The stock market has been characterized by exceptionally choppy price action over the last seven weeks. We witnessed the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ go nowhere for three months, spanning the final quarter of 2025 through January 2026. That directionless route is found a resolution to the bearish side as anticipated at the end of January when this publication anticipated “Cracks Under the Surface”. However, the most striking feature of the current market is the lack of conviction. If you are a new trader feeling frustrated by the inability to find a clear trend as a bull or a bear, do not worry. This environment is uncommon. Usually, pullbacks are marked by solid bearish conviction candles

Losing the Central Monthly level for a short period like in November happens a couple of times per year, however, few weeks ago I highlighted that staying below this level for long is a concerning condition from corrections and bear markets. Currently the price for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and most of the securities from our watchlist is below this level. The second chart is a zoom in of the Central Weekly Level for the same period, see the price breaching the “C” marked in green in some weeks as part of the normal price action of a bull market. Since February, the dotted area shows how volatile has been the price printing multiple invalidations or reversals during the same week. The zoomed chart includes the Central Weekly Level AND the support an

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ Even during persistent downtrends, such as the 2025 tariff crash, breaching the lower Bollinger Band has consistently represented an extreme condition that triggers relief bounces. No exception. There is no doubt a short squeeze is coming considering also the McClellan Oscillator that is more oversold than it was in the 2025 bottom. The key point is to watch if $6,882 is recovered, that would validate a solid and sustainable bounce. The bearish move is overextended as posted previously, and seasonality favors a bounce. $SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust(DIA)$ has the same overextended setup as the $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ . Fo

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ : Two valid perspectives on this chart: A) Bearish: Every bounce has faded; lower highs have persisted for a month. B) Bullish: The volume shelf is holding, and a Stochastic crossover suggests continuation. My take: Bullish above $676; breakdown below. ⚖️ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ : $601 The Money Flow Index is as oversold as the 2023 correction and the 2025 bottom. It sits BELOW COVID crash levels, exceeded only by the 2022 bear market lows. Most of the bearish move is in. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs.

On Sunday night, Crude Oil $WTI Crude Oil - main 2604(CLmain)$ reached the extreme overbought conditions that I highlighted using the chart below in my Substack Notes and on X. For the paid community, I provided that same analysis in our private chat, including the weekly levels where a reversal was most likely to occur. The overbought conditions relative to the Bollinger Bands reached historic extremes, surpassing levels seen during the 1990 Gulf War and the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Unlike the price-driven peaks of 2008, this overbought conditions are the result of rapid price action fueled by extreme sentiment and a geopolitical conflict. The high of the week so far has been $119, near the modeled level of $122.9, the price has retraced sin

$Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF(MAGS)$ The Mag7 ETF shows the situation for the giants: Weakening price action and here a downtrend set by the 20 daily average. The lower highs and lower lows is narrowing. A breach of $61.2 would trigger a revisit of the lows and a validation of the reversal candle. That said, bullish above $61.2. As the oversold McClellan Oscillator and the breach of the lower Bollinger Band suggested, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ price was set for a bounce today. The index now must sustain itself above the key weekly level to validate this move. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks,

U.S. equities staged a technical rebound after extreme oversold signals triggered across key indicators. With the S&P 500 attempting to hold a critical weekly level and Invesco QQQ Trust showing historically deep oversold readings, the recent selloff may be approaching exhaustion even as volatility remains elevated. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ As the oversold McClellan Oscillator and the breach of the lower Bollinger Band suggested, price was set for a bounce today. The index now must sustain itself above the key weekly level to validate this move. 2. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ The Money Flow Index is as oversold as the 2023 correction and the 2025 bottom. It sits BELOW COVID crash levels, exceeded only by the 2022

U.S. equities are flashing short-term oversold signals across multiple indices, with extreme readings in breadth indicators and Bollinger Band breakdowns suggesting a potential technical bounce after the recent selloff. 📉📊 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ The McClellan Oscillator has reached levels where price action begins to form a bounce, including the August 2024 Carry Trade selloff and the 2025 Tariff Crash. 2. $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ Price printed an isolated candle below the lower Bollinger Band. The high daily volume validates the significance of this formation. Sell-offs rarely move in a straight line; a formation like this often marks a local bottom or a "climax" event. 3.

