$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$
π My Daily Structure And Technical Read
I am tracking a high energy compression that the market continues to underestimate. $TSLA launched from $435 β $451+ after the first real consolidation since the run from $383 β $459. Yesterday headlines demanded weakness. Today price reclaimed the prior high and internal energy kept building. Price action keeps proving the story, not the fear.
The 4H chart has been tightening for weeks inside a multi month triangle. The pressure is real. Two clear outcomes.
1οΈβ£ A deeper dip into $383 β $365 that reloads momentum for the strongest 2026 upside.
2οΈβ£ A breakout over the blue resistance and a full reclaim of $473 β $480, which triggers expansion into the $500s.
π Diamond Momentum already reset with no structure failure.
Yesterday everyone needed a seller narrative. Today we are +$9.
We just took out yesterdayβs high. Quick. Somebody check the headlines.
Diamond Momentum already resetting hard. No major concerns. Healthy consolidation.
I added again yesterday at $435.
π RSI 53.7, perfect fuel range
π Daily MacD curled up
π Price holding the 13, 21, 55 EMAs
π Tight Keltner + Bollinger squeeze shows ignition setup
π₯ Battle zone: $455 β $460.
Win that and upside accelerates fast.
My long term view remains $600 β $720 into 2026.
π My View On Autonomy, FSD, And Strategic Advantage
π FSD v14.1.x delivered a 20x leap in miles to critical disengagement
441 β 9,200+ miles, the biggest sequential improvement in 4 years of autonomy tracking per Piper Sandler
π FSD v14.2 wide rollout (27 Nov):
β’ Self driving stats
β’ Smarter routing and emergency vehicle handling
β’ New parking intelligence
β’ 30 day HW4 trials live across North America
β’ Real users reporting 3,000+ mile unsupervised drives with natural driving behaviours
π Global expansion:
β’ FSD Supervised active in NZ + Australia
β’ Europe approvals widening into Switzerland + Denmark
β’ Netherlands regulatory friction ongoing
β’ China groundwork advancing
β’ US patent for RF transparent roofs supports Starlink robotaxi connectivity
π€ Optimus Gen 2:
β’ Autonomous laundry folding + precision coordination
β’ Production targets: 1M/yr Fremont, 10M/yr Texas
β’ Entry into $10T+ labour markets
β’ Temporary demo stutter but trajectory intact
π Holiday Update 2025:
β¨ Grok voice navigation
πΈ Tesla Photobooth
πΊοΈ 3D Supercharger visualisations
π Jingle Rush
π± Phone Left Behind device detection
π°π· Cybertruck rollout in South Korea remains strong.
π° My Read On Dark Pool Positioning And Institutional Flow
Smart money continues to position for strength:
π° $43M net call buying
π» $23M net puts sold
π₯ $1.3M sweep into $545C 16 Jan 2026 at the lows
π― $2.2M stacked into $480C 02 Jan 2026
π Off exchange activity shows accumulation > distribution
Institutions are accumulating volatility while retail debates China headlines.
$ARKK trimmed $TSLA and added $BIDU + $WRD which is consistent with their frequent rebalancing.
Morgan Stanley shifted to Equal Weight with a $425 PT, citing valuation but still affirming FSD as the crown jewel.
π Piper Sandler Autonomy Validation
Piper Sandler analyst Alex Potter highlighted the significance of Teslaβs latest autonomy gains after hosting a discussion with the designer of the FSD Community Tracker. Their core metric, miles to critical disengagement, jumped from 441 miles β 9,200+ miles after the rollout of FSD v14.1.x, which he called the biggest sequential improvement in four years of collected data.
Potter noted this sparked a fresh wave of investor interest, especially as a slight downtick in v14.2.x performance raised curiosity around the speed of iteration. He reiterated an Overweight rating and maintained a $500 price target, arguing Tesla is now very close to unsupervised FSD and continues to hold a meaningful competitive lead in autonomy.
π° Broader Market Context And Credibility Check
π¨π³ China retail deliveries down 1% YoY in November at ~73K units
π¨π³ China made EVs up 9.9% YoY
Peak Shanghai output ~100K per month
β Avoiding annual decline would require 120K December, a stretch
Despite this, $TSLA remains up 9% YTD, because investors value AI earnings over short term auto volumes.
π¦ Macro tailwind forming:
87% to 96% probability of a 25 bps rate cut ahead. Time to send it! π
Liquidity supports high duration AI names first.
πΌ Viral behaviour:
A former $TSLA employee holding $650K and waiting for $1M demonstrates how conviction prices future potential.
π― My Trend Map And What Iβm Watching Next
Targets that matter:
β’ First $455
β’ Then $460 confirms power
β’ $473 β $480 is the ignition threshold
β’ Above $500, the chart drives sentiment, not follows it
Support structure firm at $435 β $420
If deeper, $365 is the torque zone for scenario one
𧩠$TSLA is beginning to trade its own innovation curve again, not macro drift
When correlation breaks, momentum becomes self sustaining
π Everything in this structure tells me $TSLA is not stalling. It is coiling. Internal energy is high. Flow is aligned with upside. Autonomy cadence is accelerating faster than the market can price. Optimus is turning into deployable labour at scale. The Fed is turning into a tailwind. Institutions are accumulating while headlines cloud the short term.
π₯ We are watching a chart quietly building the next leg of the entire AI trade. The trigger levels are clear. The torque is loaded. The future valuation drivers are already active. When this range breaks, sentiment will chase, not lead.
Both outcomes point higher. One just launches harder.
ππ‘π₯ Canadian Space Win Signals Rocket Labβs Next Vertical Integration Breakout π₯π‘π
Iβm tracking a fresh validation loop for $RKLB. Rocket Lab has secured $999.9K CAD from the Canadian Space Agency to accelerate development of a medium class reaction wheel designed for the 500 to 1,000 kg satellite market with a 25 Nms torque target. The work will be executed at Rocket Labβs Toronto facility.
I see this as one tile in a larger mosaic. CSA is allocating $14.2M CAD across 18 companies to strengthen sovereign space capability and Rocket Lab is positioned as the one with global scale. This category of reaction wheel is mission critical for satellite attitude control. Bringing it in house expands vertical integration, reduces supplier dependency, and widens future margin capture.
Medium class satellites are the fastest growing orbital segment across commercial Earth observation and defence. Step by step Rocket Lab keeps proving its readiness for high volume spacecraft production. A small cheque can still be a massive signal when it unlocks strategic capability.
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