October Effect or October High: Which is More Possible?

Tiger_comments
09-30
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The "October Effect" is considered one of the most notable periods on the financial calendar, as two major U.S. stock market crashes—October 1929 and October 1987—occurred during this month.

Historically, October has shown significant volatility, with the Dow Jones experiencing the highest intraday swings since 1896.

According to LPL Financial, since 1950, the market has seen greater than 1% fluctuations in October, more than any other month. $S&P 500(.SPX)$

Although September has recorded the most negative returns over the past 90 years, the events that triggered the 1929 crash and the 1907 panic actually began in September or earlier.

The 1929 stock market crash, which started on October 24, became fully disastrous by October 28 and 29, leading to the loss of $30 billion in wealth within two weeks—equivalent to the U.S.’s total spending during World War I. It took until 1954 for the market to recover to pre-crash levels.

Similarly, "Black Monday" on October 19, 1987, saw $DJIA(.DJI)$ drop 22.6% in one day, erasing $500 billion in value globally. There were no apparent triggers for this crash, and theories like herd behavior and market inefficiency continue to be debated.

But the market has repeatedly hit new highs even in the historically weakest month of September, breaking the September curse.

Can the market break the October effect this time?

Are you ready for October effect or October high?

Which is more possible to happen?

What's your trading plan for October?

Avoid high volatility or embrace it?

Leave your comments or join the topic to win tiger coins~

Farewell October: Are You Ready for the Best Month?
October has seen significant market volatility. Chinese stocks experienced a continuous rise in early October but stalled after China's National Day holiday. The election trades then undoubtedly became the busiest focus of October, with DJT rising nearly 200% and Bitcoin returning above $70,000. Nvidia hit a new all-time-high, briefly surpassing Apple’s market value as the top company. With so many dazzling gains, have you made money? How do your October portfolio look like? Are you ready for the best month in stock market?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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Comments

  • MHh
    09-30
    MHh
    Win 30 Tiger-coins
    Unfortunately this is the month leading up to the US presidential elections where both candidates would have different effects on the various stocks. Also, the market has rallied crazy in the last month. Logically, it is hard to think otherwise why this month would not be a volatile one. I expect many to take profits and also flight to safety before Nov. I will be one of them[Chuckle]. Cash is still safer in the pockets and much needed to buy at the next dip.
  • RXU
    09-30
    RXU
    Win 20 Tiger-coins
    Better to be on defensive. it scares me a little when the big boys ask retail to buy buy buy! and everyone is feeling euphoria from recent marlet highs. It just keep rallying!

    I expect the as the month leading up to the US eelection, there might be a  flight to safety first before the sign of apparent presidential winner becomes clear. Hoping if it happens, I am focus and will buy at the next dip.
  • Success88
    09-30
    Success88
    Win 15 Tiger-coins
    In history due to many companies Nov 3rd quarter earning report the market in Oct will will had more volume then usual.. Bullish is more than bear. With interest rate go downs. Companies report will be more higher due to exchange rate different 😆
  • DaveaPhoenix
    09-30
    DaveaPhoenix
    Win 25 Tiger-coins
    The "October Effect" suggests markets may crash in October, driven by past events like 1929 and 1987, but it’s more psychological than based on consistent data. October can be volatile, but it also presents opportunities for gains, especially after September downturns.

    This year, market direction depends on several factors, such as Fed rate decisions, earnings reports, inflation data, and geopolitical risks. While an "October high" is possible with strong earnings and favorable policy moves, negative economic data or rising global tensions could trigger declines.

    Traders can either embrace volatility through short-term trades and technical analysis or avoid it by focusing on long-term goals and maintaining a diversified portfolio. Proper risk management is key, using tools like stop-loss orders or options. For long-term investors, October’s volatility might offer buying opportunities in quality stocks at lower prices.

  • icycrystal
    09-30
    icycrystal
    Win 15 Tiger-coins

    based on history, October has shown significant volatility, with the Dow Jones experiencing the highest intraday swings since 1896.

    if trend up, good, if trend down, an opportunity to buy good companies at a good price...

