Reward 500 Tiger-coinsJanuary trading has come to a close! While the three major U.S. indices finished in the green, the "Precious Metals Massacre" and the major leadership change at the Fed made this a highly unusual start to the year.
January Recap: S&P's "January Barometer," but Tech is Lagging?
In terms of historical win rates, January lived up to its reputation:
$S&P 500(.SPX)$: Up 1.37% (consistent with its 62% win rate since 1928).
$Dow Jones(.DJI)$ : The strongest performer, gaining 1.73% as value and blue-chip stocks took the lead.
$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$: Up only 0.95%, looking noticeably sluggish.
Despite the "January Barometer" flashing a green light for the year, the underperformance of tech stocks suggests that capital is being re-priced. The market is searching for a new narrative.
Month-End Earthquake: Gold/Silver Collapse, Bitcoin Stumbles
The end of January was nothing short of breathtaking. The primary trigger: Trump’s plan to nominate Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve.
Black Friday for Precious Metals:
$XAG/USD(XAGUSD.FOREX)$ : Plunged 26%, its largest historical drop! $SLV trading volume exploded past $40 billion.
$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ : Dropped 9%, suffering its worst single-day performance in over a decade.
A surging Dollar fueled by expectations for the new Fed Chair, combined with a market that was overstretched after weeks of endless rallying. The bubble popped instantly.
Crypto: $Bitcoin(BTC.USD.CC)$ fell to $74,600 (a 10-month low), while Ethereum retreated to levels not seen since June 2025. The anticipation of tighter liquidity is hitting risk assets hard.
February Outlook: Can the "January Effect" Hold?
1. Will "As Goes January, So Goes the Year" ring true?
Historically, a positive January suggests a bullish year. However, don't forget: After last year's January rise, the market saw three consecutive months of decline. Given the complexity of geopolitical shifts and the Fed's leadership transition, February may be a period of digestion for the "Warsh Shockwave."
2. Gold & Silver: Buying Opportunity or Falling Knife? The long-term case for gold (as a hedge and inflation shield) hasn't vanished, but the short-term technicals are severely damaged.
Let's Discuss:
Do you think this deep dive in Gold/Silver is a "Golden Pit" buying opportunity?
With tech underperforming, are you trimming your exposure to Big Tech in February?
Will 2026 follow the "January Barometer" to a bullish finish, or are we in for a repeat of last year's Q1 pullback?
How do you review earnings performance in Jan.?
Drop your thoughts in the comments below, and let's get ready for February!
Comments
That is why deep dives in Gold and Silver often feel like a Golden Pit - terrifying on the way down but historically rewarding for anyone brave enough to climb in with a shovel and a long term view.
If you believe in Gold and Silver as insurance against human overreaction , then January's drop looks less like danger and more like a big sale.
I am ready to climb in with my shovel and start digging in to find my Golden Pit. My future self will thank me.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @CaptainTiger @TigerClub
The collapse in gold & silver looked like a crowded trade unwinding fast, driven by a stronger dollar & expectations of a more hawkish Fed under Kevin Warsh. Crypto selling alongside precious metals reinforces the same message: liquidity assumptions are changing, speculative assets are feeling the pressure first.
Heading into February, I’m staying cautious. A positive January is historically supportive, but it doesn’t rule out near-term digestion, especially with a Fed leadership shift. I’m not rushing to buy gold or silver yet & on tech I’m staying selective — trimming excess exposure & focusing on earnings quality rather than chasing the bounce.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub
The most telling stat of January isn't the Gold crash, but the Nasdaq's sluggishness (+0.95%). When the market leaders (Big Tech) start lagging behind blue chips ($Dow Jones(.DJI)$ ), it’s usually a signal that the "easy money" phase is over.The "Warsh Shockwave" is a wake-up call that liquidity conditions might tighten faster than priced in. This explains the synchronized sell-off in zero-yield assets like Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin ($74k).Feb Outlook: I suspect February will be a choppy month of digestion. I am trimming high-beta tech exposure and holding more cash to see if the "January Effect" was a false signal. Safety first! 🛡️$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$
密码：$比特币(BTC.USD.CC)$跌到$74,600（10个月低点），而以太币则回落至2025年6月以来的最高水平。流动性收紧的预期正在重创风险资产。
The deep dive in Gold/Silver may offer a 'Golden Pit' buying opportunity for inflation, but a stronger dollar under a hawkish Fed could push prices lower before leveling
With tech underperforming, trimming exposure may be wise, notably given slowing growth and rising rates; however, AI and infrastructure prospects imply rebalancing to mitigate risk while holding resilient stocks
The January Barometer signals early volatility, as the "Warsh Shock" and interest rates will likely dictate a recovery or Q1 pullback
January earnings offer key economic insights; strong outlooks reflect resilience, while weak results trigger broader struggles
February markets depend on Fed chair, earnings, and rates; flexibility is key as tougher conditions may require scaling back even as selective entries emerge。。。