SmartReversals
SmartReversals
I care about helping you navigate this market. Nowadays, it's all about permabears & permabulls, I use technical indicators with objectivity. God First.
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Can $SPY $QQQ Extend Their 8-Week Winning Streak?

U.S. stocks advanced ahead of the long weekend, positioning the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ for an eight-week winning streak. This marks the longest weekly run for the benchmark index since December 2023. The S&P 500 rose 0.88% after approaching to our bearish target of 7,325 and bounced. The $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ gained +1.2% also after touching its bearish target of 28,609 and the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ added 2.2% during the week. This late-week strength emerged as investors absorbed falling government bond yields and a pullback in energy costs (Crude Oil $WTI Crude Oil - main 2607(CLmain)$ fell -8.2% during these five days). Th
Can $SPY $QQQ Extend Their 8-Week Winning Streak?

$SPY Holds Key Demand While $NOW Flashes Bullish Reversal Signals

1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Dip buyers jumped in close to the 7,360 daily demand zone. The candle suggests a bullish reversal, the MACD crossover indicates the trend is switching, making further decline likely. The gap at 7,273 is a must-watch zone. Received two questions in different platforms -> to clarify: The bearish MACD suggests the bullish trend is switching. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ 2. $ServiceNow(NOW)$ It's now or never for ServiceNow. Reversal signs are accumulating, and the price action remains structurally bullish above 92.4. $iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF(IGV)$
$SPY Holds Key Demand While $NOW Flashes Bullish Reversal Signals

Relevant Bearish Signals Take the Lead

Back in November 2025, I published a special study outlining our primary bullish target for 2026: 7,470 on the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ . Today, that exact mark has been reached, defying the widespread pessimism observed back in March. That analysis was rooted entirely in documented technical patterns, with zero gut feeling involved. Last Wednesday, our Market Intelligence study provided a clear roadmap for what to expect over the next few months, and Friday’s reversal appears to strongly validate the thesis we laid out. Furthermore, back on March 28, this publication highlighted the high probability of a bounce. By disciplined tracking of our weekly SPX levels and key technical indicators, we successfully navigated a 16%+ rally using one simple rule:
Relevant Bearish Signals Take the Lead

Stocks on Cautious Note as Yields Spike and Tech Slips

U.S. equities retreated from recent record highs as geopolitical friction and a sharp bond market decline weighed on investor sentiment. The S&P 500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ printed a muted week with a net gain of +0.13%, the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ closed muted -0.1%, and the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ declined -0.38%. Sector dynamics told a divergent story. Energy outperformed sharply, rising +6.7% during the week ( $Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLE)$ ), while high-growth equities bore the brunt of the selloff. Discretionary dropped 3.1%, reflecting renewed caution. Materials and utilities also surrendered 2% each as Treasury volatili
Stocks on Cautious Note as Yields Spike and Tech Slips

SPX Structure: Why Bears Should Stand Ready

The stock market continues moving in euphoric mode, and the question now is: what is coming next? Today, 7,460 was reached by the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ , very close to a level I anticipated since November 2025. We are going to study what to expect from the market moving forward, considering the current overbought conditions and the recent price action. Regarding our high-probability trades posted last Saturday, a bullish move was anticipated for $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ , targeting 445 for a 3.5% move 🎯. That target was reached and surpassed today. Now, monitoring price action using daily levels is worth considering, as the stock is showing some overextended conditions. Another bullish setup anticipated was
SPX Structure: Why Bears Should Stand Ready

Mega-Caps Keep SPX Bullish Despite Weak Breadth

The market remains in a cautiously bullish regime. The rally continues, and fighting the trend can be risky; as mentioned yesterday, using specific levels to identify a bearish reversal is more effective than trying to anticipate one. Market breadth remains weak: just 41% of the stocks listed in the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ are above their 20-day moving average, and only 46.5% are above their 50-day moving average. In the Weekly Compass, we discussed the importance of maintaining at least 50% participation, a threshold currently only being met by the 200-day moving average. This essentially shows that while momentum is bullish, there is a significant divergence. Proceeding with caution is essential, as the rally is narrow and driven by a few mega-caps.
Mega-Caps Keep SPX Bullish Despite Weak Breadth

The Value of Objective Discipline: Navigating a +16% Rally

Can Technology Alone Sustain the Rally as Market Breadth Deteriorates? On March 28th, this publication anticipated how oversold the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ was, based on three essential technical indicators. Premium subscribers were able to see the confluence of these metrics and the high likelihood of a bounce, a move that was confirmed once the Central Weekly Level (CWL) of 6,458 was recovered. This occurred on Tuesday, March 31st, as the S&P 500 rallied 2.9%. Additionally, I introduced my Founding Members' daily levels for all subscribers. These provided an early bullish signal as long as the price remained above 6,362, offering an extra layer of validation, earlier entry for longs, and enhanced risk management. Because a gap was left open that
The Value of Objective Discipline: Navigating a +16% Rally

