After the latest January inflation data was released and hit a new high, the market had new expectations for the Fed's actions. According to the latest Fedwatch data, the probability of FOMC in July has been 50-50. In this week's expectation, although there are some variables, the probability of 50 basis points is obviously superior.Data show that the probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points on June 15th is close to 80%. Although this figure has dropped significantly compared with 98.2% a week ago, as we said before, it is still relatively stable when it exceeds 70%. In contrast, July's data, which also overwhelmingly raised interest rates by 50 basis points a week ago, is now seriously divided. Even the probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points has reached
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Medium-term correction of GOLD may not be completely,Further decline lie ahead
Gold showed signs of a bottom out in the past week, and the integer mark near 1900 provided some buying support.On the news side, it has maintained a stable trend in the near future, and there is no new significant positive or negative news. Referring to indicators such as gold-silver ratio, the medium-term correction may not be completely over at present. After the next round of adjustment, gold will have a chance to enter a new rally.The range of gold-silver ratio is the key to pressure referenceThe price comparison between gold and silver has always been an important reference for considering the overall direction of precious metals: in the relatively weak stage of silver, the probability of gold taking the lead alone is low, and the recovery of silver is one of the overall upward signa
Medium-term correction of GOLD may not be completely,Further decline lie ahead
Credit Suisse fallout upsets Fed rate-hike expectations, GOLD became the biggest winner
Credit Suisse Risk, which exploded the market last week, and was finally solved under the special treatment of regulators. Finally, UBS announced that it would acquire Credit Suisse for 3 billion Swiss francs, which is 40% lower than the latter's market value on Friday. At the same time, the Swiss government covered some losses, the Swiss National Bank gave liquidity assistance of 100 billion Swiss francs, and Credit Suisse bonds with a face value of about 16 billion Swiss francs were completely written down.After the above news, the market returned to a relatively stable situation. According to fedwatch data, the probability of 25 basis points of Fed rate hike this week accounted for 70%. If this data is maintained, the final result may be the same. This FOMC's path of fol
Credit Suisse fallout upsets Fed rate-hike expectations, GOLD became the biggest winner
The Fed will make a big move this week ,How will gold and oil change?
The Fed will make a big move this week ,How will gold and oil change?
U.S. Dollar Index hits fresh 2-year high, What can we expect from it?
Last week, the US dollar index briefly hit the 100 integer mark, which broke through 100 again since May 2020. For a long time, the dollar has behaved closer to commodities-showing a trend of mean reversion, fluctuating around the median,When the price is too low, it will rise, and when the price is too high, it will fall. In terms of current prices, there is still 10-20% room from the long-term median. Too long ago, the trend of the US dollar is linked to too many political and economic topics, and as a trader entering the market in the millennium, he can't be perfectly fastidious. However, after the financial crisis in 2007/08, there is still a very clear logic line supporting the market of the US dollar. On the whole, the leading position of the US economy compared with other econo
U.S. Dollar Index hits fresh 2-year high, What can we expect from it?
Be careful, the trend of the US stock market may have changed
There were some problems in the analysis of crude oil last week. Although there is nothing wrong with the answer that oil prices are at a new high,However, the performance of market risk appetite is obviously slapping in the face. In the absence of obvious bad news and relatively stable oil prices, S&P (US stocks) went out of the broken market. This means that the wind direction of the whole market has changed. Admit your mistakes and leave the market as soon as possible or look for turning opportunities, which is what real traders should consider. The performance of S&P (US stock market) last week was obviously destructive. First, the market fell through the low of 4493 built by Omicron at that time.At the same time, on the monthly graph, we have already seen the pattern of short
Be careful, the trend of the US stock market may have changed
July Fed Meeting Preview: Another Big Rate Hike is on the way! Gold is likely to hit the new low!
The Fed's interest rate resolution at the end of July is undoubtedly the highlight of this month. After the CPI data hit a high level again, the market once priced in a 100 basis point interest rate hike. However, with the digestion of time, we can see that the probability of 75 basis points has returned to the dominant position at the beginning of this week. This may mean that the final situation of this resolution will change in the next nine days. The only thing to keep in mind is that the result can be basically set with a probability of more than 70%.Inflation looks at oil price, risk assets also look at oil priceCrude oil bottomed out again last week, sticking to the 92/93 area for two consecutive weeks. Biden has specifically said after the CPI data that the fall in gasoline pr
July Fed Meeting Preview: Another Big Rate Hike is on the way! Gold is likely to hit the new low!
