SmartReversals
SmartReversals
I care about helping you navigate this market. Nowadays, it's all about permabears & permabulls, I use technical indicators with objectivity. God First.
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01-04 06:58

The Winners of the Week: Physical Economy & Defense

The indecisive price action observed at the close of last week anticipated the recent decline in the major U.S. indices. However, as mentioned in my previous publications, the gap fill for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ is the best outcome that could happen for bullish continuation.The first trading week of 2026 presented a significant rotation, since investors reduced exposure to 2025’s growth darlings; specifically Technology and Consumer Discretionary, and reallocated capital into defensive, physical assets like Energy and Utilities.In recent weeks, I highlighted the bearish setups for both $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ and
The Winners of the Week: Physical Economy & Defense
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01-04 06:55

Gap Filled: Is the SPX Cleared for Bullish Continuation?

The indecisive price action highlighted last weekend was validated by the pullback observed this week in the S&P 500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ . The final week of the year closed in the red, with declines of -1% for the SPX, -1.7% for the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ , and -1% for small caps ( $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ ). However, this decline resolves a ‘loose end’ that would have injected significant uncertainty into the price action had we seen an immediate bullish continuation.The $6,840 gap was filled, just as we considered last weekend and reinforced on Wednesday morning in the mid-week market update. Now, it is time to assess the market structure and key support le
Gap Filled: Is the SPX Cleared for Bullish Continuation?

Will the Jobs Data Trigger a Healthy Gap Fill on the SPX and NDX?

The final day of the year has arrived. Congratulations on your trading and investment performance. Regardless of your specific returns, be aware that you have just navigated a historically unique year; one with few precedents.We witnessed a rapid selloff comparable in velocity to 2020, rather than the slow-motion bear market of 2022. Then, mirroring 2020 again, we saw a V-shaped recovery from a major correction, accompanied by a confluence of rare bullish events: a breadth thrust and two distinct ‘up volume’ days. We studied these events individually as they occurred, noting how statistically improbable it is to witness them all within a single calendar year.The average active trader survives only one or two years in this business. When these rare events are experienced in real-time; rathe
Will the Jobs Data Trigger a Healthy Gap Fill on the SPX and NDX?
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2025-12-29

Strong Growth Anchors the ‘Santa Rally’

SmartReversalsDec 28, 2025∙ PaidThe week ended in positive territory for major U.S. indices as considered a week ago based on their price structure. Our high-probability setups correctly favored bullish moves for $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$. Tech indeed led the move illustrated by the sector heatmap below for the week with $Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLK)$ jumping +3.7% and Financials $Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLF)$ following with +2.3%.5 Days Move per Sector:A sharp di
Strong Growth Anchors the ‘Santa Rally’
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2025-12-27

SPX Breakout Hits Modeled Targets

Last week, the Weekly Compass anticipated a bullish context for the overall stock market that played out perfectly. Following the setup highlighted for premium subscribers, the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ jumped 1,4%. As shown in the chart below, our analysis identified a specific pattern (highlighted in yellow) that suggested bullish continuation for the week that just ended.My approach combines technical indicators with modeled support and resistance levels. A cornerstone of this strategy is the Central Weekly Level (CWL). When the price stays above the CWL, it validates a bullish setup; when it remains below, it confirms a bearish outlook. For this week, the CWL sat at $6,805. Since price action remained consistently above this threshold, traders using
SPX Breakout Hits Modeled Targets
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2025-12-23

ORCL Leads Weekly Ticker Mentions as Reversal Signals Align

$Oracle(ORCL)$ Was the most suggested ticker this week in the premium chat. Hammer validated by volume, reversal at volume shelf + 100 MA, oscillator oversold. The key levels to watch are included in the analysis, along with the ones for other 60+ securities suggested like $iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN(VXX)$ $Amgen(AMGN)$ $UnitedHealth(UNH)$ $AppLovin Corporation(APP)$ $Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ $Royal Caribbean Cruises(RCL)$ $NASD
ORCL Leads Weekly Ticker Mentions as Reversal Signals Align
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2025-12-21

SPX at a Crossroads: Bounce or Bull Trap?

