U.S. stocks fell for a fourth consecutive session today as a fresh spike in crude oil prices and jumping Treasury yields weighed on investor sentiment. The August Producer Price Index (PPI) report revealed wholesale inflation grew by 0.4% month-over-month and 5.4% year-over-year. The combination of stubborn inflation and triple-digit oil prices (CL=F: $103.9) fueled bets that the FED will raise interest rates next week, with the current probability sitting at 71%. Adding pressure to the market, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates by 25 basis points today to control inflation pressures. Yesterday I noted that the bearish move was unlikely complete for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ , considering a potential gap fill attempt to 7,667. The

Another day, another rally — and another gap. For $S&P 500(.SPX)$ , I’m still not interested in fighting the trend. The market keeps pushing higher, so there’s no reason to force a bearish trade here. That said, 7,610 has already been tested, and I still have 7,681 on the radar. Eventually, I expect that level to come into play, while 7,610 remains unfinished business. 👀 In a choppy market, individual names can tell a very different story. $SpaceX(SPCX)$ $Netflix(NFLX)$ $iShares Bitcoin Trust(IBIT)$ $Wal-Mart(WMT)$ are all holding the bullish setup we expected. 🚀 Then there’s

U.S. stocks rallied propelled upward as Treasury yields fell following comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who indicated he would support holding interest rates steady at the upcoming policy meeting later this month. The probabilities for a rate hike in the next FOMC meeting fell to 50% today, from 63% yesterday, a major change that fueled the stock market. On the macro site, the ADP private sector payrolls report showed an increase of 38,000 jobs in August, coming in below estimates and providing further evidence of a cooling labor market, a factor that also favors continuation in interest rates instead of a rate hike. With that said, the rally left a new gap open for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ at 7,681 and for the

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ bounced today following oversold conditions and the indecisive price action (daily doji) observed yesterday. The bearish target for the week at 7,642.7 was breached, and then, the Central Daily Level that was modeled yesterday to consider bullish or bearish momentum was smoothly reclaimed today at the open. The SP500 opened below 7,635.4 and steadily gained upside momentum, moving toward the next bullish target of 7,659 before approaching with 7,681 to the next modeled level of 7,687. Price action printed a technical bounce, but tomorrow we will see how sustainable this move is by holding tomorrow’s central daily level (CDL and posted below), especially given that today’s rejection occurred right at a key monthly level for

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is down -1% so far this week, losing its central weekly level of 7,707.1 as anticipated on Saturday and breaching the bearish target of 7,642. The index is currently testing the critical 7,638 zone; if it isn’t reclaimed quickly, the downward move could gain momentum. Meanwhile, the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ , which was hovering at year-to-date lows and primed for a bounce, has rallied +13% this week alone. Once the $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2609(ESmain)$ lost the anticipated Central Daily level of 7,700 overnight, the bearish continuation was triggered to start the month. The E-mini futures found temporary morning support at 7,651

In his first keynote address at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish tone centered heavily on price stability: Inflation Focus: Warsh stated that with the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge sitting at 3.7%, prices are running too far above the 2% target. He warned, “We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do.” Monetary Tool Reaffirmation: He clarified that short-term interest rates remain the Fed’s principal tool to combat price pressures, and noted he would be “hard pressed” to describe current financial conditions as restrictive. Limiting Forward Guidance: Warsh advocated for a “quieter” central bank that avoids overcommitting to futu

U.S. stocks closed higher on Tuesday, August 25, 2026, driven by a rebound in semiconductor companies and a pullback in oil prices and Treasury yields. Investors largely downplayed escalating geopolitical and trade headlines, focusing instead on key events scheduled for later in the week. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ moved within the range of daily levels posted yesterday, with 210 serving as the Central Daily Level and 213 as the next level if the price stayed above it. There is still work to do to recover the central weekly level and completely flip momentum. However, a positive for the bulls, though it does not guarantee a bullish reaction to the earnings report is that the gaps analyzed in the Weekly Compass at 213 and 208.7 were cleared yesterday with the

On August 3, I flagged a bearish reversal in $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ based on the price action. The 256 support level has now been reached, confirming the target. With Amazon becoming increasingly oversold, trailing stops are key for short positions from here. 📌 Monday’s game plan: Above 258.9: bullish bias → watch 260, then 263 Below 258.9: expect choppy action around 256 and 254.9 The key is how price reacts around 258.9. A clean reclaim would favor a short-term bounce, while failure to recover it keeps the downside structure intact. Amazon closed at $258.63 on Aug. 21, putting it almost directly at this key pivot.

Technical analysis has proven to be a powerful edge for both long-term investors and traders. Over the past weeks, I have provided documented calls with clear references to significant moves in the market, and this week offers a good opportunity to connect precise calls. On July 29th, I called the bullish reversal for $Gold - main 2612(GCmain)$ with specific levels. While many analysts had been constructing the bull case for months, Gold had already dropped roughly 30% from its peak, a drawdown that even the most committed long-term holders struggle to sit through without a technical framework to lean on. The call was documented, $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ is up +13.9% since my note, the levels were clear,

As posted yesterday, the setup for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust(DIA)$ looked mostly bearish. The central daily levels provided of 7,717 for the SPX, 534 for DIA, and 7,730 for the $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2609(ESmain)$ , were shared to validate the bearish setup if the price stayed below them. The SPX did open below the central daily level (CDL) that sets momentum. When the price stays below it, the structure favors the bearish thesis, and the opening far below it validated the technical setup. Next, the price lost 7,690 and attempted to fill the daily gap, but momentum vanished quickly, flipping the 7,690 defense

$Gold - main 2612(GCmain)$ doesn’t behave like a stock or a bond. There are no earnings to model, no dividends to discount, and no CEO to blame when the price drops. What gold reflects, more than anything else, is the collective confidence people have in the institutions managing money. When that confidence is high, gold is ignored. When it starts to crack, gold gets attention fast. $Silver - main 2609(SImain)$ follows the same logic but adds a wrinkle: it has a real industrial life. Solar panels, electronics, electric vehicles, medical equipment. That dual identity makes silver louder, more volatile, and more interesting to trade, but also harder to hold when the industrial cycle turns against it

$SPX was rejected around 7,714 today before sliding toward 7,684, keeping the short-term structure firmly on the defensive. The key question now is whether the current move develops into a broader gap fill toward 7,610. 👀 For the bearish gap-fill thesis to remain intact, 7,760 is the level that matters most. A recovery back above 7,760 would weaken or invalidate the setup. Until then, 7,714 and 7,684 remain the next downside levels to watch as the move potentially develops over several sessions. ⚠️ Tomorrow's FOMC minutes at 2:00 PM add another layer of event risk. Volatility could increase sharply around the release, so the short-term path may remain bearish or choppy rather than develop into a clean directional move. 📊 The bigger picture is different. The medium- and long-term structure