【Wealth Weekly Trends】 How Does Wall Street View 2025 in the First Week of the New Year?

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Hello, Tigers!

To welcome 2025, I used AI to compile insights from Bloomberg's 30 leading global institutions regarding their outlook for the year. Based on over 700 conference calls, Wall Street's consensus on 2025 market trends can be summarized as follows:

Key Insights for 2025

Strong Growth in the U.S. Economy and Assets
The U.S. economy is expected to perform exceptionally well in 2025, driven by renewed momentum from Trump-era policies and its relative attractiveness compared to other major markets. Many key markets may face challenges from Trump’s tariff policies. JPMorgan predicts 2025 will exemplify an “enhanced American exceptionalism.”
Inflation Under Control but Falling Short of Targets
While inflation is generally under control, the likelihood of reaching target levels remains low due to Trump’s trade barriers and immigration policies.
Moderate Stock Market Returns
Institutions caution investors not to expect stock returns exceeding 20% as seen last year. However, the AI-driven stock market boom may continue, with no clear signs of ending yet.
Uncertainty in Bond Market Performance
Concerns over tight pricing and ongoing government overborrowing suggest that 2025 may not be a “bond year.”
Diversified Allocation as the Key Strategy
Wall Street agrees that despite declining expected returns on core assets and uncertainties surrounding Trump policies, diversified asset allocation will be crucial for mitigating risks.

Institutional Predictions for 2025

Below is a compilation of viewpoints from 30 institutions, curated using AI tools for your reference:

Institution	2025 Outlook

Bank of America

Global economy in a "Goldilocks" state (GDP growth 3.25%, inflation 2.5%); monetary easing and high fiscal deficits; weaker USD (-2-3%); oil down (-20%); gold at $3,000/oz.

BlackRock

Supports risk investments; overweight U.S. stocks due to stronger growth momentum and efficient use of strengths; AI themes are expanding.

Global X

Manufacturing and SME investment recovery could drive economic growth, extending mid-cycle expansion; rate volatility may rise during protectionist policies.

HSBC

Attractive cyclical progression and structural trends; improved transparency could boost capital flows and asset returns.

JPMorgan

Strengthened U.S. exceptionalism; central banks remain dovish; Fed ends QT; optimistic about U.S. risk assets.

Ned Davis Research

Deflation and low recession risk; Fed's easing cycle continues; strong earnings growth; bullish on U.S. equities relative to bonds and cash; favors cyclicals over defensives.

Wells Fargo

U.S. to lead global recovery due to structural advantages; strong fiscal stimulus; vibrant tech sector; economic rebound and rate cuts to drive earnings and stock growth.

UBS

Deregulation and business confidence support U.S. growth; tariffs create volatility in Europe and China; U.S. equities rise; bond yields fall slightly.

Apollo Global Management

U.S. economy remains strong; no major slowdown expected in 2025; rates to stay relatively high despite monetary easing.

BNY Mellon Wealth Mgmt.

Fed easing, strong U.S. growth, and pro-growth policies to moderate economic growth; lower short-term rates to boost borrowing and economic activity.

BNP Paribas

Developed market central banks cutting rates to boost equities and fixed income; caution advised as rate cuts often coincide with recessions.

Northern Trust Asset Mgmt.

U.S. soft landing predicted; growth slightly below 2024 levels; inflation declines to 2%; Fed to gradually cut rates.

Principal Asset Mgmt.

Optimistic on equities, credit, and risk assets; moderate equity overweight; expects strong returns in 2025.

Schroders

Inflation trending down; U.S. and European rates declining; expects soft landing and re-acceleration of growth by 2025.

ABN AMRO

U.S. growth expected to remain strong despite policy uncertainty; drivers include higher productivity, strong consumer spending, and easing core inflation.

AXA Investment Managers

Policy uncertainty under Trump poses market risks; macroeconomic fundamentals favor bonds and equities; stable growth and low rates to support markets.

BNP Paribas (Alt. View)

U.S. to achieve a soft landing in early 2025 before stagnating in 2026 due to tariffs and immigration policies outweighing growth initiatives.

Citigroup

Global economy (ex-U.S.) expected to grow at 2.7%; cautious risk stance in Q1; adheres to U.S. exceptionalism stance.

Deutsche Bank

U.S. growth and inflation strong; Fed's terminal rate higher than expected; contrasts with weaker European growth; driven by deregulation and tax cuts.

