After the latest January inflation data was released and hit a new high, the market had new expectations for the Fed's actions. According to the latest Fedwatch data, the probability of FOMC in July has been 50-50. In this week's expectation, although there are some variables, the probability of 50 basis points is obviously superior.Data show that the probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points on June 15th is close to 80%. Although this figure has dropped significantly compared with 98.2% a week ago, as we said before, it is still relatively stable when it exceeds 70%. In contrast, July's data, which also overwhelmingly raised interest rates by 50 basis points a week ago, is now seriously divided. Even the probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points has reached
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Medium-term correction of GOLD may not be completely,Further decline lie ahead
Gold showed signs of a bottom out in the past week, and the integer mark near 1900 provided some buying support.On the news side, it has maintained a stable trend in the near future, and there is no new significant positive or negative news. Referring to indicators such as gold-silver ratio, the medium-term correction may not be completely over at present. After the next round of adjustment, gold will have a chance to enter a new rally.The range of gold-silver ratio is the key to pressure referenceThe price comparison between gold and silver has always been an important reference for considering the overall direction of precious metals: in the relatively weak stage of silver, the probability of gold taking the lead alone is low, and the recovery of silver is one of the overall upward signa
Medium-term correction of GOLD may not be completely,Further decline lie ahead
Credit Suisse fallout upsets Fed rate-hike expectations, GOLD became the biggest winner
Credit Suisse Risk, which exploded the market last week, and was finally solved under the special treatment of regulators. Finally, UBS announced that it would acquire Credit Suisse for 3 billion Swiss francs, which is 40% lower than the latter's market value on Friday. At the same time, the Swiss government covered some losses, the Swiss National Bank gave liquidity assistance of 100 billion Swiss francs, and Credit Suisse bonds with a face value of about 16 billion Swiss francs were completely written down.After the above news, the market returned to a relatively stable situation. According to fedwatch data, the probability of 25 basis points of Fed rate hike this week accounted for 70%. If this data is maintained, the final result may be the same. This FOMC's path of fol
Credit Suisse fallout upsets Fed rate-hike expectations, GOLD became the biggest winner
The Fed will make a big move this week ,How will gold and oil change?
The Fed will make a big move this week ,How will gold and oil change?
U.S. Dollar Index hits fresh 2-year high, What can we expect from it?
Last week, the US dollar index briefly hit the 100 integer mark, which broke through 100 again since May 2020. For a long time, the dollar has behaved closer to commodities-showing a trend of mean reversion, fluctuating around the median,When the price is too low, it will rise, and when the price is too high, it will fall. In terms of current prices, there is still 10-20% room from the long-term median. Too long ago, the trend of the US dollar is linked to too many political and economic topics, and as a trader entering the market in the millennium, he can't be perfectly fastidious. However, after the financial crisis in 2007/08, there is still a very clear logic line supporting the market of the US dollar. On the whole, the leading position of the US economy compared with other econo
U.S. Dollar Index hits fresh 2-year high, What can we expect from it?
Be careful, the trend of the US stock market may have changed
There were some problems in the analysis of crude oil last week. Although there is nothing wrong with the answer that oil prices are at a new high,However, the performance of market risk appetite is obviously slapping in the face. In the absence of obvious bad news and relatively stable oil prices, S&P (US stocks) went out of the broken market. This means that the wind direction of the whole market has changed. Admit your mistakes and leave the market as soon as possible or look for turning opportunities, which is what real traders should consider. The performance of S&P (US stock market) last week was obviously destructive. First, the market fell through the low of 4493 built by Omicron at that time.At the same time, on the monthly graph, we have already seen the pattern of short
Be careful, the trend of the US stock market may have changed
July Fed Meeting Preview: Another Big Rate Hike is on the way! Gold is likely to hit the new low!
The Fed's interest rate resolution at the end of July is undoubtedly the highlight of this month. After the CPI data hit a high level again, the market once priced in a 100 basis point interest rate hike. However, with the digestion of time, we can see that the probability of 75 basis points has returned to the dominant position at the beginning of this week. This may mean that the final situation of this resolution will change in the next nine days. The only thing to keep in mind is that the result can be basically set with a probability of more than 70%.Inflation looks at oil price, risk assets also look at oil priceCrude oil bottomed out again last week, sticking to the 92/93 area for two consecutive weeks. Biden has specifically said after the CPI data that the fall in gasoline pr
July Fed Meeting Preview: Another Big Rate Hike is on the way! Gold is likely to hit the new low!
The feeling of 07/08 is back: 2000 for gold, 140 for crude oil？
The major gap in the jump at the beginning of last week has not been covered, which confirms the further strengthening of the recent trend. Gold began to rise to the 2000 mark, while crude oil continued to triumph and completely decoupled from the US stock index. The last time the market was so crazy, it had to go back to the financial crisis in 2007/08. However, this geopolitical crisis may be even more violent than at that time. Keep away from crude oil In the live broadcast in the middle of last week, we compared the long-term charts of US oil and S&P, and a similar situation appeared on the eve of Lehman moment-US stocks had begun to peak and fall back and be greatly revised, and oil prices continued to surge for some time before a cliff-like crash occurred.Based on this, consideri
The feeling of 07/08 is back: 2000 for gold, 140 for crude oil？
Bad news: The dollar has become the only safe haven
Over the past month or so, although the selling of the market has not appeared in the state of crazy decline, the continuous small ups and downs have gradually exhausted the patience of bulls. There is no new topic about the bright negative, but the status quo that only the US dollar has a safe haven suggests that there may be new bad news in the second quarter. In the live broadcast in April, we once said that the rise of the US dollar is an inevitable strategy. A stronger dollar is one of the best weapons in every round when the United States reaps other countries or the world. This year's situation is even more obvious. Under the pressure of inflation, the more valuable the local currency is, the more the relative inflation risk can be passed on to other countries. Facts have also prove
Bad news: The dollar has become the only safe haven
You should be more careful, GOLD price keeps trading at high levels and that is not a good sign
In the early hours of Thursday, the Federal Reserve decided to continue the moderate rate hike as expected by the market. At the same time, it released the signal that this may be the last rate hike in this round. The rate hike range of 25 basis points was fully in line with the market's previous expectations. After the press conference, Powell said that in principle, there is no need for rate hike to reach too high a level, but it is "inappropriate" to cut interest rates now, and the US economy is not expected to decline. After the news, the risky assets did not rise when their boots landed. On the contrary, gold unexpectedly jumped in the day, only one step away from the historical high point.Gold is the highest in 2085 after jumping, and the previous historical high of 2089 is just arou
You should be more careful, GOLD price keeps trading at high levels and that is not a good sign
Stay Cautious: Watch More, Trade Less Until Market Mania Fades
Over the National Day holiday week, markets shifted again: silver, the core sentiment gauge, led gold to fresh highs, and Bitcoin reclaimed the top spot in crypto with a new all-time high. The market is effectively immune to anything that looks negative, so fighting the prevailing mania is inadvisable until it clearly fades. That said, once leading indicators flash a definitive reversal, it could still mark a major inflection worth close attention.Among assets, silver remains the representative bellwether tracked over the past month. Silver futures set a new high this week, but with two trading days left, the chart has printed a high-level doji. While not a definitive top, it cannot be dismissed outright. Silver making highs has often coincided with rapid risk-off turns across risk assets,
Stay Cautious: Watch More, Trade Less Until Market Mania Fades
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