Stocks Hit Record Highs as AI Boom, Strong Jobs Data, and Tech Earnings Fuel Market Rally

The U.S. stock market had a milestone week ending May 8, 2026, characterized by record highs and strong economic data that countered ongoing geopolitical tensions. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ both hit fresh all-time highs as the “V-shaped recovery” and the “Three Weekly Soldiers” setups continue being validated. This is the sixth consecutive weekly gain for the SPX and the NDX. Technology and semiconductors continued to lead the charge, fueled by persistent demand for AI infrastructure. Conversely, the energy sector lagged mid-week but saw late recovery as oil prices fluctuated. April Jobs Report: The U.S. economy added 115,000 jobs in April, nearly double the 65,000 expected. The unemplo
Stocks Hit Record Highs as AI Boom, Strong Jobs Data, and Tech Earnings Fuel Market Rally

Weekly Compass: $TSLA $SLV $GOOGL Continue Bullish Follow-Through 🚀

Before we dive into the 50-year historical study, let’s look at how our high-probability setups from last Saturday’s Weekly Compass are performing. Of the nine setups identified, seven remain active in the expected direction: $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ : +3.1% (Bullish as expected) $iShares Bitcoin Trust(IBIT)$ / Bitcoin: +3.9% / +4.2% (Bullish as expected since a month ago!) Silver ( $iShares Silver Trust(SLV)$ ): +2.7% (Bullish as expected) $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ : +2.5% (Bullish as expected) $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ : +2.0% (Bullish as expected) $Berkshire
Weekly Compass: $TSLA $SLV $GOOGL Continue Bullish Follow-Through 🚀

$SPX Tests 7,299 Resistance as $IWM Shows Early Momentum Weakness

SPX is approaching key resistance at 7,299 while showing early divergence signals. IWM remains bullish but is starting to show initial momentum weakness, though trend structure is still intact. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Don't fight the trend until key levels are breached. The recent indecisive candle is suggesting to be an early signal as the Stochastic divergence continues to extend. It is a matter of when, not if. Next major resistance: $7,299, the "Tom Lee Warning Zone". 2. $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ Bullish until proven otherwise by the loss of key levels. In the meantime, watch the emerging bearish MACD cross. This signal preceded minor consolidations (A & B) and one deeper pullback (C). Current
$SPX Tests 7,299 Resistance as $IWM Shows Early Momentum Weakness

Divergence Builds: $SPX Strong, $IWM Weak, $IGV Resilient

The market is grinding higher, but the internals are sending mixed signals. While smart money remains steady—reducing the risk of a sharp selloff—rising retail confidence, gap-heavy price action, and divergences point toward a near-term consolidation rather than continued straight-line upside. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Dumb money confidence is strengthening while the SP500 continues to move higher, leaving behind gaps and indecisive candles. The good news is that smart money remains stable; so a major decline (-5%) is not expected, though a healthy consolidation (-1% -2%) is possible. 2. $iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF(IGV)$ The Software ETF showed resilience this week, with a 1.7% gain. The bounce
Divergence Builds: $SPX Strong, $IWM Weak, $IGV Resilient

Will Bears Have a Chance Next Week?

Back on March 28, I highlighted in this publication how likely was the market to bounce, the call was unpopular, but my role is to assess the price action with neutrality, when the market is exhausted I call it for both directions, and that was the case back then. I highlight technical conditions, not news, not noise, price action generally precedes them, and this time was no different like in the tariff war in 2025, the further inflation fears in 2022. My statements included: “Oversold conditions have been seriously reached”, “If the market does not set a relief bounce next week, it would be against the trend of the last 25 years including the dot com and the great financial crisis” My analysis is clear and specific: I use indicators to identify potential reversals, and I use modeled pric
Will Bears Have a Chance Next Week?

From AI Spending to Oil Shock: Key Forces Driving the 2026 Market

This week has been one of the most consequential for the 2026 market, defined by a historic Federal Reserve meeting and a flood of top-tier economic data. The Fed opted to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%–3.75% for the third consecutive meeting, but the decision was marked by a rare level of internal dissent not seen since 1992. Four officials broke from the majority, signaling a significant rift over how to handle the “oil shock” caused by ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. With Brent crude $WTI Crude Oil - main 2606(CLmain)$ hovering above $100 per barrel and headline inflation spiking to 3.3% in March, the central bank’s “wait-and-see” approach is being severely tested by rising energy costs and a resilient labor market, where
From AI Spending to Oil Shock: Key Forces Driving the 2026 Market

$META Eyes Gap Fill While $SPX Prepares for Major Move

Markets are flashing mixed signals—index-level strength is holding, but internal breadth continues to weaken. With sentiment elevated and volatility compressing, both the S&P 500 and key mega caps like Meta are approaching inflection points where the next decisive move could define the near-term trend. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Bulls managed to avoid the bearish MACD crossover that seemed imminent last month, mirroring the price action seen in 2018. Beyond that, the monthly candle shows conviction, a move that is usually followed by bullish continuation when a reversal begins as highlighted. The divergence with stock participation persists, as the percentage of stocks above their 20DMA has dropped to only 50% of the index constituents. Greed sits
$META Eyes Gap Fill While $SPX Prepares for Major Move

SPX: Market Peak or Tactical Pause?