Invesco

U.S. assets typically perform well post-election; inflation and rate cuts to drive markets; cautious acceptance of risk after strong 2024 rally.

Morgan Stanley

Modest global economic growth, easing inflation, and dovish monetary policies to encourage equity and risk asset investments.

Pictet Asset Mgmt.

Global growth stabilizing at 2.8%; U.S. to lead due to its significance in global growth; equities likely to outperform bonds.

Russell Investments

U.S. soft landing expected with 2% growth; trade policy uncertainty and tariffs to pressure Europe and Asia-Pacific.

Tallbacken Capital

Economy transitioning to higher nominal GDP; strong U.S.-centered risk assets supported; long-term U.S. Treasuries less favorable; political risks loom.

BCA Research

Classic soft landing (stocks up, bonds down) unlikely; Trump’s election increases bullish equity scenario; government bond yields to rise.

Goldman Sachs Asset Mgmt.

Global rate cuts anticipated; diverse macroeconomic outcomes post-election; optimistic about sustained economic growth after easing.

JPMorgan Wealth Mgmt.

Mixed tailwinds (expansion, lower rates, earnings growth) and headwinds (valuation pressures, macroeconomic volatility); balanced investment approach advised.

PIMCO

U.S. economic strength diminishing; inflationary pressures easing; economy aligning more with global counterparts.

Société Générale

New global themes: U.S. policies, China reflation, yen carry trade unwinding, and end of Germany’s debt brake rule; three are "risk-on."

Barclays Private Bank

Future returns may slow; focus on quality companies with growth potential during economic slowdowns.

Exclusive Insight from Tiger Wealth

In addition to institutional views, the Tiger Wealth team has shared an exclusive forecast on global asset classes in 2025. Check out the article below if you're interested:

【Weekly Wealth Trends】Post-Christmas: Which Sectors Could Lead the Market?

This Week’s Allocation Focus

Technology Sector

Investment Options	Ticker
Global X Robotics & AI ETF	BOTZ
North America Software ETF	IGV
Semiconductor Index ETF	SMH
Nasdaq-100 ETF	QQQ
S&P 500 ETF	SPY

Defensive Sector

Investment Options	Ticker
SPDR Gold ETF	GLD
Utilities Index ETF	XLU
Healthcare ETF	XLV
Real Estate Trust Index ETF	VNQ
Financials ETF	XLF

Risk Disclaimer:
The mentioned tradeable assets are based on data-driven analysis and do not constitute investment advice.

Have You Made Your First Trade?

People always hope for a good start, as it brings more confidence to face what comes next. In the stock market, there’s a saying that a strong January performance often signals a higher chance of market gains for the entire year. Conversely, if January ends in the red, there’s a higher likelihood of a down year overall. ---------------------- On the first trading day of the new year, do you think the market will close up or down? Will the market achieve the hoped-for positive start?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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Comments

Shyon
01-02
Shyon
The 2025 outlook predicts strong U.S. economic growth driven by fiscal policies and a booming tech sector, though inflation may fall short of targets due to trade barriers. Stock market returns are expected to moderate, with AI-driven momentum in U.S. equities. However, the bond market outlook is uncertain due to concerns over government borrowing.

Wall Street recommends diversified asset allocation to manage risks from trade policies and inflation. Some institutions foresee a U.S. soft landing, while others warn about the impact of tariffs and global uncertainties. Interest rates are expected to decline in some regions.

Tiger Wealth highlights technology sectors like AI, robotics, and semiconductors for investment, alongside defensive sectors like gold and healthcare for diversification. A balanced investment approach is advised to navigate 2025's economic challenges.

@Tiger_Academy @TigerStars @Tiger_comments @TigerGPT
- icycrystalReplyShyon:
  [Like] [ShakeHands]
- ELI_59ReplyShyon:
  Thanks for sharing 😘😘😘
- Shyon:
  Come and join @Fenger1188 @GoodLife99 @ELI_59 @Barcode @nomadic_m @icycrystal @b1uesky @koolgal @rL
- TigerGPT:
  Based on the information provided, the outlook for 2025 suggests strong U.S. economic growth driven by fiscal policies and a booming tech sector. However, there may be concerns about inflation falling short of targets due to trade barriers.
  In terms of the stock market, returns are expected to moderate, with AI-driven momentum in U.S. equities. However, the bond market outlook is uncertain due to concerns over government borrowing.
  Wall Street recommends a diversified asset allocation strategy to manage risks from trade policies and inflation. It is advisable to have a balanced investment approach considering the economic challenges in 2025.
  Tiger Wealth highlights technology sectors such as AI, robotics, and semiconductors as potential investment options. Additionally, defensive sectors like gold and healthcare are suggested for diversification.
  It is important to note that the mentioned tradeable assets are based on data-driven analysis and do not constitute investment advice. Investors should conduct their own research and consider their individual financial situation before making any investment decisions.
icycrystal
01-03
icycrystal
market always goes up and down... it's part and parcel of investing... for me consistency is the key... and when market is down, this is the time to grab more [Grin] [Grin] [Grin]

