Reward 500 Tiger-coinsSoftware Stocks Crash as Walmart Hits $1 Trillion! Is this the biggest market shift of 2025?
The market is showing a brutal split right now:
Software stocks are getting crushed. While $Wal-Mart(WMT)$ just crossed a $1 trillion market cap, up ~14% YTD — outperforming Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon
1) What happened: software names got hit hard
One of the biggest triggers behind this selloff is the market repricing how fast AI could disrupt parts of the software stack.
After new developments around Anthropic’s Claude (and the broader narrative that AI tools can increasingly replace knowledge-work workflows), investors started questioning:
How much of “software value” is truly defensible anymore? Damage report (single day): ~$285B market cap wiped out
Some notable moves:
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$AppLovin Corporation(APP)$ down ~14%
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$Unity Software Inc.(U)$ & $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ -5%, and 10%
The market fear is simple:
If AI can do parts of what software does, then what’s the moat?
2) Jensen Huang’s response: AI won’t replace software
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang pushed back on the most extreme version of the narrative, calling the “AI replaces software” idea illogical.
His point is practical: AI is more like an efficiency layer, not a full replacement. You don’t rebuild Excel from scratch just because AI exists. But the key is:
Only the strongest software categories will survive as “must-haves.”
3) Why Walmart is winning: physical assets + AI = real operational leverage
So why is Walmart suddenly the winner in this narrative?
Not because it’s an “AI company” — but because it owns what AI can’t replace:
physical assets, supply chain scale, and logistics networks.
Some market highlights being discussed:
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~60% of warehouses automated with AI
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~90% of restocking AI-driven
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Partnerships with Google & OpenAI
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Conversion rates reportedly up ~22%
4) “Software death loop”: JPMorgan views BDCs are becoming the credit risk hotspot.
This selloff becomes more dangerous when it shifts from equity panic to a broader credit stress narrative.
JPMorgan’s take is that the selloff in software — and other industries perceived to be exposed to AI disruption — has shown little sign of easing.
More importantly, JPMorgan warns the risk is increasingly migrating from stocks into credit markets, with Business Development Companies (BDCs) turning into a key pressure point.
According to JPMorgan, BDCs hold roughly: $70B in software-related loans, around 16% of their total portfolios
After the sharp software drawdown, these loan-linked assets may become mispriced or “dislocated.”
5) If the paradigm is shifting… how to position?
Discussion: what’s your take? 👇
So what’s really happening here?
Is this just a short-term panic… or a real regime shift?
Do you think this is:
A) the beginning of the end for software stocks, or
B) an overreaction that creates a buying opportunity?
Leave your comments to win tiger coins!
Comments
$Wal-Mart(WMT)$ hitting $1 trillion makes sense because AI is amplifying businesses with physical scale and operational complexity. AI turns Walmart’s logistics and supply chain into real profit leverage, while many software companies now have to prove they’re essential, not optional.
So I lean toward B: this is an overreaction, not the end of software. But the $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ JPMorgan credit warning matters — if stress spreads into BDCs, volatility isn’t done. The opportunity is selective: only software with mission-critical roles and pricing power deserves to bounce.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub
No Agentic AI can replicate the sheer physical grit of 5,000 stores or the complex machinery of global fulfilment.
By using its massive footprint into high velocity AI hubs & a high margin advertising juggernaut, Walmart has successfully shed its old retail skin to become a tech powered titan.
Walmart isn't just selling groceries anymore. It is selling an automated hyper efficient future where logistics is the new software.
While the SaaS sector may tremble, Walmart's trillion dollar milestone is an achievement that the late great Sam Walton, Founder would be proud of. From a single variety store in 1962 to today's crowning success, this achievement remains rooted in his original Every Day Low Price philosophy.
@Tiger_comments @Tiger_SG @CaptainTiger @TigerClub @TigerStars
Agree with Jensen Huang that AI is more like an efficiency layer than a full replacement. Just like we didn’t rebuild Excel from scratch when new technology appeared, AI will be added into existing tools to make them faster and easier to use. The software that will survive are the ones people already depend on every day, such as spreadsheets, design tools, and business systems, because they are deeply built into how work gets done. Weaker or nice-to-have apps may disappear, since AI can easily copy what they do. In the end, AI doesn’t replace everything, it strengthens the most important software and quietly pushes out the rest.