🚀🔥 AVGO Ignites the AI Capex Supercycle as ARM Options Detonate 🧠💥 A Market Reckoning Unfolds

$Broadcom(AVGO)$ $ARM Holdings(ARM)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ I’m calling it. The OpenAI–Broadcom custom silicon partnership is not just another deal; it’s the ignition point for the next infrastructure cycle. I’m extremely confident this marks a structural shift in how hyperscalers build compute at scale. $AVGO ripped +10.6%, its biggest single-day gain since 09Apr25, on staggering institutional flow. At the same time, $ARM’s $180C line exploded with millions in premium, signalling where speculative capital is rotating next.

📊 Chart Breakdown

$AVGO closed at $356.70, breaking cleanly through multiple Keltner and Bollinger resistance bands on the 4H chart after a long period of compression below the EMA cluster.

Key levels: breakout pivot $356.70 (intraday anchor), momentum zone above $360, liquidity flush zones $351 and $347.50, deeper support $335, invalidation on daily close below $320.

The S&P 500 closed at $6,654.72 (+1.56%), Nasdaq at $22,694.61 (+2.21%), and Russell 2000 at $2,461.42 (+2.79%). VIX collapsed −12.14% to 19.03, fuelling a classic risk-on breadth surge with 3,271 advancers vs 909 decliners on NYSE and 8,663 vs 2,296 on Nasdaq. This is the tape you get when volatility sellers regain control.

💼 Earnings Snapshot

OpenAI’s deal with Broadcom covers a 10-gigawatt build-out of custom ASIC accelerators, scheduled for deployment between 2026 and 2029. Estimated value: $150B–$200B over multiple years. This joins OpenAI’s recent commitments to Nvidia (up to $100B for data centres), AMD (multi-billion chip deployment), CoreWeave (up to $22.4B for cloud services), and Oracle ($300B cloud agreement). Every dollar of AI capex now flows through this silicon and networking stack.

🏭 Segment Revenues

Broadcom generated $51.6B in FY2024. Semiconductor Solutions contributed $30.1B and Infrastructure Software $21.48B. In Q3 FY2025, revenue reached ~$16B (+22% YoY), with Semiconductor Solutions at $9.2B (+26%) and Infrastructure Software at $6.8B (+17%). AI semiconductor revenue alone was $5.2B, underscoring its strategic positioning.

💰 Flow & Institutional Moves

🚀 $AVGO led today’s unusual options activity, dominating the tape. A $1.01B dark pool block printed at $356.70. Key prints included $500M (1,401,738 contracts), $350.4M (982,418), $90.9M (254,821), $42.2M (118,333), and $30.1M (84,319).

$ARM’s $180C expiring 24Oct25 traded 3,782 contracts between 9:30–10:00 AM, with a $2,165,847 daily premium and an average fill of $5.73. It closed at $6.72, up $4.29 (+176.18%). This aligns with OpenAI’s CPU collaboration with SoftBank’s ARM to complement AVGO’s Titan ASIC rollout. Pelosi’s July 2024 $AVGO disclosure remains the political tailwind gift that keeps on giving. Her $5M buy is now up over 110%.

🧮 Valuation Check

Broadcom’s multiple is expanding because VMware integration and AI networking are compounding free cash flow growth. This is not froth; it’s a credibility reset. Margins remain exceptional and hyperscaler dependence is diversifying as custom silicon becomes core architecture.

🧠 Analyst PTs & Sentiment

The Street lit up instantly. Reuters, Bloomberg, WSJ and AP framed the deal as a structural regime shift. Analysts emphasised Broadcom’s Ethernet-first approach as the backbone of future AI fabrics. Price target consensus sits at $420, implying +25.55% upside from current levels. ARM sentiment is being driven by its CPU design role in OpenAI’s ecosystem. This isn’t divergence; it’s detachment.

📈 My Trade Plan

I’m long bias $AVGO above $356.70, adding at $351 and $347.50. Targets are $385, then $420, with a stretch to $450 if options flow persists. Stop: daily close below $320.

I’m tracking $ARM for momentum continuation above $182 spot, using the $180C line as my signal. On indices, I’m tactically cautious after a breadth surge of this magnitude and watching for a potential liquidity flush into the next open.

🔚 Conclusion

This is not just another rally; it’s a market reckoning. OpenAI has redrawn the semiconductor power map. $AVGO and $ARM are now at the centre of the next AI infrastructure wave. Today’s flows, breadth, and volatility crush confirm it. Prove me wrong.

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OpenAI Family Expanding: Is It A Blessing or A Curse?

OpenAI has been insanely busy lately — one moment it’s doing e-commerce, the next it’s getting into social, and now it’s even launching a browser. It announced plans to deploy 6GW of AMD Instinct GPUs. OpenAI went a step further and partnered with Broadcom to develop custom ASIC chips. Microsoft mainly provides OpenAI’s training compute, while Oracle handles inference workloads. Meanwhile, PayPal officially announced a partnership with OpenAI yesterday — its stock spiked but later gave back most of the gains by the close.

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Comments

Queengirlypops
10-15
Queengirlypops
AVGO ripping 10.6% on that kind of volume is wild. Add in ARM’s 176% options spike and the OpenAI 10GW bombshell and it’s clear this isn’t just hype. NVDA sliding into that triangle makes the whole setup feel massive 🧃
Kiwi Tigress
10-15
Kiwi Tigress
This flow rotation is crazy strong. AVGO’s dark pool block and ARM’s 180C surge feel like coordinated moves around OpenAI’s next phase. If NVDA follows through on this breakout setup too, the AI stack just got real serious.
Tui Jude
10-15
Tui Jude
🔥The ARM $180C flow is wild. A 176% move in a single day says a lot about where smart money’s rotating. Pairing ARM with AVGO and NVDA feels like locking into the AI power core. The 10GW deal really shifts the market map.
1PC
10-14
1PC
Great Insight & Sharing 😊 @JC888 @koolgal @Shyon @Shernice軒嬣 2000 @Aqa @DiAngel
Hen Solo
10-15
Hen Solo
What stands out to me is how the 10GW OpenAI build funnels through AVGO’s ASICs. The scale is unlike anything we’ve seen before. ARM’s CPU integration and NVDA’s $100B pledge make this feel like a structural capex cycle, not a one-off.
Cool Cat Winston
10-15
Cool Cat Winston
💥I’m fully with you on the AVGO breakout. That $356.70 pivot backed by $1B in dark pool flow is serious. Pelosi’s timing still amazes me. NVDA’s role in the OpenAI stack makes this even more compelling to watch.