Reward 500 Tiger-coinsJanuary trading has come to a close! While the three major U.S. indices finished in the green, the "Precious Metals Massacre" and the major leadership change at the Fed made this a highly unusual start to the year.
January Recap: S&P's "January Barometer," but Tech is Lagging?
In terms of historical win rates, January lived up to its reputation:
$S&P 500(.SPX)$: Up 1.37% (consistent with its 62% win rate since 1928).
$Dow Jones(.DJI)$ : The strongest performer, gaining 1.73% as value and blue-chip stocks took the lead.
$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$: Up only 0.95%, looking noticeably sluggish.
Despite the "January Barometer" flashing a green light for the year, the underperformance of tech stocks suggests that capital is being re-priced. The market is searching for a new narrative.
Month-End Earthquake: Gold/Silver Collapse, Bitcoin Stumbles
The end of January was nothing short of breathtaking. The primary trigger: Trump’s plan to nominate Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve.
Black Friday for Precious Metals:
$XAG/USD(XAGUSD.FOREX)$ : Plunged 26%, its largest historical drop! $SLV trading volume exploded past $40 billion.
$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ : Dropped 9%, suffering its worst single-day performance in over a decade.
A surging Dollar fueled by expectations for the new Fed Chair, combined with a market that was overstretched after weeks of endless rallying. The bubble popped instantly.
Crypto: $Bitcoin(BTC.USD.CC)$ fell to $74,600 (a 10-month low), while Ethereum retreated to levels not seen since June 2025. The anticipation of tighter liquidity is hitting risk assets hard.
February Outlook: Can the "January Effect" Hold?
1. Will "As Goes January, So Goes the Year" ring true?
Historically, a positive January suggests a bullish year. However, don't forget: After last year's January rise, the market saw three consecutive months of decline. Given the complexity of geopolitical shifts and the Fed's leadership transition, February may be a period of digestion for the "Warsh Shockwave."
2. Gold & Silver: Buying Opportunity or Falling Knife? The long-term case for gold (as a hedge and inflation shield) hasn't vanished, but the short-term technicals are severely damaged.
Let's Discuss:
Do you think this deep dive in Gold/Silver is a "Golden Pit" buying opportunity?
With tech underperforming, are you trimming your exposure to Big Tech in February?
Will 2026 follow the "January Barometer" to a bullish finish, or are we in for a repeat of last year's Q1 pullback?
How do you review earnings performance in Jan.?
Drop your thoughts in the comments below, and let's get ready for February!
Comments
That is why deep dives in Gold and Silver often feel like a Golden Pit - terrifying on the way down but historically rewarding for anyone brave enough to climb in with a shovel and a long term view.
If you believe in Gold and Silver as insurance against human overreaction , then January's drop looks less like danger and more like a big sale.
I am ready to climb in with my shovel and start digging in to find my Golden Pit. My future self will thank me.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @CaptainTiger @TigerClub
The collapse in gold & silver looked like a crowded trade unwinding fast, driven by a stronger dollar & expectations of a more hawkish Fed under Kevin Warsh. Crypto selling alongside precious metals reinforces the same message: liquidity assumptions are changing, speculative assets are feeling the pressure first.
Heading into February, I’m staying cautious. A positive January is historically supportive, but it doesn’t rule out near-term digestion, especially with a Fed leadership shift. I’m not rushing to buy gold or silver yet & on tech I’m staying selective — trimming excess exposure & focusing on earnings quality rather than chasing the bounce.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub
1月份最能說明問題的統計數據不是黃金崩盤，而是納斯達克的低迷（+0.95%）。當市場領導者（大型科技公司）開始落後於藍籌股時（$道瓊斯(.DJI)$ ），這通常是“輕鬆賺錢”階段結束的信號。“沃什衝擊波”是一個喚醒看漲期權，流動性狀況收緊的速度可能會快於定價。這解釋了黃金、白銀和比特幣（7.4萬美元）等零收益資產的同步拋售。二月展望：我懷疑二月將是一個波動的消化月。我正在削減高貝塔科技股敞口並持有更多現金，看看“一月效應”是否是一個錯誤信號。安全第一！🛡️$美國超微公司(AMD)$
密码：$比特币(BTC.USD.CC)$跌到$74,600（10个月低点），而以太币则回落至2025年6月以来的最高水平。流动性收紧的预期正在重创风险资产。
Check them in the history - "community distribution"