【🎁有獎話題】美股強勢反彈，大空頭對陣SPY和QQQ，你入手了指數型ETF咩？

ETF唔係ET虎
2023-11-07

小虎們，近期美股行情大漲，跟蹤標普指數的大盤ETF顯得格外誘人！[Cool]

想必Michael Burry這位鼎鼎有名的投資家是誰大家應該都非常清楚！[YoYo]

今天ETF虎想和大家探討下Burry在2023年預測 $標普500ETF(SPY)$ 和 $納指100ETF(QQQ)$的準率如何！[666]

美國投資者兼對沖基金經理人邁克爾·伯裏(Michael Burry) 因是最早預測並從2007 年開始的次貸危機中獲利的投資者之一而聞名。邁克爾·劉易斯(Michael Lewis) 的《大空頭》一書中講述了伯利的故事，該書後來被改編成同名電影。  

Burry 在 2023 年透過 $標普500ETF(SPY)$ 和 $納指100ETF(QQQ)$ 交易所交易基金看跌期權做空市場，這讓許多投資者想知道 Burry 是否會再次正確，以及他們是否應該採取類似的舉措。 

首先我們來看看 Burry 的未接來電，並將其公司 Scion Asset Management 的業績與 $標普500ETF(SPY)$ 和 $納指100ETF(QQQ)$ 的業績進行比較。 

Michael Burry做空股市

Burry的「大空頭」讓他和他的 Scion Asset Management 客戶在 2008 年次貸危機中投入數億美元做空房屋貸款證券。時間快進到 2023年，根據8月14日的監管文件，Burry透過購買200萬股 $標普500ETF(SPY)$ 股票和200萬股 $納指100ETF(QQQ)$ 股票的看跌期權合約來做空股市。 

在這些押注之後的兩個月裡， $標普500ETF(SPY)$ 下跌了約 5%， $納指100ETF(QQQ)$ 下跌了約 2%。未來股市對伯裏的走勢還有待觀察，但他過去的巨大勝利讓投資者聆聽他的預測並考慮他做空股市的賭注。 

Michael Burry的預測失敗了

近年來，Michael Burry的預測產生了好壞參半的結果，其中許多都是負面的。

以下是伯裏未能預測的幾個例子： 

  • 2019 年 9 月：Burry警告股市泡沫和崩盤。以 $標普500ETF(SPY)$ 衡量，股市在接下來的12個月上漲了15%。 

  • 2020 年 3 月：Burry在 Covid-19 爆發期間進行了大量看跌押注，隨後標準普爾 500 指數在接下來的 12 個月內大幅上漲了 70% 以上，這表明他存在嚴重誤判。 

  • 2023 年 1 月：Burry在推特上發布了一個詞“賣出”，引用了他對經濟衰退的預測。與Burry的呼籲形成鮮明對比的是，股市將會飆升——納斯達克指數將在2023 年迎來40 年來最好的上半年。今年3月，他收回了這一呼籲，並表示， “我說賣出的說法是錯的。” 

Michael Burry對陣 SPY 和 QQQ 

在比較Burry的Scion Asset Management 與 $標普500ETF(SPY)$ 和 $納指100ETF(QQQ)$ ETF 的歷史表現時，Burry在過去一年中落後，但在三年和五年回報方面獲勝。對 $納指100ETF(QQQ)$ ，Burry10年回歸落後。

我們應該遵循Burry的預測嗎？ 

Michael Burry的一些預測取得了巨大成功，但他的整體業績記錄好壞參半，最終可能會給追隨他的投資者帶來損失。雖然他著名的「大空頭」在 2008 年為他和他的投資者帶來了數億美元，但他最初是在兩年前做出這一預測的。他在2020年代多次錯過了預測，包括 2023 年 1 月建議賣出，但市場在接下來的幾個月裡繼續大幅上漲。

