Gold at $4,200: Will Analysts from Major Banks Be Proven Right?

Tiger_comments
12-02 23:47
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$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ has been rising consecutively in recent days and is trading at six-week highs near $4,250, supported by a weaker dollar and expectations of a Fed rate cut.

Key levels to watch include resistance at $4,245 and $4,300, and support at $4,211 and $4,193.

How do major banks view gold prices? Could we see $4,500–$5,000 per ounce in 2026?

1.A November 30 survey by Goldman Sachs found that many institutional investors expect gold to reach record highs of $5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026.

A survey conducted from November 12 to 14 among over 900 institutional clients. In summary, over 70% of institutional investors foresee continued gold price gains next year

  • 36% of respondents—the largest group—believe gold will maintain momentum and exceed $5,000 by the end of next year.

  • Another 33% expect gold to rise to the $4,500–$5,000 range.

  • Only slightly more than 5% expecting a drop back to $3,500–$4,000.

2. On November 28, Morgan Stanley’s commodities strategy team projected that gold could surge to $4,500 per ounce by mid-2026.

They observed that inflows into gold ETFs have nearly completely reversed after four years of net outflows, reaching levels not seen since 2020. They expect this trend to continue as interest rates decline.

3. On November 27, Deutsche Bank forecast gold approaching $5,000 per ounce in 2026, with a further historic breakthrough in 2027.

In extreme scenarios, gold could even reach $10,000.

Saxo Bank recently published its 2026 “outrageous predictions,” including potential market shocks from breakthroughs in quantum computing or AI system failures, which could push gold to $10,000 per ounce. Some of Saxo Bank’s 2025 predictions, such as an 8% drop in the dollar and NVIDIA surpassing Apple in market capitalization, have already materialized.

This recalls Goldman Sachs’ sharp upward adjustment in April during a major rally. At that time, they raised their year-end forecast to $3,700 per ounce (previously $3,300), with a projected range of $3,650–$3,950, noting that tail risks could drive prices as high as $4,500, though with low probability.

  • Gold in 2026: Do you believe $5,000 is possible?

  • Can gold hold $4200?

  • Extreme Scenarios: Could gold ever reach $10,000?

  • What’s your take for banks’ targets?

  • Leave your comments to win tiger coins~

Silver Another High: Continue to Outperform Gold in This Bull Market?
Silver prices have surged to a historic high, breaking above the peak set during the dramatic short squeeze in the London market this October. Gold has broken out of its consolidation range and is now poised to challenge the $4,300 level. With rate-cut expectations rising, can gold return to new highs in December? And is silver’s new record a positive signal for the market?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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Comments

  • Shyon
    12-02 23:52
    Shyon
    I think the major banks’ outlook shows that gold is in a sustained uptrend, not just a short rally. With Goldman Sachs noting that over 70% of institutional investors expect further gains—and many even eyeing $5,000 by 2026—the broader sentiment has clearly turned bullish. A weaker dollar, expected rate cuts, and renewed ETF inflows all support this view.

    Morgan Stanley’s $4,500 mid-2026 target and Deutsche Bank’s nearly $5,000 forecast make sense to me given the macro setup. As long as gold holds above the $4,200 support zone, I believe the upward trend remains intact, especially with resistance now being tested around $4,245–$4,300.

    As for extreme calls like $10,000, I see those as low-probability tail risks that would require major systemic shocks. Based on current fundamentals, the $4,500–$5,000 range by 2026 feels realistic and is broadly aligned with what the major banks expect.

    $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$

    @Tiger_comments @TigerStars

  • icycrystal
    12-03 03:05
    icycrystal
    @rL @Universe宇宙 @GoodLife99 @Zarkness @LMSunshine @HelenJanet @Aqa @Shyon @koolgal @SPACE ROCKET @nomadic_m @Barcode

    Gold in 2026: Do you believe $5,000 is possible?


    Can gold hold $4200?


    Extreme Scenarios: Could gold ever reach $10,000?


    What’s your take for banks’ targets?


    Leave your comments to win tiger coins~

  • icycrystal
    12-03 03:04
    icycrystal
    gold, silver, they go up and down, they have value in them especially war times as [USD] [USD] [USD] may not be accepted during exchanging of goods (well, that's what the older generations say)... [Victory] [Victory] [Victory]

    so possible able to hold 4200  optimistic scenario perhaps may reach 5000 (though unlikely).

    10000 [Thinking] [Thinking] [Thinking] war times perhaps [OMG] [OMG] [OMG]

  • koolgal
    12-03 06:35
    koolgal
    🌟🌟🌟All that glitters is Gold, with its soaring value suggesting that in times of geopolitical tensions & macroeconomic uncertainty, that Gold is the King of assets to buy and hold.

    When central banks buy Gold in droves and investors panic about inflation, the Gold's shine is a beacon of reliability.

    The high price reflects genuine tangible demand for Gold that has held its value since ancient times,  because people don't trust the "paper glitter" of fiat currencies.

    Can Gold hit USD 4500 to USD 5000 in 2026?

    Analysts like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Bank of America believe so.  The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its rate cutting cycle through to 2026.  This lowers real yields and typically support higher gold prices.

    I believe that Gold will continue its upward momentum too.That is why I have bought $iShares Gold Trust(IAU)$ which is up 58% year todate.

    All that glitters is certainly Gold right now
    @Tiger_comments @Tiger_SG @TigerStars @TigerClub @CaptainTiger

  • WanEH
    12-04 22:41
    WanEH
    我觉得有可能守住 4200 美元。因为最近黄金因市场对 Federal Reserve（美联储）降息的预期升温，导致对非收益资产（如黄金）的需求上升。所以很难跌破4200。
  • L.Lim
    12-04 16:31
    L.Lim
    I bought into gold, but this feels a little circular.
    We hear projections that it might break 4500 or 5000 somewhere in 2026, and we buy in to be involved in the growth, then institutions see the inflow and believe further growth is indeed a solid call to make... and it goes on and on 😂
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