Mag 7 Earnings Scoreboard: Was Microsoft Crash Overreaction?

Tiger_comments
01-30
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Four of the Mag 7 have reported earnings this week, and the divergence is getting very real.

Meta surged +10% against the tape. Microsoft wiped out $357B in market cap, the 2nd-largest single-session value drop in stock market history. Tesla and Apple were underwhelming. Little price reaction.

Let’s break down the scoreboard for these four mega-cap tech giants.

🏆 The Winners

$Apple(AAPL)$: “Ecosystem Dominance at Scale”

Revenue $143.8B, EPS $2.84 — a clean beat across the board.

Why it’s on the winners list: Ultra-high user loyalty powered iPhone revenue +23%. Even more impressive, Greater China revenue flipped sharply higher to +38% YoY, crushing market concerns.

A record 48.2% gross margin proves Apple’s unmatched ability to leverage its supply chain and protect profitability.

$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$: The Ad King’s AI Magic

Revenue $59.9B, with ad revenue growth hitting +23%.

AI is making Meta’s ad targeting insanely efficient. Even with aggressive 2026 capex plans, Meta’s 1Q revenue guidance came in far above consensus — the “re-acceleration” story fully outweighed fears around spending.

💀 The Underperformers

$Microsoft(MSFT)$: Azure “Tiny Slowdown” That Triggered a Bloodbath

Revenue and EPS both beat expectations, but Azure growth slowed to 38%, with next-quarter guidance slipping further to 37%–38%. Two straight quarters of deceleration raised a brutal question: Is AI monetization lagging the pace of GPU buildout?

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ : A Crossroad With an Unclear Narrative

Auto gross margin (ex-credits) rebounded to 17.9%.

Tesla unexpectedly announced a $2B investment into xAI, sparking related-party concerns. Meanwhile, FSD subscription penetration is still far from Musk’s target, leaving the “2026 margin recovery” story unfinished.

Why Did Microsoft Crash? Was It a “Wrongful Kill”?

In the market’s eyes, owning Microsoft means buying growth acceleration.

So when Azure guidance slid from ~40% to ~37%, investors didn’t see “still growing.” They saw a sign that growth could be peaking.

That kind of marginal slowdown is exactly what triggers a high-multiple reset.

Cash Flow Tells the Real Story: Operating cash flow came in strong at $35.8B. But free cash flow dropped to only $5.9B, sharply down QoQ. Next-quarter gross margin guidance also dropped to 65%, adding more pressure.

The “Boosted” Profit From OpenAI: Microsoft’s net income this quarter included $7.6B of non-operating gains tied to its OpenAI investment. If you strip that out, the core operating profit quality looks far less impressive — and the market noticed.

Questions for the community:

  1. Would you buy Microsoft here — yes or no? Is $400 a good “dip-buy” level?

  2. Can Meta still be chased higher after the +10% move?

  3. Apple says memory cost inflation is “not a concern”… so why isn’t the stock moving?

  4. Will Tesla’s long-term narrative actually deliver in 2026 — or keep slipping?

Leave your comments to win tiger coins~

Microsoft -10%! Overreaction? A Buy at $400?
Microsoft sank 10% despite solid fundamentals. Q2 revenue grew 15% YoY in constant currency, beating expectations, with Azure up 38% and Microsoft 365 Commercial rising 14%, driven by steady subscriber and pricing gains. However, ongoing supply-chain constraints capped upside versus buy-side hopes, reviving concerns over near-term AI monetization and delivery capacity.
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Comments

  • Shyon
    01-30
    Shyon
    From my view, Microsoft’s $Microsoft(MSFT)$ drop looks like a valuation reset rather than a broken business. Azure is still growing at a very high level, but the market owned MSFT for acceleration, not deceleration. I’d be cautious but constructive — $400 feels like a reasonable first entry, though I’d scale in slowly rather than go all-in.