最終，是否出售股票是由個人決定的。投資者在做出任何決定之前應仔細考慮自身情況和風險承受能力。遵循可能具有顯著不同的投資目標和風險承受能力的人的建議或交易。  

小虎們，美股行情強勢反彈中，你們入手了SPY與QQQ等指數型大盤ETF嗎？

💡分享你的看法贏取獎品

美股行情強勢反彈中，你們入手了SPY與QQQ等指數型大盤ETF嗎？

🎁評論可得獎勵如下噢~

🐯對以下帖子的所有有效評論都將收到5個老虎硬幣。

🐯前10名和後10名有合格評論的小虎將獲得另一個10個老虎硬幣。

🐯前5名最受歡迎和高質量的評論將獲得另一個15虎硬幣。

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Comment（83）

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  • 第N次大变革大分流
    ·2023-11-07
    TOP
    可以入手QQQ指数大盘etf，但是这都只是波段的，目前来看大盘已经没有大跌或者大涨的可能，大幅变动得到明年去了。
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  • koolgal
    ·2023-11-07
    TOP
    🌟🌟🌟Nobody can predict the market  movement correctly all the time, not even the experts like Michael Burry.  The stock market is a voting machine in the short term but in the long term it is a weighing machine. That's how Warren Buffett became a Billionaire.  That is why I plan to buy and hold ETFs like $SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF(SPLG)$ for a long, long time.
    @ETF唔係ET虎
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  • koolgal
    ·2023-11-07
    TOP
    🌟🌟🌟I also believe in the future of China and would like to invest in $ISHARES A50(02823)$ in which I gain instant access to the Top 50 biggest companies in China. 
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  • koolgal
    ·2023-11-07
    TOP
    @HelenJanet @CMLeong @icycrystal @Shyon @rL please join me in this exciting event to win more Tiger Coins 😍😍😍
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    • icycrystal: 
      [Like] [ShakeHands]
      2023-11-07
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  • icycrystal
    ·2023-11-07
    TOP
    Michael Burry, an American investor and fund manager, is famous for being one of the first investors who made profits from the sub-crisis that started in 2007.
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  • icycrystal
    ·2023-11-07
    TOP

    Michael Burry shorts the stock market


    Burry and his Scion Asset Management customers put billions of dollars into short house payment certificates in the second crisis in 2008. The time is moving forward to 2023. According to the prison document on August 14, Burry has bought 2 million sharesS&P 500ETF (SPY) $Stocks and 2 million sharesNasdaq 100ETF (QQQ) $The bearish period of stocks is to short the stock market.

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  • icycrystal
    ·2023-11-07
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    In the two months after these bets,S&P 500ETF (SPY) $It's down 5%,Nasdaq 100ETF (QQQ) $It's down 2%. It remains to be seen how the stock market is going against Bury, but the huge gains he has made and the investors who have invested money have listened to him and tested his bets on shorting the stock market.
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  • icycrystal
    ·2023-11-07
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    In the two months after these bets,S&P 500ETF (SPY) $It's down 5%,Nasdaq 100ETF (QQQ) $It's down 2%. It remains to be seen how the stock market is going against Bury, but the huge gains he has made and the investors who have invested money have listened to him and tested his bets on shorting the stock market.
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  • icycrystal
    ·2023-11-07
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    Compared with Burry's Scion Asset Management andS&P 500ETF (SPY) $And < a data-mention-id= "QQQ" class= "teeditor-mention" data-mention-name= "Nasda100ETF" href= "https://ttm.fi nancial/S/QQQ "> $Nasdaq 100ETF (QQQ) $In the history of ETF, Burry fell behind in the past year, but got a victory in three years and five years. AnswerNasdaq 100ETF (QQQ) $In 1960, Burry's 10-year return fell behind.
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  • icycrystal
    ·2023-11-07
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    Some of Michael Burry's academics have achieved great success, but his record of academics is not enough, which may eventually be lost to the investors who chase him. Although his famous "big hole" came in a few dollars for him and his investors in 2008, he first made it two years ago. He had many cases in the 2020s, including the construction and sale in January 2023, but the market continued to grow greatly in the following months.
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  • icycrystal
    ·2023-11-07
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    Ultimately, it is up to people to decide whether to sell stocks or not. Investors should take a look at their own situation and wind tolerance before making any decisions. Follow the establishment or transaction of people who may have different investment targets and wind endurance.
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  • icycrystal
    ·2023-11-07
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    March 2020:BurryDuring the outbreak of Covid-19, a large number of bearish bets were made, and after that, the 500 index of the target was greatly increased by more than 70% in the next 12 months, which indicated that he was seriously misjudged.
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  • icycrystal
    ·2023-11-07
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    January 2023:BurryPosted a piece of "Sell Out" on Twitter, citing his decline. In contrast to Burry's call, the stock market will rise-Nasdak pointed out that 2023 will usher in the best first half of the year in 40 years. In March of this year, he retracted this call and said, "I said that the method of selling is good."