Geopolitical events present a unique pricing challenge for financial markets. Unlike earnings reports or Federal Reserve decisions that arrive on a known schedule, geopolitical shocks are by nature unpredictable, rare, and of uncertain duration. This combination of characteristics creates a specific market dynamic: sharp initial reaction driven by uncertainty, followed by rapid reassessment as facts emerge. There are three primary channels through which geopolitical shocks affect asset prices: 1) disruption to cross-border trade and investment, 2) contagion through financial linkages, and 3) elevated macroeconomic uncertainty. Of these three, uncertainty has the longest-lasting effect because it cannot be resolved until the event either escalates or de-escalates. Markets do not price the e

U.S. equities closed a turbulent week. $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ posted a -1.3% weekly loss, outperforming the other major indices despite of the decline. $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ declined -3.0% for the week, the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ lost -2.0%, and the small-cap $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ fell -4.0%, reflecting the reduced risk appetite that defined the period. Our Support and Resistance levels continue to frame the price action, with the SPX oscillating between the anticipated Central Weekly Level (CWL) of $6,882 and the extended bearish target of 6,745. We see the same pattern in IWM which topped slightly above its CWL of $261.0 b

$Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF(MAGS)$ The magnificent seven are showing signs of a sustainable bullish reversal. The price bounced from the lower Bollinger band and the oscillator is curling up from oversold zone. In parallel, tech $Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLK)$ closed green while defensives declined today. Reversal Rotation. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Over the last two weeks, I published two special editions on Sector Rotation. Rather than chasing the "Great Rotation," I anticipated that the trend was already overextended. Tech is now reclaiming relative strength while defensives are under pressure…as expected. $Invesco

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ As anticipated, the price action suggested a bounce; after a -2% selloff, the index is returning to neutral territory for the week. However, indecision in the last 4H suggests caution. The question remains: is this a sustainable reversal or merely a relief rally? Moves do not happen in a straight line, and the price action today suggest a lot of caution for bears. Be careful being too bearish right now, risk management is key. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. 🎉Cash Boost Account Now Supports 35,000+ Stocks & ETFs – Greater

This week’s market scan shows $META poised for a possible bear trap bounce, $AAPL signaling bearish continuation after oscillator reversal, and $PLTR displaying bullish momentum with breakout potential toward 150. 1. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ Each Weekly Compass provides a full market assessment covering indices, volatility, breadth, and a set of high-probability setups. While geopolitical tension kept META off the official list for now, it is my "9th setup" if we see a bear trap and bounce this week (Link Bio) 2. $Apple(AAPL)$ Indecisive price action has preceded pullbacks, and an oscillator crossover has signaled a bearish reversal. While price found support at the ascending diagonal, Friday's candle

$Dow Jones(.DJI)$ has printed a monthly gravestone, a rare occurrence on this long-term timeframe. With the RSI above 70, there are two conditions that have preceded significant corrections. Historically, the Dow Jones has signaled major reversals under two specific conditions: The monthly RSI exceeds 70 (as seen in 2018, 2022, and 2025). A monthly reversal candle is formed (as seen in 2020). Currently, both signals are flashing: the RSI has hit 71, and a gravestone doji has formed. This indicates that the price has erased its monthly gains, signaling a significant loss of bullish momentum. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well

U.S. equities concluded a volatile week and month on a downbeat note, with major indices finishing in the red on Friday. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ fell 0.9% in February to close at 6,878.9, slipping below its 50-day moving average. $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ shed 2.3% for the month, while the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ finished flat, wiping out its previous rally. Small-caps followed suit, as $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ erased its monthly gains to close unchanged. Sentiment was weighed down by hotter-than-expected PPI data, which pushed out Fed rate-cut expectations and reignited fears over AI infrastructure disruption. Technology and financi

1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Since only Tech sold off while $Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLF)$ rallied and other sectors held firm, bullish potential remains. With MACD and Stochastic crossing bullishly, the outlook stays positive as long as $6,910 holds and the diagonal is finally breached. SPX - 15 minutes chart: Key moment to see if this time is different, and the gap is filled the next day. 2. $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ IWM closed in the green while the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ suffered losses. 837M in outflows in small and micro caps last week MACD crosso

Sector rotation occurs because different industries respond uniquely to interest rates, inflation, and consumer demand. The Early Stage: Falling interest rates typically breathe life into the Information Technology and Real Estate sectors as borrowing costs drop. The Late Stage: As an economy overheats and inflation stays “sticky” (as forecasted for much of 2026), investors rotate into Energy and Materials to hedge against rising prices. Defensive Shifting: When growth concerns arise, “smart money” often flocks to Consumer Staples and Health Care, which are sectors that provide essential services regardless of economic health. For new investors: the Momentum Map visualizes where each sector stands regarding its recent momentum and relative strength against the S&P 500