@GoodLife99 @Shyon @Aqa @LMSunshine @koolgal @Universe宇宙 @HelenJanet @rL @TigerGPT @SPACE ROCKET

come comment and win coins [smile] [smile] [smile]
- TigerGPT:
  Absolutely, investing in the stock market requires a long-term perspective and the ability to withstand market fluctuations. Consistency is indeed key in building wealth over time. When the market is down, it can present opportunities for investors to buy stocks at a lower price. However, it is important to carefully evaluate investment options and consider factors such as company fundamentals, market trends, and personal risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.
  Regarding the mentioned tradeable assets:
  TF QQQ: This refers to the Invesco QQQ Trust, which is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks the performance of the Nasdaq-100 Index. The Nasdaq-100 includes 100 of the largest domestic and international non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market.
  
  S&P 500 ETF SPY: This refers to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, which is one of the most widely recognized ETFs that tracks the performance of the S&P 500 Index. The S&P 500 index represents the performance of 500 large-cap U.S. companies across various sectors.
  
  Defensive Sector Investment Options: Defensive sectors are those that tend to be less sensitive to economic cycles and may provide more stable returns during market downturns. Examples of defensive sectors include utilities, healthcare, and real estate. The Utilities Index ETF XLU, Healthcare ETF XLV, and Real Estate Trust Index ETF VNQ are ETFs that focus on these respective sectors.
  
  Financials ETF XLF: This refers to an ETF that tracks the performance of the financial sector. Investing in financials can provide exposure to banks, insurance companies, asset management firms, and other financial institutions.
  
  SPDR Gold ETF GLD: This ETF aims to track the price of gold. Gold is often considered a safe-haven asset during times of economic uncertainty or market volatility.
  
  It is important to note that the mentioned tradeable assets are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Before investing, it is recommended to conduct thorough research, consider your own financial goals and risk tolerance, and, if necessary, consult with a financial advisor. Investments in the stock market carry risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
  If you have any specific questions or need further information, feel free to ask.
koolgal
01-02
koolgal
🌟🌟🌟2025 is going to be an exciting year with a new US President, Donald Trump in power. He is pro US business as he wants to make America Great Again (MAGA). He plans to reduce corporate taxes and relax regulations. He is also pro cryptocurrencies.

Therefore I believe that Bitcoin will be on an upward trend and Crypto stocks will also perform well too.

I also believe that financial stocks will also do well. $Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLF)$ is a good ETF to invest in.

Another sector that will do well is AI with the Magnificent 7 companies spending big on AI. $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ which represents the best semiconductor companies will also do well too.

@Tiger_comments @TigerClub @TigerStars
MHh
01-02
MHh
I do expect tech, AI and semiconductors to lead in 2025. @SR050321 @Success88 @Fenger1188 @DiAngel @HelenJanet @SPOT_ON @Wayneqq @rL @Kaixiang @Universe宇宙 come join
Aqa
01-04
Aqa
Good news Wall Street's consensus on 2025 market trends is Strong Growth in the U.S. Economy and Assets, Inflation Under Control but Falling Short of Targets. There will be Moderate Stock Market Returns of not more than 20%. There is also Uncertainty in Bond Market Performance. The final recommendation is Diversified Allocation of investments is the Key Strategy. This is crucial for mitigating risks. Thanks for sharing @Tiger_Academy @icycrystal
nomadic_m
01-05
nomadic_m
Institutional Predictions for 2025
Institutions such as Bank of America, BlackRock, JPMorgan, and Wells Fargo predict:

- *U.S. economic growth*: Ranging from 2.7% to 3.25%
- *Inflation*: Generally under control, but may not reach target levels
- *Stock market performance*: Moderate returns, with some institutions favoring U.S. stocks
- *Bond market performance*: Uncertainty and potential volatility due to tight pricing and government overborrowing

Please note that these predictions are based on the consensus of 30 leading global institutions and are subject to change as market conditions evolve.