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ : Price action lacks conviction considering the intra-day reversal. The weekly support of $6,784 now holding as resistance in confluence with the 20DMA must be recovered to validate a more compelling bounce. The fast oscillator, is looking identical to previous bottoms. The bounce on Friday recovered essential levels and the 20DMA. Price action along with the oscillator suggests bullish continuation. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs.🎉Cash Boost Account Now Supports 35,000+ Stocks & ETFs – Greater Flexibility NowFind out
SPX at a Crossroads: Bounce or Bull Trap?
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2025-12-19

SPX: Lacks Conviction, 6784 Support Now Key Resistance

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ : Price action lacks conviction considering the intra-day reversal. The weekly support of $6,784 now holding as resistance in confluence with the 20DMA must be recovered to validate a more compelling bounce. The fast oscillator, is looking identical to previous bottoms. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2603(ESmain)$ The gap was filled✅, and the candle shows promising indecision.Be careful being too bearish here. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs.
SPX: Lacks Conviction, 6784 Support Now Key Resistance
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2025-12-18

From LLY to IWM: How Price Levels Define Risk and Reward

Over the past three weeks, the high probability trades have performed with a high level of accuracy. These setups always include a target price and an invalidation level which, in most cases, is the Central Weekly Level (CWL).The purpose of posting targets is to establish an objective metric based on price action. This gives you an edge in anticipating potential reversals, which is why targets are placed at these specific zones.Take this week, for example. The Weekly Compass anticipated a bullish move for $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ , targeting $505.4 for a 1.2% upside. Price reached that level as early as Monday afternoon but retraced quickly on Tuesday. This illustrates the importance of using levels: once a target is reached, it becomes new su
From LLY to IWM: How Price Levels Define Risk and Reward
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2025-12-16

SPX Needs a Strong Bounce to Prove Itself

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ - The bearish Stochastic crossover remains a valid thesis, and the Head and Shoulders formation is now so obvious that it must be seriously considered. While the market may open green tomorrow morning, any minor bounce must prove its strength by recovering key price levels. 7 of the last 9 bearish crossovers have set the stage for further bearish continuation. One of the exceptions was an early warning signal. The other exception happened last week; if IT was also an early signal, red continuation is likely toward 20DMA. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs.
SPX Needs a Strong Bounce to Prove Itself
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2025-12-16

SPX Case Study - Decoding Price Action

In investing, relying on headlines or hunches is a fast track to losses. To succeed, you must replace subjective opinions with objective data. This edition focuses on the critical technical indicators that strip away the noise and reveal the true state of the market. We are moving beyond simple charts to help you understand market structure and time your entries and exits with mathematical precision.Why Simple Charts Aren’t Enough The first slide below illustrates the “naked” chart, a basic line graph. While it shows you the general direction, it fails to tell you the story behind the move. It misses the critical “when” and “where” of trading: Is the price extended? Are we hitting a concrete floor or ceiling?To trade off $S&P 500(.SPX)$ chart
SPX Case Study - Decoding Price Action
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2025-12-15

SMH Heavyweights TSM & AVGO Flash Bearish Signals

SMH Heavyweights TSM & AVGO Flash Bearish Signals1. $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ : One of the big components of the $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ is showing signals of an imminent pullback, if the reversal candle has follow through, the price must find support before falling in the volume gap, where volatility usually accelerates. 2. $Broadcom(AVGO)$ Broadcom is one of the giants constantly tracked using S/R Levels. The latest candle shows bearish conviction, and the MACD crossover is concerning. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks,
SMH Heavyweights TSM & AVGO Flash Bearish Signals
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2025-12-14

Navigating Post-Rate Cut Volatility

The anticipated volatility outlined in last week’s Weekly Compass played out exactly as expected. Price action oscillated around the Central Weekly Levels (CWL) for major indices: $6,855 for $S&P 500(.SPX)$ , $25,559 for $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ , $684 for $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ , and $622 for $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ . We saw a breakout attempt on Wednesday following the confirmation of the rate cut, which was quickly met with a choppy Thursday. By Friday, the market reversed rapidly; a classic signature of a rate decision week.However, a divergence emerged early in the week: both the
Navigating Post-Rate Cut Volatility
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2025-12-14

