Reward 500 Tiger-coinsThis week, the U.S. stock market has been nothing short of gruesome—a literal bloodbath and a frantic stampede.
The Fear & Greed Index has now officially retreated into "Fear" territory.
After a massive run-up, capital is fleeing the sector. $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ plunged 15.95%, $Western Digital(WDC)$ dropped 7%, and $Micron Technology(MU)$ fell over 9%.
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ fell over 3%, marking a four-day losing streak with a cumulative loss of nearly 10%. AppLovin tanked over 16%, leading a broader retreat in AI application software.
$Bitcoin(BTC.USD.CC)$ slid below $70,000, down over 6% intraday. Polymarket shows an 82% probability of BTC falling below $65,000 this year, with odds of a drop under $55,000 rising to nearly 60%.
Semiconductors & AI: Earnings Convergence of Bad News
The tech sector is dragging the entire market down as the AI hype meets a harsh reality check:
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$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ : Issued Q1 revenue guidance of $9.8 billion, missing the optimistic whisper numbers of $100B+. The stock plummeted 17.3%, its largest single-day drop since 2017, paralyzing the entire sector.
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$Alphabet(GOOG)$ : Market jitters intensified following Wednesday’s disclosure of its capital expenditure plans. The company expects capex to reach a staggering $175B–$185B this year, nearly doubling previous levels.
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$Qualcomm(QCOM)$ : The world’s largest smartphone processor maker gave a weak forecast for the current quarter, fueling fears that rising memory chip prices are further suppressing smartphone demand. Shares fell nearly 10%.
Precious Metals: The Rollercoaster Continues
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$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ : Slumped again, briefly losing the $4,800 mark and erasing the gains from Tuesday (+6.13%) and Wednesday (+0.36%).
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$XAG/USD(XAGUSD.FOREX)$: Followed suit with a 16% crash, wiping out its mid-week rally. This volatility stems from last Friday’s carnage where Gold fell 9% and Silver imploded by 26%.
The Silver Lining: Consumer Strength
While tech burns, "Main Street" remains resilient. Walmart rose 2%, pushing its market cap past $1 trillion, and PepsiCo climbed 4% on strong earnings. Capital is clearly rotating out of high-growth tech and into defensive sectors.
Share Your Thoughts!
How do you view the sell-off?
A️. The AI & Semi "Valuation Purge": This is a healthy reset; opportunities are brewing.
B. A Structural Trend Reversal: It’s the start of a longer decline; it is far too early to buy the dip.
C️. Defensive Pivot: Avoid tech entirely; stick to Consumer Staples and Defensive sectors.
Comments
也就是说，这并不是一个盲目逢低买入的环境。收入差距正在扩大，资本密集度的上升——尤其是在人工智能基础设施方面——已成为一个真正的担忧。选择性现在变得更加重要，资产负债表实力、现金流和货币化可见性将真正的赢家与炒作区分开来。
总的来说，我倾向于️⃣：机会正在形成的健康重置，但仅限于耐心资本。在增加敞口之前，我正在等待更明确的企稳迹象和盈利确认。尽管痛苦，但这种洗牌往往会为下一步可持续发展奠定基础。
@TigerStars @Tiger_comments @TigerClub
AI & Semiconductors have been priced for perfection for months. Software multiples stretched. Anything with AI automation got a premium.
Anthropic drops new legal work flow automation tools. Suddenly the market realises that AI isn't just enabling software. It is competing with it. That's enough to trigger a sentiment shock, not a structural trend reversal.
This is what a healthy reset looks like: Excess froth gets burnt off. Momentum traders exit. Funds rebalance. Strong companies get cheaper. Weak companies get exposed.
Beneath the chaos, opportunities are quietly starting to brew.
Why not B: Structural Trend Reversal? We are not seeing earnings collapsing. Demand isn't evaporating. Cloud, Cybersecurity & enterprise spend remain intact.
Why not C: Defensive Pivot. Tech is still the engine of global growth.
@Tiger_comments
I won’t pivot into defensive and consumer staples yet. Typically, the growth from these sectors are limited. They are steady companies which grow slowly and sometimes offer good dividends but I don’t invest in the US stocks for these. Given my investment horizon, i definitely prefer to put my money into stocks with high growth potential, so I would be looking to add at good prices.