    Meta $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ is the clearest winner for me. The +10% move is supported by real ad re-acceleration and visible AI-driven efficiency gains. I wouldn’t chase after a vertical rally, but on consolidation or pullbacks, this still looks like a stock you want to own.

    Apple $Apple(AAPL)$ delivered objectively strong results, yet the stock is flat because expectations were already high and no new growth narrative emerged. Tesla’s $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ long-term AI & autonomy vision remains compelling, but with execution delays & mixed signals, it’s still more promise than proof for now.

    @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub

  • icycrystal
    01-31
    icycrystal

    $Microsoft(MSFT)$ Is $400 a good "dip-buy" level? Wall Street analysts maintain a "Strong Buy" consensus, with an average price target of over $600 for the next 12 months, implying significant upside potential from current levels. The lowest analyst price target is around $450, so while $400 is below that specific floor, the overall sentiment is that the current price is a strong entry point given the long-term forecasts and continued Azure cloud growth.


    $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ Can it still be chased higher? Analysts are extremely bullish, viewing the AI spending not as a risk, but as a major growth catalyst that is already improving ad efficiency and engagement. Price targets have been raised across the board, with some as high as $1,144. The consensus is that the fundamental narrative has shifted, supporting further upside.

  • koolgal
    01-31 05:36
    koolgal
    🌟4 Titans are at a crossroad. Conviction is being tested. Investors are forced to choose whether they trust the story or the noise.

    Microsoft: Would I buy at $400?  Yes.  Its dip isn't about weakness.  It is about investors flinching at its AI Capex & slowing cloud growth. Yet long term AI enterprise engine remains intact.

    $400 is the level where weak hands panic & strong hands accumulate.

    Meta: Can it be chased after a 10% jump?
    Yes. I believe Meta's growth runway is long. I see accelerating revenue, AI driven ad strength & its willingness to spend boldly because the growth is real.

    Apple:  It trades on expectations, not explanations. So even when it says memory cost inflation is manageable, the market hears margins may drop, supply chain is  tight. Growth is capped.

    Tesla: 2026 is the year where promises must become proof.  Robotaxi must scale, not just demo. Optimus must work, not just wave.  Tesla must show execution not just hype.

    @Tiger_comments @TigerClub @TigerStars

  • BTS
    02-01 02:18
    BTS
    The recent Mag 7 earnings have turned the tech sector into a battleground, with high expectations clashing against capital expenditure realities, raising concerns about the AI tax on balance sheets。。。

    Microsoft (MSFT) plunged -12%, sparking debates on whether the crash is an overreaction and $400 is a good “dip-buy” level for long-term entry, with some fearing deeper, unresolved issues

    Meta Platforms (META) surged +10%, leading the market to assess if it is still worth chasing; Apple (AAPL) remains calm on rising memory costs, despite inflation being “not a concern”, its stock barely moved, raising concerns on market saturation; Tesla Motors (TSLA) shifted focus to AI and robotics, leaving investors to weigh if its long-term narrative will deliver in 2026 or slip further

    As mixed signals persist in tech, the coming weeks will be critical to see if prices sustain; volatility is expected to remain high as the market gauges which companies can turn AI spending into long-term growth

  • 1PC
    01-31 23:26
    1PC
    MSFT is still a Good stock, at this level could numble some as an investment [Chuckle].... But I'm out of bullets 😭. @JC888 @Barcode @koolgal @Shernice軒嬣 2000 @Aqa @Shyon @DiAngel
    • koolgal
      Let's ask God of Fortune for some dinaro🥰🥰🥰🌈🌈🌈💰💰💰
  • Cadi Poon
    01-31 21:40
    Cadi Poon
    收入$59.9 B,與廣告收入增長+23%.

    人工智能正在打造Meta的廣告定位效率極高.即使有激進的2026年資本支出計劃,Meta的第一季度收入指引遠高於共識-“再加速”的故事完全超過了圍繞支出的擔憂。

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