meanwhile, the yield on the 2-year Treasury note was at 2.909%, continuing the upside-down yield curve seen as a key predictor of the recession. Recently, the focus of the market shifted from inflation to the de

The Fed will raise interest rates soon.At 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, the Federal Reserve will announce the latest interest rate resolution, and the global market sentiment is tense.From the trend of the day before the global market raised interest rates, we can clearly feel the panic of investors. It seems that everything is falling except the dollar:-The US stock market felled,But it had nothing to do with the Fed's interest rate forecast, which is mainly affected by the retail giant Wal-Mart's downward adjustment of its profit forecast for the second quarter and the whole year.,raising concerns about how the highest inflation in 40 years will affect the retail industry as a whole.-The US dollar ended its three consecutive trading days of decline.-Bitcoin fell below $21,000, and