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ The divergence with stock participation persists, as the percentage of stocks above their 20DMA has dropped to only 50% of the index constituents. Greed sits at 64, and the indecisive price action suggests a significant move is imminent. The S&P 500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rallied for three consecutive weeks when it bounced, gaining over 3% each week. Such an occurrence is rare in the stock market; the move was so rapid that apathy is the common human reaction, similar to what is observed during a breadth thrust signal. Today, the market is consolidating after this sharp move. Considering the high expectations seen across social media and mainstream news for a decline, I am providing a
SPX: Market Peak or Tactical Pause?

Extreme Optimism Signals Near-Term Pullback Across SPX, SPY & QQQ; Semis Cooling

Markets are flashing early signs of exhaustion after a strong run. Sentiment has shifted toward extreme optimism, breadth is weakening, and key indicators are entering overbought territory. While the broader trend remains intact, these conditions typically precede a period of consolidation or a healthy pullback before the next leg higher. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Dumb Money Confidence has entered the Extreme Optimism zone, a level that historically coincides with index consolidations or healthy pullbacks. Furthermore, the Fear & Greed Index sits at 67 (Greed), while Smart Money Confidence is neutral ahead of major earnings reports. 2. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Stock participation has deteriorated
Extreme Optimism Signals Near-Term Pullback Across SPX, SPY & QQQ; Semis Cooling

Tech Earnings Week: $AMZN $META $GOOG Overbought, Pullback or Breakout?

CHOOSE YOUR RISK THIS WEEK: Tech giants are heading into earnings with gaps and overheated in the daily: $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ : Overbought RSI | 1st Gap: -7% $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ : Mild RSI Divergence | 1st Gap: -8% $Alphabet(GOOG)$ : RSI Divergence | 1st Gap: -7% Gap fill this week? $Apple(AAPL)$ Weekly bullish MACD crossovers usually precede average moves of +5% within three weeks. With earnings scheduled for this Thursday, the week is key to confirm the signal, currently brewing. $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ : Are breakouts bullish? They are. Just be aware that the la
Tech Earnings Week: $AMZN $META $GOOG Overbought, Pullback or Breakout?

Will the Magnificent Earnings Week Extend the Rally or Expose the Cracks Beneath It?

The week ending April 24 delivered a technically rich but internally divided market. $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ and $S&P 500(.SPX)$ consolidated as anticipated in the previous Weekly Compass, with the SPX filling its gap at $7,051.2 as likely considered. Tech $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ surged +2.4% for the week, and the semiconductor sector printed a +9.1% breakout reaching unprecedented overbought conditions that we will study today. The Three Green Soldiers pattern on the SPX and NDX weekly chart mentioned last week is in bullish play, and Bitcoin continues moving north since it was anticipated three weeks ago. The cryptocurrency has gained +13.7% since, and Ethereum +9.9%. B
Will the Magnificent Earnings Week Extend the Rally or Expose the Cracks Beneath It?

SPX & SPY Signal Upside Continuation While BTC Maintains Bullish Momentum Toward $80.6K

Markets are holding a constructive tone, with equities showing signs of continued upside despite short-term consolidation, while Bitcoin maintains strong momentum within a sustained bull trend. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ During the last 10 years, every time the Stochastic bounced from oversold area and made it above 50, the index maintained bullish continuation and consolidated when the oscillator was overbought (+80) with both lines. There is room for further gains, as %D is at 65%. 2. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Indecision at the Top: The price has moved between 702.5 and 711 this week, building a small volume shelf. Any loss of today’s low could send the price to $695 (volume shelf below), validating
SPX & SPY Signal Upside Continuation While BTC Maintains Bullish Momentum Toward $80.6K

SPX Holds Support as NDX Stabilizes and Invesco QQQ Signals Potential Bottom

Markets are showing early signs of stabilization, with key indices holding support and momentum indicators turning constructive. While short-term consolidation may emerge, leadership strength and improving technical signals suggest the groundwork for a potential upside continuation—especially with earnings acting as the next major catalyst. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ The gap at 7,051 served well as support. While today’s move was tech-driven and price action felt indecisive excluding the $Defiance Large Cap ex-Mag 7 ETF(XMAG)$ giants, this does not imply a lack of conviction. These leaders are bouncing and could fuel the move heading into next week’s earnings. $Cboe Volat
SPX Holds Support as NDX Stabilizes and Invesco QQQ Signals Potential Bottom

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