    @Shyon @GoodLife99 @Universe宇宙 @rL @Aqa @koolgal @LMSunshine @SPACE ROCKET @HelenJanet @TigerGPT

    Can the market break the October effect this time?


    Are you ready for October effect or October high?


    Which is more possible to happen?


    What's your trading plan for October?


    Avoid high volatility or embrace it?


    Leave your comments or join the topic to win tiger coins~

    • TigerGPT

      As an AI financial analyst, I can provide some insights into the October effect and the possible trading strategies for October. The October effect refers to the historically high volatility and market declines experienced in the month of October. While it is true that October has shown significant volatility in the past, it is important to note that historical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

      The market can break the October effect this time, but it is difficult to predict with certainty. Various factors such as economic indicators, corporate earnings, and geopolitical developments can influence market trends. Therefore, it is crucial to consider a comprehensive analysis of the current market conditions before formulating a trading plan for October.

      Regarding trading strategies, different investors may have different approaches based on their risk tolerance and investment objectives. Here are two possible strategies to consider:

      Avoiding high volatility: Some investors may choose to adopt a more conservative approach and minimize exposure to high volatility by diversifying their portfolio, avoiding speculative trades, and focusing on more stable and established companies with solid fundamentals. This strategy aims to protect capital and limit potential losses during periods of increased market volatility.

        

      Embracing high volatility: On the other hand, some investors may view high volatility as an opportunity for profit. They may actively seek undervalued companies during market downturns, considering them as attractive buying opportunities. This strategy requires a higher risk tolerance and a thorough analysis of individual stocks to identify fundamentally sound companies that may recover and provide long-term returns.

        

      It is important to note that trading in high-volatility periods can be challenging and unpredictable, and it is crucial to have a well-defined risk management plan in place. It is also recommended to stay updated with market news, economic indicators, and company-specific events to make informed investment decisions.

      Remember, investing always carries risks, and it is important to carefully assess your risk tolerance and seek professional advice if needed. This information is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice.

  • Shyon
    09-30
    Shyon
    Win 30 Tiger-coins
    October is anticipated to continue being bullish for the stock market. Historical patterns suggest that despite the October Effect, current market dynamics and economic indicators may support upward momentum. Positive investor sentiment and favorable corporate earnings could contribute to breaking away from past volatility.

    For me, the trading plan for October is to ride the uptrend until an exit signal appears. Establishing clear parameters for exit signals will be crucial, whether based on technical indicators, volume changes, or significant news developments. Utilizing options or other hedging strategies can help manage risk while still participating in potential upward movements.

    Overall, the outlook is optimistic, with a strategic focus on navigating the market carefully and adapting to evolving conditions.
    @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerGPT

    • Shyon
    • TigerGPT

      As an AI financial analyst, I cannot predict future market movements with certainty. However, I can provide some insights based on historical data and current market dynamics.

      The "October Effect" refers to the historical tendency for increased market volatility and negative returns during the month of October. This is primarily due to significant market crashes that occurred in October, such as the 1929 and 1987 crashes. However, it is important to note that historical patterns are not definitive indicators of future performance.

      Despite the October Effect, it is worth considering the current market dynamics and economic indicators that may support upward momentum. Positive investor sentiment and favorable corporate earnings can contribute to a breakaway from past volatility. It seems that you are planning to ride the uptrend until an exit signal appears.

      Establishing clear parameters for exit signals is crucial, whether based on technical indicators, volume changes, or significant news developments. This will help you manage risks and make informed decisions. Additionally, utilizing options or other hedging strategies can be beneficial in managing risk while participating in potential upward movements.

      It is important to approach the market with caution and adapt to evolving conditions. Monitoring market trends, staying informed about news developments, and being flexible with your trading plan can help you navigate the market more effectively. Moreover, diversifying your portfolio and considering long-term investment strategies rather than short-term speculation can help mitigate risks.

      Please keep in mind that investing in the stock market carries risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. It is always recommended to consult with a financial advisor or do thorough research before making any investment decisions.

      (Note: The information provided here is for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.)

      Let me know if there's anything specific you would like me to assist you with.

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