The feeling of 07/08 is back: 2000 for gold, 140 for crude oil？
The major gap in the jump at the beginning of last week has not been covered, which confirms the further strengthening of the recent trend. Gold began to rise to the 2000 mark, while crude oil continued to triumph and completely decoupled from the US stock index. The last time the market was so crazy, it had to go back to the financial crisis in 2007/08. However, this geopolitical crisis may be even more violent than at that time. Keep away from crude oil In the live broadcast in the middle of last week, we compared the long-term charts of US oil and S&P, and a similar situation appeared on the eve of Lehman moment-US stocks had begun to peak and fall back and be greatly revised, and oil prices continued to surge for some time before a cliff-like crash occurred.Based on this, consideri
The feeling of 07/08 is back: 2000 for gold, 140 for crude oil？
Bad news: The dollar has become the only safe haven
Over the past month or so, although the selling of the market has not appeared in the state of crazy decline, the continuous small ups and downs have gradually exhausted the patience of bulls. There is no new topic about the bright negative, but the status quo that only the US dollar has a safe haven suggests that there may be new bad news in the second quarter. In the live broadcast in April, we once said that the rise of the US dollar is an inevitable strategy. A stronger dollar is one of the best weapons in every round when the United States reaps other countries or the world. This year's situation is even more obvious. Under the pressure of inflation, the more valuable the local currency is, the more the relative inflation risk can be passed on to other countries. Facts have also prove
Bad news: The dollar has become the only safe haven
You should be more careful, GOLD price keeps trading at high levels and that is not a good sign
In the early hours of Thursday, the Federal Reserve decided to continue the moderate rate hike as expected by the market. At the same time, it released the signal that this may be the last rate hike in this round. The rate hike range of 25 basis points was fully in line with the market's previous expectations. After the press conference, Powell said that in principle, there is no need for rate hike to reach too high a level, but it is "inappropriate" to cut interest rates now, and the US economy is not expected to decline. After the news, the risky assets did not rise when their boots landed. On the contrary, gold unexpectedly jumped in the day, only one step away from the historical high point.Gold is the highest in 2085 after jumping, and the previous historical high of 2089 is just arou
You should be more careful, GOLD price keeps trading at high levels and that is not a good sign
Is now the best time to invest in gold?
There was no accident in the Federal Reserve in March, and the rate hike of 25 basis points fully met market expectations. Although some words in the statement were deleted and added, the feedback from the whole market seemed calm. After the short-term banking crisis faded, the main line of volatility returned to most assets. If the trend cannot continue and be maintained, choose high or low to leave the market may be the best choice.Gold is a popular variety at present,In the past month, the increase has reached $2000. The notion of buying gold in troubled times is deeply rooted, and the dollar itself is troubled by the prospect of interest rates, so the demand for safe haven has completely poured into the gold market.However, just as the reasons why we didn't look short on gold in early
Is now the best time to invest in gold?
Crude oil jumped sharply on Monday. Where will oil prices go in the future?
On Monday, the crude oil market fluctuated obviously, and the oil price jumped sharply. Therefore, many oil-producing countries including Saudi Arabia collectively announced voluntary production reduction until the end of the year. Whether crude oil enters a new trend or not has important reference value for the prospect of the whole market.In fact, before the weekend news came out, crude oil had rebounded for two consecutive trading days. After the jump, up to now, the price range center since the end of last year is still suppressing the rebound. In other words, although the rebound is very strong and fierce, it still belongs to the standard break-anti-pumping market. Whether it can get out of the range or even return to the high level in November last year will determine the medium-term
Crude oil jumped sharply on Monday. Where will oil prices go in the future?
Will the short-term trend change after the Fed "rescues the market"?
Last weekend's market nervousness eased at the beginning of this week. The Federal Reserve's "bailout" action played a role in stabilizing the morale of the army, and risky assets opened higher. With the expectation of raising interest rates weakening, are assets such as short-term US dollars facing trend changes?On the news front, the Federal Reserve announced earlier that it would launch an emergency financing tool called Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), which will provide loans for up to one year to banks that mortgage US Treasury bonds, institutional debt, mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and other qualified assets.The facility would allow banks to obtain loans from the Fed for up to a year by mortgaging Treasuries, mortgage-backed bonds and other debt as collateral. What if the bank
Will the short-term trend change after the Fed "rescues the market"?
Japanese Yen Firms Ahead of Powell and BoJ as US Dollar Pauses. Where to for USD/JPY?
The dollar index, which rebounded continuously, finally suffered retracement and correction last week, and several yin and yang trends showed that the current level of long and short differences began to increase. It is worth noting that the performance of the Japanese yen seems to show signs of leading the foreign exchange market in the near future-the US dollar is under pressure after the Japanese yen rebounds, while the US dollar benefits during the Japanese yen's decline. As the yen approaches the daily price of the previous upward adjustment of the Japanese bond yield curve, the direction choice of the yen is expected to be crucial.For the convenience of comparison, the trend charts of US dollar index (orange) and US dollar/Japanese yen (instead of 6J Japanese yen futures) are special
Japanese Yen Firms Ahead of Powell and BoJ as US Dollar Pauses. Where to for USD/JPY?