$QQQ Bearish Near $611$; $NVDA Hits 20DMA

$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ : Long candlesticks indicate momentum, and the latest one, combined with the Stochastic crossover, suggests bearish continuation. Price action points lower, unless the combined support of the 20 & 50DMA, and the CML at $611 act as a bouncer. $619 gap fill for good? $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ : The price action has been tamed by the 20DMA after finding rejection at $185.90. Most of the move may already be priced in. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs.🎉Cash Boost Account Now Supports 35,000+ Stock
$QQQ Bearish Near $611$; $NVDA Hits 20DMA
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2025-12-13

SPX Bearish Crossovers Signal Downside Risk Toward 20-DMA

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ : 7 of the last 9 bearish crossovers have set the stage for further bearish continuation. One of the exceptions was an early warning signal. The other exception happened last week; if IT was also an early signal, red continuation is likely toward 20DMA. As I said yesterday, $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ : choppiness is normal after a rate cut, and today serves as example. The bounce was fueled by Materials, Financials, Industrials, and Health C, offsetting the lag seen in Tech. The chop can continue if semis $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ and giants continue weak. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading
SPX Bearish Crossovers Signal Downside Risk Toward 20-DMA
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2025-12-12

NVDA Rejection & SPY Post-Cut Choppiness

1. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$Do you analyze your stocks using this type of chart? If so, read this free article on the importance of technical analysis. It also highlights the exact price level where the stock was rejected this week. 👇👇👇 2. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ As detailed in the market update⬇️, choppiness is normal after a rate cut, and today serves as example. The bounce was fueled by Materials, Financials, Industrials, and Health C, offsetting the lag seen in Tech. The chop can continue if semis $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ and giants continue weak. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with u
NVDA Rejection & SPY Post-Cut Choppiness
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2025-12-09

Decoding Price Action - NVDA Case Study

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ In the world of investing, making decisions based on news, opinions or beliefs, is a recipe for disaster. Today’s publication is designed to demonstrate just how crucial it is to use technical indicators to make informed, data driven decisions rather than relying on gut feelings. This guide highlights essential indicators that every investor and trader must consider to navigate the markets effectively. By moving beyond basic visuals, you can unlock a deeper understanding of market structure, validating your entries and exits with precision.The “Naked” Chart vs. Reality The journey begins with the most basic form of data: the area or line chart. As seen in the first slide, this view offers almost no actionable information. It merely
Decoding Price Action - NVDA Case Study
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2025-12-07

Buckle Up for the Fed

This Weekly Compass correctly anticipated bullish moves in individual securities last week based on the high probability setups listed, the bullish moved were significant: $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ jumped +3.9%, $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ surged +5.8%, $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ rallied +3.5%, $iShares Silver Trust(SLV)$ gained +3.4%, $Costco(COST)$ reached its bullish target of $924 and retraced, same case for $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ that touched the bullish target $236 and reversed; in the case of $iSh
Buckle Up for the Fed
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2025-12-07

NVDA Momentum Turns Up as SPX Tests Bullish Reversal Signal

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ : The move looks constructive; a bottom is likely in. The 20DMA rejected the price during the week, but once it is recovered, the volume shelf will act as a launchpad.There is one oscillator mentioned in my pinned tweet that suggests bullish continuation, which one?. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : Candles with low wicks forming hammers or dragonflies have preceded bullish momentum, as candlesticks with upper wicks have preceded declines. Will this time be different? Interest rate decision priced in?. Manage your risk using S/R levels, & use individual setups!👇👇👇. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, H
NVDA Momentum Turns Up as SPX Tests Bullish Reversal Signal
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2025-12-06

QQQ/SPX – Pullback & Reversal Candlestick Signals

$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ : Consolidation (pullback) is likely ahead considering the indecisive candle and the crossover in the oscillator. The end of the world? No, this signals a healthy, renewed entry point. Shooting Star Candle in the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ This candlestick is the opposite version of the hammer and dragonfly formation as the arrows below highlight; when those candlesticks show an intra day reversal, they are a significant signal to watch, sometimes they are immediate tops or bottoms, and sometimes they are early signals.For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out
QQQ/SPX – Pullback & Reversal Candlestick Signals

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