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  • icycrystal
    ·2023-11-07
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    @HelenJanet @GoodLife99 @Universe宇宙 @rL @Zarkness
    receive 5 tigers for all valid theories of the following posts.

    🐯 's top 10 and bottom 10 qualified tigers will get another 10 tigers.

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  • icycrystal
    ·2023-11-07
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    @LMSunshine @Aqa @Shyon @DiAngel
    receive 5 tigers for all valid theories of the following posts.

    🐯 's top 10 and bottom 10 qualified tigers will get another 10 tigers.

    Reply
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  • TimothyX
    ·2023-11-07
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    Michael Burry的一些預測取得了巨大成功，但他的整體業績記錄好壞參半，最終可能會給追隨他的投資者帶來損失。雖然他著名的「大空頭」在 2008 年為他和他的投資者帶來了數億美元，但他最初是在兩年前做出這一預測的。他在2020年代多次錯過了預測，包括 2023 年 1 月建議賣出，但市場在接下來的幾個月裡繼續大幅上漲。


    最終，是否出售股票是由個人決定的。投資者在做出任何決定之前應仔細考慮自身情況和風險承受能力。遵循可能具有顯著不同的投資目標和風險承受能力的人的建議或交易。
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  • AliceSam
    ·2023-11-07
    我没有买这些
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  • b1uesky
    ·2023-11-07
    TOP
    我猜测今年都是上涨。可是我在购买 $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ ,长期债务。谢谢你的分享。come to comment at this post to get coins @HelenJanet @rL @Shyon @GoodLife99
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  • Universe宇宙
    ·2023-11-07
    TOP
    不管股市涨跌，小老虎都要做好功课，不要盲目跟风，OK？
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  • Universe宇宙
    ·2023-11-07
    @TigerGPT compare SPY and QQQ using SWOT analysis
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    • TigerAI: 

      根據SWOT分析，我們來比較一下SPY和QQQ這兩個指數型ETF的優勢、劣勢、機會和威脅。

      SPY (標普500ETF)

      優勢：

      SPY追蹤標普500指數，該指數包含了美國500家大型上市公司，具有良好的多元化。  

      SPY在市場上非常流動，交易量大，具有高度的流動性。  

      標普500指數長期表現穩定，是許多投資者的首選。  

        

      劣勢：

      SPY的投資組合相對較為保守，可能無法追趕一些高成長的科技股。  

      由於標普500指數是加權指數，大型公司的表現對整個指數的影響較大，可能會導致一些中小型公司的表現被忽略。  

        

      機會：

      美國經濟的持續增長和企業盈利的增加可能會推動標普500指數的上漲。  

      SPY可以作為長期投資的核心組成部分，提供穩定的回報。  

        

      威脅：

      全球經濟不穩定和地緣政治風險可能對標普500指數產生負面影響。  

      如果美國經濟增長放緩或進入衰退，標普500指數可能受到壓力。  

        

      QQQ (納指100ETF)

      優勢：

      QQQ追蹤納斯達克100指數，該指數包含了100家在納斯達克交易所上市的科技公司，具有高成長潛力。  

      QQQ在過去的幾年中表現出色，獲得了投資者的關注。  

      科技行業的長期增長趨勢可能為QQQ帶來機會。  

        

      劣勢：

      QQQ的投資組合相對集中在科技股，可能存在較高的風險。  

      納斯達克100指數中的一些公司可能面臨競爭壓力和市場波動。  

        

      機會：

      科技行業的創新和發展可能為QQQ帶來增長機會。  

      一些科技公司的股票可能會在市場上表現出色，推動QQQ的上漲。  

        

      威脅：

      科技股的高估值和市場波動可能對QQQ產生負面影響。  

      一些科技公司可能面臨監管風險和競爭壓力。  

        

      總體而言，SPY和QQQ都是受歡迎的指數型ETF，具有各自的優勢和劣勢。投資者應該根據自己的投資目標和風險承受能力做出選擇。以上分析僅供參考，並不能作為投資建議。

      【風險提示】投資有風險，入市需謹慎。以上內容僅供參考，不構成投資建議。投資者應自行判斷並承擔相應風險。

      2023-11-07
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