Beware of the oil！If oil continues to climb Recently，It may END the rally in U.S. stocks
In the past week, as the US dollar continued to pull back, risky assets maintained a good rebound momentum, and the short-term bottom of US stocks has been clearly proved. Oil prices, which are also risky assets, also went up, and came to the focus of long and short in the short term. If bulls go to another city, they will have the opportunity to challenge the early stage and bring more pressure on inflation.Inflation data peaked?The market attaches great importance to the fundamental factor of inflation, because it will directly affect the strength of the Fed's decision-making. After the data was released in March/April,Many investment banks have shouted that inflation has peaked and is about to fall back. However, the performance of commodity prices in recent weeks seems to be not satisf
Beware of the oil！If oil continues to climb Recently，It may END the rally in U.S. stocks
The US Dollar Index may collapse further soon, and How will it Affects Gold Prices?
"No bad news is bad news" is very useful for dollars. After the banking problems were forgotten in March, the market fell into singing and dancing again. The pure safe-haven the US Dollar Index began to slide to the low level in February, and it is difficult to find signs of rebound in the short term. It is expected that the market will further bottom out for more effective support.The long-term time period of the US dollar is very unfavorable, and both the weekly and monthly lines are currently near the fifth signal. This means that in the short term, the bulls will not have the opportunity to fight back until the end of this month, and in the longer term, it may take the monthly line to rebound in June and July. At these two levels, the re-emergence of moving average suppression also imp
The US Dollar Index may collapse further soon, and How will it Affects Gold Prices?
US dollar index is coming to a new high: beware of the decline of oil price
The story of a strong dollar continues. After a brief correction, the US dollar index has risen again in the past two weeks, only one step away from breaking through the previous high.Under the strong dollar environment, risky assets began to come under comprehensive pressure. At present, we need to focus on the performance of oil prices. Crude oil bottomed out last week. Once oil prices fall again, stock indexes and other varieties may face more downside space.The dollar has no rivalsAlthough I have said it many times, I still want to emphasize once again that the strengthening of the US dollar is unstoppable and the trend of winning numbers. In terms of monetary policy, the United States is ahead of Europe and Japan, which ensures the weak pattern of its main rivals. Coupled with the unc
US dollar index is coming to a new high: beware of the decline of oil price
A happy result of raising interest rates: the worst period of QT may has passed
In July, the Federal Reserve decided to raise interest rates by 75 basis points.Powell's wording about slowing down the pace of interest rate hikes was interpreted by the market as a positive factor, helping major assets to continue their recent rebound momentum.From the interest rate side, there is no more room for this year or even next year, but the crux of the future may not only lie in monetary policy.Unlike one person who opposed raising interest rates by 75 basis points in June, all Fed policy makers agreed to increase interest rates by 75 basis points this time.Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stressed the importance of a strong labor market and lowering inflation, and "will not hesitate to take greater actions when necessary".However, he also released doves' signals, saying that an
A happy result of raising interest rates: the worst period of QT may has passed
I'm Worried About A Stock Market Crash, especially when the S&P500 could fall below 3910 position.
US dollar and US stocks both rebounded last week, but there were some differences in rhythm. U.S. stocks were revised after falling for several days, while U.S. stocks began to show signs of bottoming near key positions. According to our default linkage between oil price and risky assets in the past, there is no small risk that US stocks will continue to go down, especially if the S&P 3910 position effectively falls below. Accordingly, dollar bulls should still be a relatively stable direction in the short term.As a matter of fact, Dropping bags for safety was the best option when the S&P500 was above 4100 . Now the question before traders becomes, do you need to turn to short? We believe that there has been a downward signal in the short term, which
I'm Worried About A Stock Market Crash, especially when the S&P500 could fall below 3910 position.
We need to pay more attention to the risk ahead,BUT the rally is unlikely to stop abruptly
Since mid-June, the rebound of US stocks has lasted for nearly two months, and the rebound space has also reached double digits. After the Fed's curse was temporarily lifted, the market seemed to lack the reason and logic to be bearish. However, from the price/graph point of view, the market is near a key level, and bulls may need to pay attention to the risk of short-term decline.The rally is unlikely to stop abruptlyFrom the long-term performance, although the price has reached a cautious position, it is still relatively positive in structure. Whether it is the monthly chart swallowed by the positive line or the breakthrough of the positive line at the end of July, it implies that the rebound of this round is unlikely to end in this small challenge. From the daily chart, 4170-4250 ser
We need to pay more attention to the risk ahead,BUT the rally is unlikely to stop abruptly
Are you bad at predicting market direction? Keep a Close Watch on this two key indicators
The consolidation market in the second quarter is still continuing, but in this seemingly light shock, there have been some changes in the past two weeks, and both groups of risk assets with high linkage before show signs of deviation. Although there are deviations in their respective news and fundamentals, if this totally different market continues for a while, it is likely to be the precursor of a key breakthrough.Crude oil VS copperThis group of combinations is the variety that we focused on in the first quarter. Historically, they have maintained a high degree of synchronization, and after the deviation at the end of last year, they returned to the same direction in the first quarter of this year. However, recently, the situation of weak oil has intensified.As can be seen from the foll
Are you bad at predicting market direction? Keep a Close Watch on this two key indicators
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